NFL DFS Week 2 Battle Analysis By Infantryboys For 9/20

Every week during the NFL season, I’m going to be presenting a “battle analysis” for the week’s slate of games. I’ll be giving you my best plays of the week and why I think they’re the best values. If you’re coming over from season long fantasy football and you’re new to DFS, you’ll want to check out my article “The Ten Commandments of NFL Daily Fantasy Sport.” Remember, DFS isn’t about targeting stars, it’s about targeting VALUE. I’ll also be letting you know why I’m avoiding, or “fading” some popular players.

My top targets of the week will be presented in two categories. I stole this terminology from my days in the Army. First there are the 50 meter targets. These players represent the safest plays and best value of the week. Secondly there will also be my 300 meter targets. These players still represent good value but are more “hit or miss” than the 50 meter targets. Generally speaking, 300 meter targets are best reserved for tournaments only.

You’ll see I’ve presented stats for both teams in every contest. These are weighted stats from Football Outsiders, rather than just generic team averages. I strongly suggest using Football Outsiders in your research as well. I’ll begin using 2015 stats in week 5. Until then, the sample size is just too small to be relevant.

Finally, always be careful with players from the Thursday night game in GPPs. They’ll be artificially, highly owned. I generally tend to fade these players.

LEGEND:

50M TARGETS

Best value and safest targets on the slate. These players make good cash and tournament plays.

300M TARGETS

Good value and high upside, but can be “boom or bust.” These players are best used in tournaments.

 

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY

Vegas – O/U – 42 ; Kansas City – 3

DENVER

2014 wDef – 3^rd Pass D – 5^th, Run D – 3^rd

2014 wOff – 6^th Pass O – 3^rd, Run O – 7^th

After struggling through the last few weeks of the 2014 season and the 2015 preseason, Peyton Manning struggled badly against a very average Baltimore Ravens pass defense. While it may be too early to declare one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time to be done, he’s someone I won’t be targeting until he can prove he’s back on track. Manning’s inability to consistently hit mid to long range routes downgrades this entire offense.

To further muddy the picture, both running backs, Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson had the same number of carries against the Ravens. Anderson was expected to be the featured back, but after an outstanding preseason Hillman, who was the more effective of the two against the Ravens, has earned more playing time. The Chiefs can be run on, but Anderson is no more than a 300M target, given the current situation in Denver and question about his hand.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

C.J. Anderson ($8,000 FD; $6,700 DK)

KANSAS CITY

2014 wDef – 20^th  Pass D – 13^th , Run D – 26^th

2014 wOff – 11^th Pass O – 14^th, Run O – 5^th

Denver still possesses a borderline elite defense and the Chiefs have a very average offense. Given this and the fact that the game will be played on Thursday night, the majority of Kansas City’s offense is an easy fade for me. The one possible exception is TE Travis Kelce. He has the trust of QB Alex Smith, has a decent match up as the Broncos ranked 13th in covering the tight end position last season and may present the Chiefs best offensive option in this game.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Travis Kelce ($6,600 FD; $5,100 DK)

 

HOUSTON @ CAROLINA

Vegas – O/U – 40.5; Carolina – 3

HOUSTON

2014 wDef – 4^th Pass D – 6^th, Run D – 16^th

2014 wOff – 23^rd Pass O – 18^th, Run O – 24^th

The Texans offense was well below average last season and absolutely abysmal in Week 1, with QB Brian Hoyer being benched in the second half. While the Panthers are not stout against the run, the Texans running back situation has devolved into a committee of plodders, with Arian Foster out. The only player on my radar here is WR DeAndre Hopkins, who was targeted a whopping 13 times last week. With Foster on the shelf and Andre Jonson now a Colt, Hopkins is the only legitimate offensive threat the team possesses.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100 FD; $7,400 DK)

CAROLINA

2014 wDef – 9^th Pass D- 9^th, Run D – 23^rd

2014 wOff – 20^th Pass O – 23^rd, Run O – 16^th

As expected, Carolina’s offense struggled last week without WR Kelvin Benjamin against an under rated Jaguars defense. TE Greg Olsen, who had a TD and another long gain called back against the Jags, remains a target simply because there are no other viable receiving threats on this team. Olsen is a distant 300M target, because Houston was ranked 3^rd last season defending the TE position. Until another viable receiver emerges,  the rest of the receiving corps will continue to be off my radar.

