NFL DFS Yahoo Week 9

It is now week 9 of the NFL season. Perhaps some of you won big bucks on Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and are riding cloud 9. Whether you did or not, it is never too late to learn new tricks. In this article series, I explore player prices on Yahoo’s DFS format. Here are players who I believe are great values based upon their prices.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as November rolls along, we may even see some snow. Here are the three teams that play Home and Dome in week 9:

Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans (Monday)

Minnesota Vikings vs  Detroit Lions

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly iwhen making my selections.

 

Quarterback

Tom Brady NE, $34 vs GB

There are two matchups on this Sunday slate that I want to target heavily. They are the Rams-Saints and the Packers-Patriots games. Of those 4 teams, New England is the least likely to run the football. That is mostly due to the lack of healthy bodies in the backfield. Also, their top RB has more receptions than carries, meaning that Tom Brady will probably be throwing on most downs. With a Vegas implied total of 30.75 points, the Patriots have the 2nd highest total of the week. Therefore Brady’s TD upside makes him a great play, especially at as less expensive price than the other QBs in those two games that I am targeting.

Deshaun Watson HOU, $24 @ DEN

Coming off one of his best fantasy performances of the season, it is surprising that Deshaun Watson‘s price is at its lowest point this season. Baked into the price is the fact that Will Fuller is now out for the season and that Keke Coutee might miss another week. Helping Watson’s case is the Texans recent acquisition of Demaryius Thomas. However, one week of practice may not be enough to instill the chemistry between QB and WR needed to properly produce. With all of that being said, $24 for a starting QB is a great price, especially for someone like Watson who adds value as a runner. Yes, he has dealt with injuries. However, having a long week to prepare since Houston’s Thursday Night victory in week 8, gives Watson even more rest time than he is accustomed to.

 

Running Back

Todd Gurley LAR, $37 @ NO

The Rams-Saints game has a Vegas projected over-under line of 60 points, the largest amount in 2018. In a season full of shootouts, this matchup may top them all. That makes Todd Gurley a must play, especially since he experienced a decrease in cost this week. Since Gurley is so active in the passing game, his production is not dependant upon game script. Whether the Rams are in comeback mode, or they running out the clock, Gurley should be heavily involved.

Alvin Kamara NO, $34 vs LAR

Assuming an abundance of points in this game, I want to get as many players in my lineups as possible. Since Mark Ingram‘s return from suspension, Alvin Kamara has not put up the incredible fantasy point totals that were common in the Saints first four games. However, in their three most recent contests, New Orleans has not faced an offense like the Rams. If the Saints are forced to pass the ball even in the 4th quarter, that will certainly help Kamara’s production as a receiver.

Kareem Hunt KC, $33 @ CLE

Last week, I selected Kareem Hunt in this article, in spite of his increase in price. What appeared to me as a great matchup against the Broncos, did not pan out exactly as planned. A total of 17.1 fantasy points is not too shabby, but also not enough to justify spending $37 on a $200 budget. This week, however, Hunt’s price has dropped to $33. Once again this week, the Chiefs matchup is great, especially for Hunt. The Browns have given up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR (points per reception) formats. Cleveland is one of only two teams (the other being the Cardinals) who has allowed 10 rushing TDs to RBs in 2018. With the recent changes to the Browns offensive coaching staff, I am not expecting them to pile on the points. That bodes well for Hunt if he needs to run out the clock.

 

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas NO, $32 vs LAR

Looking at the top of the list for WRs prices on Yahoo, there are several enticing options. Personally, I prefer Michael Thomas to the more expensive players. Considering the 60-point implied total in the Saints-Rams game and the lack of great defensive backs for his upcoming opponent, Thomas has a much better matchup. Davante Adams is only $1 more expensive, but Stephon Gilmore has been playing better against top receivers than Marcus Peters has. Being a Home and Dome game adds to Thomas’ potential to produce.

Stefon Diggs MIN, $25 vs DET

Last week, Stefon Diggs reached his 2018 price peak on Yahoo at $34. This week, however, his cost is at its lowest point of the season, $25. While Darius Slay may present a difficult cornerback matchup for Diggs, there is no guarantee that Slay does not cover Adam Thielen for portions of the game. Even if Diggs does see a healthy dose of Slay, the Vikings 27.25 implied point total signals that they will put up a decent score. Diggs has received double-digit targets in all but 2 games this season. If Minnesota meets their projection, expect Diggs to be heavily involved once again. Also helping his value is the fact that this is a Home and Dome game.

Sammy Watkins KC, $19 vs CLE

Tyreek Hill left last week’s game with a groin injury. He appears fine as he got in full practice sessions on Wednesday. Even so, the Chiefs have the 4th highest Vegas over-under line this week with 29.75 points. With an 8 point spread over the Browns, it is entirely possible that Hill is not needed late in that game. If Kansas City limits his snap count at all, Sammy Watkins will probably see additional targets. Watkins offers DFS players a chance to buy a significant piece of this Chiefs offense at a much lower price than Hill or even Travis Kelce.

