Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/22)
Introduction
Last Friday’s lineup resulted in just one home run ball but it did have three players score at least 19 FanDuel points. Tuesday night features a full 15-game MLB slate with its fair share of good spots for some sluggers to go yard and a nice group of value pitching options to choose from.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,800) – If you have ever read any of my previous articles you probably know by now that I always consider rostering Grandal when he is at home against a righty as more than 50% of his homers over the last three years have come with that game matchup.
1B – Josh Bell (PIT) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,100) – You’ll want to get exposure to the Pirates bats against Matt Harvey and his 2.50 HR/9 rate to lefties this season. He’ll be pitching in his first game at hitter-friendly Cincinnati as a Red.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dozier is batting .433 with three homers in 30 career at-bats against lefty Matt Boyd.
SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Correa and the Astros will face lefty Andrew Suarez who has been lit up by right-handed hitters this season allowing a .426 wOBA and 3.12 HR/9.
3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Lamb hit his first homer of the season last night after a lengthy DL stint and has a career .221 ISO against righties.
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OF – Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (FanDuel: $5,100 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Stanton is an automatic play against a lefty with a .578 ISO this season.
OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Springer has a .435 wOBA and .362 ISO against lefties this season and will face Giants young lefty Suarez.
OF – Curtis Granderson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Granderson has hit three homers in six career at-bats against Garrett Richards.
Longshot – Tyler O’Neill (STL) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,600) – O’Neill has homered in three straight games and could make it four against Jason Hammel who has allowed four homers over his last two starts and a weak Royals bullpen.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Caleb Smith ($7,200), Trevor Cahill ($7,100), Zack Wheeler ($7,000), Domingo German ($6,800)
DraftKings – Trevor Cahill ($7,400), Zack Wheeler ($7,200), Domingo German ($6,600), Caleb Smith ($6,400)
Results – Friday, May 18
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Gary Sanchez | 0 | 0.0 |
| 1B | Anthony Rizzo | 0 | 19.7 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3B | Matt Chapman | NA | NA |
| SS | Didi Gregorius | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Mike Trout | 1 | 21.7 |
| OF | Joey Gallo | 0 | 22.5 |
| OF | Khris Davis | 0 | 3.0 |
| Longshot | Chris Young | 0 | 6.2 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 7.89 |
| 1B | 22 | 1 | 4.5% | 8.46 |
| 2B | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 9.53 |
| SS | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 11.94 |
| 3B | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 17.21 |
| OF | 65 | 11 | 16.9% | 11.47 |
| Longshot | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 12.53 |
| Total | 195 | 35 | 17.9% | 11.33 |
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