RB Jonathan Stewart is one player from this team who is on my radar. He has a decent match up and game flow is on his side. He also got 22 touches last week, so he’s someone who should be heavily involved in the offense on Sunday.

50M TARGETS

Jonathan Stewart ($6,800 FD; $5,500 DK)

300M TARGETS

Greg Olsen ($6,000 FD; $4,900 DK)

Panthers Defense ($4,700 FD; $3,100 DK)

 

SAN FRANCISCO @ PITTSBURGH

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Pittsburgh – 6.5

SAN FRANCISCO

2014 wDef – 5^th Pass D – 4^th, Run D – 10^th

2014 wOff –15^th Pass O – 21^st, Run O – 8^th

RB Carlos Hyde opened eyes with a strong preseason and was an absolute beast Monday night, accounting for 182 total yards and two touchdowns. With Reggie Bush doubtful for this game, Hyde is a decent play against a bad Pittsburgh defense that allowed a 4.6 ypc against Patriots back-up Dion Lewis, but game flow concerns limit him to a 300M, GPP only target.

According to reports, QB Colin Kaepernick spent the offseason working on his mechanics and it showed against a good Vikings defense. Kaepernick is not someone I normally trust, but the Pittsburgh secondary was terrible last year and even worse in the season opener. He makes a nice contrarian play in tournaments, at a reduced salary.

While I believe the 49ers have a couple of decent targets, remember that west coast teams coming east for 1PM starts traditionally play poorly and the 49ers are on a short week.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Colin Kaepernick ($7,800 FD; $6,600 DK)

Carlos Hyde ($7,000 FD; $5,100 DK)

PITTSBURGH

2014 wDef – 27^th Pass D- 30^th, Run D 17^th

2014 wOff – 2^nd Pass O – 1^st, Run O – 11^th

There’s a great advantage in targeting players on teams with bad defenses, they usually have to keep the pedal down, even when they’re favored. This is the case with the Pittsburgh game, all the players are in play for me. A word of warning here though, these players are pricey and we don’t know a lot about the 49ers defense yet, since they have so many new faces. Exercise caution.

I think many inexperienced players will overreact to last game where DeAngelo Williams ran for 127 yards against a shaky Patriots defense. If you’re betting on the 32 year old Williams catching lightning in a bottle again against a team that stuffed Adrian Peterson, you’re entirely on your own.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Ben Roethlisberger ($8,400 FD; $7,200 DK)

Antonio Brown ($9,200 FD; $8,800 DK)

Heath Miller ($5,400; $3,500 DK)

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS

Vegas – O/U – 47; New Orleans – 10

TAMPA BAY

2014 wDef – 15^th Pass D – 23^rd, Run D – 8^th

2014 wOff – 32^nd Pass O – 32^nd, Run O – 31^st

The Saints defense was one of the worst in the NFL last season and was just as bad Sunday against an average Cardinals defense. The problem here is Tampa Bat was just as bad offensively and rookie QB Jameis Winston was a complete disaster in his rookie debut. RB Doug Martin looks to be back in form, but with the Saints installed at such heavy favorites, he should fall victim to game flow, as the Bucs will probably be playing catch up all day. The return of WR Mike Evans should help Winston, but until he shows some consistency, this team is hands off for me.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

NEW ORLEANS

2014 wDef – 28^th Pass D – 27^th , Run D – 32^nd

2014 wOff – 9^th Pass O – 9^th, Run O – 9^th

Tampa Bay had the 23rd ranked defense last season and were carved up by rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the rest of the Titans anemic offense Sunday. QB Drew Brees and WR Brandin Cooks are strong tournament plays. Cooks was targeted 8 times against the Cardinals and won’t have to contend with a top corner back like Patrick Peterson this week. The fact that the Saints are 10 point favorites restrict these players to GPP only.