Courtland Sutton DEN, $13 vs HOU

The ascent of rookie Courtland Sutton may occur quicker than originally anticipated. With the Broncos trading Demaryius Thomas, there are suddenly additional opportunities for Sutton. Even before the trade, Sutton had between 3 and 6 targets in every game. Production wise, the rookie WR is on the rise, with his two best games coming in the last two weeks. Without an increase in price, Sutton is still a value at $13. He may be on the verge of a major breakout. Standing in his way is Texans pass-rush. If the Broncos offense can survive the barrage, then Sutton should be open for targets against the Houston secondary. Sutton also offers an interesting stack with Texans QB Deshaun Watson.

 

Tight End

Greg Olsen CAR, $23 vs TB

I will leave my usual strategy of paying-down at TE, in order to single out two players with great matchups. The first of those is Greg Olsen, whose Panthers team has their highest implied total of the season. The 30.5 points that Vegas are projecting them to score is also the 3rd largest amount of week 9. Against a Buccaneers defense that has given up the 2nd most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to TEs, I expect Cam Newton to pepper Olson with targets. The veteran TE has gotten into the end zone in 2 straight games, and I would not be surprised if he keeps the streak alive for another week.

David Njoku CLE, $17 vs KC

While Olsen, has performed well recently, David Njoku is coming off of his biggest disappointment of the season. He was completely held off of the score sheet and he did not even receive a target. That was only the 2nd time in 2018 that Njoku was held to under 6 targets. Therefore, I believe week 8 was more of an anomaly than the norm. With the Browns firing both their head coach and their offensive coordinator, the offense needs to reset. For QB Baker Mayfield, that will probably mean additional targets in the quick passing game. Notably, the two receivers who will probably see the biggest workloads are WR Jarvis Landry as well as Njoku. Furthermore, the Chiefs have given up the 5th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to TEs.

 

Flex

James White NE, $26 vs GB

One of my favorite (expensive) stacks of the week is QB Tom Brady with his seemingly favorite target, RB James White. Considering his position, it is surprising that White is leading the Patriots in targets, receiving yards and receiving TDs. Even if Sony Michel returns this week (which is not guaranteed) White’s role is secured in New England. With the 2nd highest implied total of the week (30.75 points), the Patriots are expected to put up a lot of points. Whether it is on the ground or through the air, White will be involved somehow.

Jordan Howard CHI, $20 @ BUF

I have written about Jordan Howard in a previous edition of this series. In that instance, the Bears were playing the Cardinals and I fully expected him to get into the end zone. Sure enough, Howard scored his first TD of 2018 against Arizona. Now in week 9, Chicago has another great matchup on the ground. The Bills have allowed 7 rushing TDs so far this season. Only 3 teams (one of them being the Cardinals) have allowed more rushing TDs than Buffalo. This bodes well for Howard who could see a large workload. If the Bears get up to an early lead, look for them to run the ball in abundance with both Howard and Tarik Cohen.

Aaron Jones GB, $17 @ NE

With the departure of Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones is one step closer to being the unquestioned lead back in Green Bay. Last week against the Rams, Jones saw his biggest workload of the season with 14 total touches. Jamaal Williams, meanwhile, had his least amount of carries in 2018 with 4. He was also held without a catch. Wiliams did manage a score his first TD of the year, but then so did Jones. The latter also outgained his teammate 86 to 9 in total yards. Jones appears to be trending upwards and Yahoo is not reflecting that in his price. $17 is actually Jones’ 2nd lowest amount of 2018. This is a great opportunity to get a borderline workhorse RB at a discounted price. It also helps that the Packers participating in the game with the 2nd highest combined projected total of week 9.

Cordarrelle Patterson NE, $10 vs GB

One more player from the Packers-Patriots game. Cordarrelle Patterson surprisingly started at RB for the Patriots last week. He only managed to gain 10 yards on the ground, but if Sony Michel is out again, Patterson may see extra work in that role. At $10, he is strictly a bargain play that could be used in order to get several top-tier performers into your lineup. The fact that he is a WR getting RB carries certainly helps his value. Theoretically, he could be played in the WR slot in order to flex 3 other RBs. Patterson is a risky player who could pay off big time.

 

Defense

Miami Dolphins $14 vs NYJ

The best play for a fantasy defense regardless of price is the Chicago Bears @ the Buffalo Bills. However, in my opinion, $22 is too expensive to pay for a unit that may potentially have negative, as unlikely as that seems with Nathan Peterman starting. For less expensive options, the Jets-Dolphins game presents two opportunities to play productive fantasy defenses. The Dolphins offense have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to fantasy defenses, while the Jets have allowed the 12th most. There are a couple of reasons why I am going with Miami. For starters, they are playing at home which means that the crowd noise may help them make things difficult for the New York offense. Secondly, the Dolphins defense is $2 less expensive than their divisional counterparts.

Carolina Panthers $13 vs TB

With the announcement that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be starting for the Buccaneers, it makes playing the Panthers defense an interesting proposition. Fitzpatrick has played very well in certain games, but he has also been prone to turning the ball over. There is a risk here because of the offensive weapons that Fitzpatrick will have at his disposal. The important thing will be Carolina’s ability to generate pressure against the Tampa Bay offensive line. They should be able to make things difficult for Fitzpatrick and trick him into a bad decision.

 

Thank you for reading. Hopefully, most of you will be riding on a cloud after week 9. Best of luck in your DFS conquests. If you have any comments or questions about this article, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. If that does not fully satisfy your DFS needs, there is more great content on the Going for 2 website.

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