Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/30)
Introduction
Monday brings a solid nine-game MLB DFS slate. The slate doesn’t have the dazzle of a game at Coors Field or Globe Life Park in Arlington to headline it but there are still some solid hitting environments and pitchers to pick on for homers.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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Lineup
C – Kurt Suzuki (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) / Tyler Flowers (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Give me whichever Braves catcher starts behind the plate on Monday as they both mash left-handed pitchers and face Marlins southpaw Wei-Yin Chen who has allowed a .458 wOBA and 2.81 HR/9 to righties on the road this season.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Goldschmidt homered on Sunday, has five hits over his last three games and has posted a .439 wOBA and .316 ISO against lefties this season.
2B – Ozzie Albies (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Read Chen stats from catcher writeup and add in Albies .365 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties.
SS – Jorge Polanco (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Polanco has a .453 wOBA against righties and will face righty Shane Bieber who has allowed 18 runs over his last four starts and has given up a .444 wOBA to lefties this season.
3B – Christian Villanueva (SD) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Villanueva has massive home splits versus lefties with a .585 wOBA and .583 ISO and faces lefty Derek Holland who has allowed 1.53 HR/9 to righties this year.
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OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,500) – All 14 of Pederson’s homers have come off righties this season with a .402 wOBA and .297 ISO against them.
OF – Eddie Rosario (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Rosario will face the lefty-friendly Bieber and bring his .427 wOBA and .287 ISO this season at home against righties to the plate.
OF – Wil Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Myers is batting .302 with seven homers in July and has a .387 wOBA and .346 ISO against southpaws this season.
Longshot – Justin Bour (MIA) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Bour has a career .412 average with three extra-base hits in 17 at-bats versus Julio Teheran and has posted a .352 wOBA and .219 ISO against righties this season.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Robbie Ray ($8,300), Carlos Martinez ($7,700)
DraftKings – Robbie Ray ($8,000), Carlos Martinez ($7,900), Edwin Jackson ($6,300)
Results – Tuesday, July 24
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Yadier Molina | 0 | 3.0 |
| 1B | Mitch Moreland | 0 | 3.0 |
| 2B | Rougned Odor | 0- | 15.4 |
| 3B | Eugenio Suarez | 1 | 25.2 |
| SS | Paul DeJong | 0 | 12.2 |
| OF | George Springer | 1 | 25.4 |
| OF | Khris Davis | 1 | 25.7 |
| OF | Nelson Cruz | 0 | 6.2 |
| Longshot | Chad Pinder | 0 | 0.0 |
Overall Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.77 |
| 1B | 35 | 2 | 5.7% | 7.88 |
| 2B | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 10.58 |
| SS | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 12.90 |
| 3B | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 16.16 |
| OF | 103 | 20 | 19.4% | 11.43 |
| Longshot | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.54 |
| Total | 303 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.26 |
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