Game flow would suggest RB Mark Ingram is in play. However, the Bucs were fairly stout against the run and predictably the Saints running back situation is devolving into a committee. The expected return of C.J. Spiller further hurts Ingram’s value.

50M TARGETS

Zack Hocker ($4,500 FD)

300M TARGETS

Drew Brees ($8,900 FD; $7,800 DK)

Brandin Cooks ($7,400 FD, $7,000 DK)

 

DETROIT @ MINNESOTA

Vegas – O/U – 44; Minnesota – 3

DETROIT

2014 wDef – 7^th Pass D – 8^th , Run D – 1^st

2014 wOff – 17^th Pass O – 17^th, Run O – 29^th

With age and injury slowing Calvin Johnson, Detroit has a lot of pretty good players but no real stars, which makes them very match up dependent. The Vikings defense improved as the season went along and played well in the preseason, so there aren’t many obvious choices here. The one exception for me is rookie RB Ameer Abdullah, who looks like a threat to score every time he touches the ball, against a defense that got owned by Carlos Hyde Monday.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Ameer Abdullah ($6,400 FD; $4,500 DK)

MINNESOTA

2014 wDef – 23^rd Pass D – 19^th , Run D – 25^th

2014 wOff – 16^th Pass O – 29^th, Run O – 4^th

I’m not sure what to make of the Vikings offense. They steadily improved last season, looked great in the preseason, got back Adrian Peterson and then scored a whopping 3 points against a 49ers defense in transition. I wouldn’t necessarily try to talk anyone out of any Viking players, Detroit’s pass defense utterly collapsed last week, but I’m going to take a wait and see attitude with them.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

ARIZONA @ CHICAGO

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Arizona – 2

ARIZONA

2014 wDef – 14^th Pass D – 14^th, Run D – 6^th

2014 wOff – 24^th Pass O – 19^th, Run O – 30^th

QB Carson Palmer and the rest of the Cardinals offense carved up a bad Saints defense last Sunday. This Sunday, they face a Bears defense that was even worse last season. Palmer, who threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs, is a very consistent QB who rarely has a dud of a game that completely wrecks your line up. He’s my favorite cash game target at the position on FanDuel. WR John Brown has developed a nice chemistry with his QB, resulting in 7 targets last week. At his price he’s a borderline 50M target on DraftKings.

The Cardinals running back situation is murkier though. Already a borderline committee, the injury to starter Andre Ellington muddied the water even more. When Ellington went down, they turned to aging Chris Johnson who has completely lost the great burst he once had. Regardless if Ellington can play, this is a situation to avoid.

50M TARGETS

Carson Palmer ($7,800 FD; $6,700 DK)

300M TARGETS

John Brown ($6,200 FD; $5,100 DK)

CHICAGO

2014 wDef – 32^nd Pass D – 29^th, Run D – 21^st

2014 wOff – 19^th Pass O – 16^th, Run O – 11^th

Matt Forte had a monster game against Green Bay, racking up 166 total yards, 5 receptions and a TD. The problem now is that his price went up and he faces a much tougher run defense in the Cardinals. While it’s possible for Forte to have another big game, I’ll be fading him here.

The Bears will also be facing a tough task in the passing game, but the Cardinals do have a chink in their armor. Last season they ranked 27th against opposing tight ends. Martellus Bennett is one of QB Jay Cutler‘s favorite targets, he got 129 last season. With the rest of the Bears receiving corps all slowed with injuries, Bennett makes for a very strong play at his reasonable salary.

50M TARGETS

Martellus Bennett ($6,100 FD; $4,500 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

 

NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO

Vegas – O/U – 45; New England – 1

NEW ENGLAND

2014 wDef – 13^th Pass D – 12^th, Run D – 13^th

2014 wOff – 3^rd Pass O- 5^th, Run O -14^th

I’m going to make this one simple. Buffalo has an elite defense. If you need any proof look at their defensive ranking from a year ago or what they did against a fine Colts offense last week. While it POSSIBLE for any Patriot to have a good game, I’m certainly not going to pay their salaries against this defense.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

BUFFALO

2014 wDef – 2^nd.  Pass D – 1^st, Run D – 12^th

2014 wOff – 25^th Pass O – 24^th, Run O – 28^th

The Patriots defense, without departed free agent CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, looked very ordinary against the Steelers Thursday night. The problem here is that the Bills lack the talent to take advantage of this. QB Tyrod Taylor had a nice first start against Cleveland, but his price has jumped considerably and I don’t trust a QB in their second start against Bill Belichick.

