Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/25)
Introduction
Monday kicks off the week with a nice looking 10-game MLB slate. There are a variety of pitchers that we can pick on to serve up some long balls. There is also a good sampling of cheap pitching options to allow you to pay up for some high-priced power hitters.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Grandal has hit over half of his homers this season at home against a righty. Tonight, he gets a right-hander making his first big league start.
1B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $4,700 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Freeman will face Tyler Mahle who has allowed a .402 wOBA and 2.65 HR/9 to lefties this season.
2B – Ozzie Albies (ATL) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,900) – See Freddie Freeman.
SS – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Machado has hit 11 of his 19 homers this season at home against righties and will face Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez who has allowed a .379 wOBA to righties on the road this season.
3B – Christian Villanueva (SD) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Villanueva has crushed lefties this season with a .495 wOBA and .500 ISO, plus get a favorable park adjustment in the heat of Texas.
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OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Cruz has four homers over his last eight games and is 6-for-13 with three doubles and a homer off Andrew Cashner in his career.
OF – Odubel Herrera (PHI) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Herrera recently had a five-game home run streak and is still hitting the ball hard despite not homering in the last two games.
OF – Wil Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Myers has returned from the DL and is batting atop the Padres lineup, he’ll face lefty Cole Hamels who has struggled with righties at home this season allowing a .365 wOBA and 2.68 HR/9.
Longshot – Hunter Renfroe (SD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Renfroe gets the same great matchup as Myers and offers a little bit of salary savings.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Dan Straily ($6,000), Seth Lugo ($5,900)
DraftKings – Seth Lugo ($7,100), Vince Velasquez ($6,600), Dan Straily ($4,500)
Results – Monday, June 18
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Yasmani Grandal | NA | NA |
| 1B | Eric Thames | 0 | 3.0 |
| 2B | Asdrubal Cabrera | 0 | 9.2 |
| 3B | Mike Moustakas | 0 | 6.5 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 0 | 9.2 |
| OF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 3.0 |
| OF | Joey Gallo | 0 | 0.0 |
| OF | Joc Pederson | NA | NA |
| Longshot | Nick Williams | 0 | 0.0 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 8.85 |
| 1B | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | 8.39 |
| 2B | 29 | 3 | 10.3% | 9.28 |
| SS | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 12.24 |
| 3B | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 16.90 |
| OF | 88 | 15 | 17.0% | 11.07 |
| Longshot | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 10.43 |
| Total | 259 | 47 | 18.1% | 11.06 |
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