DFS MLB DraftKings/FanDuel Lineup Advice and Pitcher Chart 7/2/2018
Pitchers
For the Pitcher Chart as well as Hitter picks and analysis, click NEXT!
Max Scherzer vs. Corey Kluber
At the top on Monday is the decision whether to use Scherzer or Kluber. At their prices in these matchups, both can be faded in tournaments, but in cash games, I like the floor each pitcher brings. Both pitchers will face offenses with very low strikeout rates, but both pitchers have OTTs of three (see pitcher chart), the lowest of the day. Scherzer will face the Red Sox in Nationals Park, while Kluber will face the Royals in Kauffman Stadium. The difference is in the ballparks and the opposing offenses. The Red Sox offense has the second highest wRC+, while the Royals have the lowest wRC+, so Kluber earns an edge here. Since the Red Sox travel to the National League and lose their DH, it makes it easier for Scherzer to record strikeouts. Ultimately, weather, opposing lineups and umpires will determine the better play, but my current lean is toward Scherzer. I believe he’s the more talented pitcher, has the higher strikeout percentage, and the park downgrade as well as the league shift should work against the talented Red Sox offense.
Robbie Ray and Carlos Martinez
I’ve paired Ray and Martinez in this section because at their prices ($9,900 and $8,100 respectively), they are underpriced if they are healthy and on a full pitch count. Martinez struggled with walks after coming off of the disabled list, leading me to believe there may be a lingering injury. Ray only threw 83 pitches in his last start, the first since his return from the DL. Both pitchers looked fairly sharp in their last outings, giving me some desire to use them in tournaments at their cheap prices, but I’ll avoid the risks in cash games.
Luis Castillo and Wei-Yin Chen
Here we have the severely underpriced section.
Castillo will face the White Sox in Great American Ballpark. The White Sox will lose their DH in this matchup, forcing James Shields to bat. Castillo has a 5.85 ERA this season, but only a 4.11 SIERA, meaning he’s had some bad luck this year. The White Sox rank second in strikeout rate this year, giving Castillo enough upside for tournaments, and enough of a floor to use him in cash games at his price.
Chen will face the Rays in Marlins Park. The Rays also lose their DH, giving a boost to Chen. Chen is not a great pitcher, but he’s better than $4,600, his salary on DraftKings. The Rays have the fifth highest strikeout rate against lefties, and while their wRC+ is solid, Marlins Park should help hold some of the fly balls Chen allows.
I prefer Castillo to Chen, even at the price difference, but both pitchers should be considered in cash games and tournaments.
For the Pitcher Chart as well as Hitter picks and analysis, click NEXT!
Pitcher Chart
To see my favorite hitters for today’s slate, click NEXT!
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
Last Updated: 7/2/2018 – 9:27 AM CT
| Pitcher | Team | L/R | $Line | OTT | K | +/- | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bumgarner | SFG | L | -124 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 19.2 | 5 2/3 |
| K. Freeland | COL | L | +115 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20.1 | 5 1/3 |
| C. Martinez | STL | R | +132 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22.4 | 5 2/3 |
| R. Ray | ARI | L | -143 | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 35.2 | 6 |
| M. Fiers | DET | R | +139 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17.4 | 5 |
| R. Borucki | TOR | L | -151 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11.1 | 5 |
| C. Kluber | CLE | R | -269 | 3 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 26.9 | 7 |
| J. Junis | KCR | R | +244 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 21.8 | 5 1/3 |
| R. Porcello | BOS | R | +152 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 22.4 | 5 1/3 |
| M. Scherzer | WAS | R | -165 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 37.1 | 7 |
| A. Sanchez | ATL | R | 3.5 | 3.5 | 23.2 | 4 | ||
| J. Loaisiga | NYY | R | 4.5 | 4.5 | 31.6 | 5 | ||
| J. Shields | CHW | R | +161 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 16.2 | 5 |
| L. Castillo | CIN | R | -175 | 4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 22.3 | 6 |
| N. Eovaldi | TBR | R | -123 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 22.4 | 6 1/3 |
| W. Chen | MIA | L | +114 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 16.1 | 5 2/3 |
| K. Gibson | MIN | R | +125 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 23.3 | 5 1/3 |
| B. Suter | MIL | L | -135 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 20 | 5 2/3 |
Key
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = K-OTT
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
Many factors can change between the time I write this article and the time lineups lock. I’ll do my best to update the article, so checking back frequently is encouraged. You can also ask questions on Twitter or Facebook. I’ll do my best to get to all of them!
To see my favorite hitters for today’s slate, click NEXT!
Hitters
Coors Bats
Vegas is down on this game, giving the Giants a team run total of 5, and the Rockies a team run total of 4.5. I think they are about a run too low for each team, so I’ll be attacking this game, especially the Rockies side. Madison Bumgarner has put together two good starts, but both were positive matchups. He faced the Padres and the Rockies in AT&T Park. Facing the Rockies in Coors Field is a completely different game, especially when it’s 90+ degrees. Bumgarner is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball, and while his 2.51 ERA looks nice, his 4.11 SIERA suggests the Rockies should be able to get to him in Coors Field. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, DJ LeMahieu and Chris Iannetta are all in play for cash games and tournaments. On the side Giants, Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen will have the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland and are both high-quality cash game options. Allen Hanson will also be a cash game option if he’s leading off due to his speed. Finally, Brandon Belt is one of my favorite tournament plays. Many will avoid him because it’s lefty vs. lefty, but with Coors, Freeland could be chased early, allowing Belt to see pitches from a middling bullpen.
Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge
The Yankees will face Anibal Sanchez in Yankee Stadium. They have a team run total of 5.5, highest on the slate. Sanchez has a 2.68 ERA and a 4.05 SIERA, so like Bumgarner, he should regress as well. The Yankees options should be considered with Coors bats as the best on the slate. Stanton and Judge have the two highest home run projections on the slate, and their projection is one of the highest I’ve seen all year. Choosing between the two, I’ll take Stanton. He’s $300 cheaper on DraftKings and is the better overall hitter. A full Yankees stack is viable for tournaments, but I’m not currently considering any other Yankees in cash games.
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