A possible play here is RB LeSean McCoy. There is some danger with McCoy though, since he probably still won’t be 100% from his hamstring injury. Also since last year with the Eagles there’s been a disturbing trend with McCoy getting vultured at the goal line, which continued last week. For those reasons he’s a 300M target for me.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

LeSean McCoy ($8,100 FD; $6,600 DK)

 

SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Cincinnati – 3.5

SAN DIEGO

2014 wDef – 21^th Pass D – 25^th, Run D – 15^th

2014 wOff – 10^th Pass O – 7^th, Run O – 25^th

San Diego fell behind Detroit early and then came storming back in the second half to win the game. The fact that San Diego had to throw so much (42 passing attempts) is going to skew the stats a bit, so don’t over react to them. WR Keenan Allen had an eye-popping 17 targets last week. He’s a nice play this week, given game flow and San Diego’s lack of other weapons, but pass defense is a strength of the Bengals, so temper expectations.

San Diego will try to run the ball, but with the Bengals expected to win, will probably have to pass more in the second quarter. This sets the game up well for 3rd down/red zone RB Danny Woodhead. Woodhead had a very good game in the opener and with game flow potentially working in his favor, becomes a nice value option.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Keenan Allen ($8,200 FD; $7,100 DK)

Danny Woodhead ($6,200 FD; $4,000 DK)

CINCINNATI

2014 wDef – 17^th Pass D – 7^th, Run D – 28^th

2014 wOff – 21^st Pass O – 21^st, Run O – 10^th

Cincinnati likes to run the ball with power back Jeremy Hill. Against Oakland he wasn’t needed much in the second half so he didn’t have the big numbers many expected. Here he has a good match up against a middle of the road run defense and game flow working in his favor. He’s a very strong play in this game.

The Bengals passing game is very interesting here. QB Andy Dalton is deeply discounted across the industry. He can be very streaky, so he’s GPP only, but is a very good value against a pretty bad pass defense. TE Tyler Eifert is a very strong play as well. He had a monster game against the Raiders, going for a 9/104/2 line after missing virtually all of last season with injuries. With defenses paying attention to WR A.J. Green and the other Bengal receivers, the athletic Eifert usually enjoys single coverage and has developed good chemistry with Dalton.

50M TARGETS

Jeremy Hill ($8,400 FD; $7,400 DK)

300M TARGETS

Tyler Eifert ($5,900 FD; $4,200 DK)

Andy Dalton ($6,900 FD; $5,800)

 

TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND

Vegas – O/U – 41.5; Cleveland – 2.5

TENNESSEE

2014 wDef – 29^th Pass D – 26^th , Run D – 29^th

2014 wOff – 31^st Pass O – 30^th, Run O – 21^st

The two teams with arguably the least talent at the offensive skill positions (with the possible exception of Marcus Mariota) square off against each other in this game. Mariota had a nice debut against the Buccaneers but the Browns have a stingy pass defense. I’m going to wait and see for a while with Mariota. The Cleveland defense is susceptible to the run, but Tennessee’s committee of plodders, although cheap aren’t recommended options here for me.

The Titans defense makes for a nice play on this slate. Regardless of who starts for the Browns, both QBs are potential turnover machines. Even though they’re playing on the road where defenses traditionally don’t score as highly, the Browns lack of play making talent should offset this disadvantage.

50M TARGETS

Titans Defense ($4,600 FD; $3,000 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

CLEVELAND

2014 wDef – 8^th Pass D – 2^nd , Run D – 31^st

2014 wOff – 28^th Pass O – 22^nd, Run O – 26^th

As far as play maker talent goes, the Browns are in even worse shape than the Titans because at least Mariota has potential. I highly doubt any Browns players will be finding their way into any of my line ups this season.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

ATLANTA @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Vegas – O/U – 50.5; New York – 2.5

ATLANTA

2014 wDef – 31^st Pass D – 31^st, Run D – 30^th

2014 wOff – 12^th Pass O – 8^th, Run O – 22^nd

This game features the second highest over/under on the slate and is predicted to be very close. Neither team runs the ball particularly well, although rookie RB did have a nice game against Philadelphia. While I wouldn’t talk you out of him, game flow is against him and he shares the backfield with Devonta Freeman.

Julio Jones is the Falcons main weapon and he had a monster game against the Eagles. He faces the Giants 21st ranked pass defense and is one of the best plays at WR on the slate. QB Matt Ryan is definitely in play as well, but his price makes him a tournament only play for me. Jones is such a target magnet, he makes the other members of the receiving corps too variable from week to week.

50M TARGETS

Julio Jones ($8,800 FD; $8,900 DK)

300M TARGETS

Matt Ryan ($8,700 FD; $7,400 DK)

NEW YORK GIANTS

2014 wDef – 26^th Pass D – 21^st , Run D – 27^th

2014 wOff – 14^th Pass O – 12^th, Run O – 23^rd

The Giants biggest weakness is their offensive line. Against the Cowboys below average pass rush, the line was pushed around all game, leaving QB little time to throw down the field. Eli Manning spent most of the game checking down rather than going down the field. This hurt superstar WR Odell Beckham Jr’s production tremendously. The Falcons don’t possess a good defense or pass rush, but until the Giants line solidifies, it’s hard to completely trust the passing game here.

The running game, on the other hand is a mess. The offensive line can’t get any push, making it difficult to find holes and the position looks to be devolving into a three-man committee. Avoid.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Odell Beckham Jr ($8,700 FD; $8,800 DK)

Eli Manning ($8,000 FD; $7,100 DK)

Josh Brown ($4,500 FD)

 

St LOUIS @ WASHINGTON

Vegas – O/U – 41; St Louis – 3

St LOUIS

2014 wDef – 22^nd.  Pass D – 24^th, Run D – 11^th

2014 wOff – 6^th Pass O – 20^th, Run O – 4^th

This is another of those games that we traditionally like to avoid in daily fantasy football. There’s very little talent on the offense here and what there is doesn’t match up well against an improved Washington defense that held Miami to 10 offensive points last week. The one intriguing play here is the Rams defense, which had a huge game against the Redskins last season.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Rams Defense ($4,900 FD; $3,100 DK)

WASHINGTON

2014 wDef – 30^th Pass D – 32^nd, Run D – 9^th

2014 wOff – 30^th Pass O 25^th, Run O – 19^th

Kirk Cousins has the ability to move the team and throw multiple touchdown passes. He also has the ability to throw multiple interceptions and sulk on the sidelines. He threw 2 last week against the Dolphins in a game where Washington was completely shut out the entire second half. Against a good Rams defense, I’m completely fading the Redskins.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE

Vegas – O/U – 41.5; Miami – 6

MIAMI

2014 wDef – 25^th Pass D – 16^th, Run D – 18^th

2014 wOff – 7^th Pass O – 11^th, Run O – 2^nd

The Dolphins have a middle of the road offense that struggled to move the ball at Washington. They’ll be facing a decent Jaguars defense that stymied the Panthers for much of the day last Sunday and held Panther running backs to 70 yards. Miami only gained 74 yards on the ground themselves last week. RB Lamar Miller will have some good games in better match ups this season, but he’s not a recommended option here.

WR Jarvis Landry was QB Ryan Tannehill‘s favorite receiver last season and this has continued this year. Landry was targeted 12 times on a team that threw 34 times last week compared to only 18 rushes. Landry is a 300M target on FanDuel but a 50M target on Draft Kings and other sites which offer a full point per reception.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Jarvis Landry ($7,100 FD; $5,900 DK)

JACKSONVILLE

2014 wDef – 16^th Pass D 17^th, Run D 20^th

2014 wOff – 29th Pass O – 32nd, Run O – 20th

QB Blake Bortles made considerable improvements this preseason after a rocky rookie season and will be a recommended option in better match ups later in the season. However he and the rest of the Jaguars passing game are off-limits for me against the Dolphins. One player on my radar is rookie RB T.Y. Yeldon. Yeldon dominated the early down work, after rumors of a possible committee and was also involved in the passing game. Game flow concerns and a low over/under limit Yeldon to tournament considerations only.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

T.Y. Yeldon ($6,500 FD; $4,800 DK)

 

BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND

Vegas – O/U – 42; Baltimore – 6

BALTIMORE

2014 wDef – 12^th Pass D – 15^th , Run D – 5^th

2014 wOff – 8^th Pass O – 6^th, Run O – 18^th

Baltimore had a rough time getting anything going offensively against Denver’s elite defense last week. That shouldn’t be the case against the Raiders 27th ranked defense. My favorite target is RB Justin Forsett. With the Ravens expected to win, game flow is in his favor and he has a decent match up against Oakland’s 14th ranked run defense. Also keep in mind that Forsett is featured in their passing game, which raises Forsett’s floor immensely. The Raiders ranked 24th last season covering RBs out of the backfield.

Logic would dictate that the Ravens would attack the Raiders 28th ranked pass defense, but outside of aging Steve Smith Sr, QB Joe Flacco has little talent to throw to.  I don’t trust Baltimore’s passing game with much safer options at similar prices on this week’s slate of games.

50M TARGETS

Justin Forsett ($7,800 FD; $6,200 DK)

300M TARGETS

Ravens Defense ($5,000 FD; $2,900 DK)

OAKLAND

2014 wDef – 24^th Pass D – 28^th, Run D – 14^th

2014 wOff – 27^th Pass O – 28^th, Run O – 32^nd

We don’t know who the Raiders starting QB will be, David Carr injured his hand Sunday, but regardless of who it ends up being, I want no part of this team against a Baltimore defense that held Denver to 4 field goals on Sunday.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA

Vegas – O/U – 54.5; Philadelphia – 3.5

DALLAS

2014 wDef – 19^th Pass D – 19^th, Run D – 22^nd

2014 wOff –4^th Pass O – 4^th, Run O – 3^rd

This game features the highest over/under of the day and if the Eagles have their way, will be a fast paced game. The Cowboys will try to pound the ball on the ground, especially with WR Dez Bryant out. RB Joseph Randle looked good running behind the league’s best line Sunday night, but with the looming specter of a committee (Dallas has said they’ll ride the hot hand) I have to see a lot more before I can trust this situation.

Without Dez available, a lot of value opens up in the Dallas passing game. Dallas turned to aging TE Jason Witten Sunday, but we can’t expect him to carry the load at his age every week. WRs Terrence Williams and Cole Beasley are definitely in play, but as 300M targets, since we don’t know how QB Tony Romo will spread the targets.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Jason Witten ($6,000 FD; $4,300 DK)

Terrence Williams ($6,300 FD; $4,200 DK)

Cole Beasley ($5,700 FD; $3,300 DK)

PHILADELPHIA

2014 wDef – 10^th Pass D – 18^th , Run D – 7^th

2014 wOff – 14^th Pass O – 15^th, Run O – 13^th

The vaunted Chip Kelly offense sputtered under new QB Sam Bradford against Atlanta’s bad defense before picking it up in the second half. Bradford didn’t play too much in the preseason, so we have little to go on, but if the second half of the Monday night game is any indication, the Eagles should be fine. They face a second-rate Dallas secondary missing it’s best corner back but game flow concerns limit Bradford to a 300M target. #1 WR Jordan Matthews, at his price, is a bit more enticing, especially on Fan Duel.

RB DeMarco Murray is in position to have a good game and might have some revenge motives as well. Dallas has a below average run defense and game flow favors Murray. There are concerns however. He shares the backfield with Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews and the very nature of Kelly’s offense may leave him on the sidelines for key stretches, as it did Monday night.

50M TARGETS

Jordan Matthews ($7,000 FD; $7,100 DK)

300M TARGETS

Sam Bradford ($7,500 FD; $6,900 DK)

DeMarco Murray ($8,300 FD; $7,000 DK)

Cody Parkey ($5,000)

 

SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY

Vegas – O/U – 49; Green Bay – 3

SEATTLE

2014 wDef – 1st  Pass D – 3^rd , Run D – 2^nd

2014 wOff – 5^th Pass O – 10^th, Run O – 1^st

The Seahawks had a rough go of it last week against the Rams. Don’t overreact to that game. Seattle has lost 3 of its last 4 games in St Louis and struggled in the game they won. They just don’t play well there for some reason. This week Seattle gets to play a Green Bay team that ranked 26th against the run last season and were just gouged by Matt Forte and the Bears for 189 yards on the ground. This is a dream match up for Marshawn Lynch, who had to face arguably the best front 4 in the league last week.

Vegas predicts a close, high scoring game. QB Russell Wilson, with his running ability makes for a good target against a middle of the pack passing defense. Wilson’s running gives him a high floor and makes him a great cash game value, especially on Draft Kings. Athletic TE Jimmy Graham has a good match up and had a great first game with the Seahawks last week slashing a 6/51/1 line against a very good Rams defense. He makes an attractive alternative to Rob Gronkowski, if you want to pay up for the position.

50M TARGETS

Marshawn Lynch ($8,500 FD; $7,200 DK)

300M TARGETS

Jimmy Graham ($7,100 FD; $5,800 DK)

Russell Wilson ($8,500 FD; $7,300 DK)

GREEN BAY

2014 wDef – 18^th  Pass D – 11^th , Run D – 24^th

2014 wOff – 1^st Pass O – 2^nd, Run O – 6^th

As I mentioned earlier, we shouldn’t overreact to Seattle loss Sunday, but of legitimate concern is the absence of Cam Chancellor. The Seahawks still have a very strong defense and I believe QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb are over priced for this match up. WR Davante Adams is still discounted across the industry and makes a nice alternative to his more highly owned teammates.

Game flow and a high over/under seem to point to Eddie Lacy, but Seattle does have the #1 run defense from a year ago, making this a very difficult position for Lacy. He’s in play, but he’s a distant 300M target.

50M TARGETS

Davante Adams ($6,400 FD; $4,900 DK)

300M TARGETS

Eddie Lacy ($8,100 FD; $7,200 DK)

 

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS

Vegas – O/U – 47; Indianapolis – 7

NEW YORK JETS

2014 wDef – 22^nd.  Pass D – 24^th, Run D – 11^th

2014 wOff – 18^th Pass O – 27^th, Run O – 17^th

I believe Vegas is catering more towards what people think will happen in this game; I think it will be closer and lower scoring than many believe. The Colts biggest weakness is containing big, physical running backs. Think back to last year to what Jonas Grey and LaGarrette Blount of the Patriots or to what Buffalo’s big backs did to the Colts last week. Chris Ivory, who had a great game last week, has the early down work to himself and is a terrific value.

The Jets passing game is off-limits for me. Greg Toler should be back to team with Vontae Davis at corner back for the Colts, and I can’t bring myself to trust Ryan Fitzpatrick.

50M TARGETS

Chris Ivory ($6,900 FD; $4,300 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

INDIANAPOLIS

2014 wDef – 11^th Pass D – 10^th, Run D – 19^th

2014 wOff – 22^nd Pass O – 13^th, Run O – 27^th

With the addition of CB Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary is much improved from last year and the front 7 will bring a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck, making the Colts passing game a risky proposition. T.Y. Hilton is doubtful for the game and Andre Johnson looked old and slow. An exception is Donte Moncrief, especially if Hilton is ruled out. Luck targeted Moncrief 11 times last week. Frank Gore is completely off my radar. The Jets have that strong front 7 and the Colts have stated that they will limit Gore’s touches to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

50M TARGETS

Donte Moncrief ($6,000 FD; $4,300 DK)

300M TARGETS

Adam Vinatieri ($5,000 FD)

 

[wysija_form id=”1″]

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.