NFL DFS Yahoo Week 11

It’s week 11, make a wish. For most of you reading, I would assume that wish is to win big playing daily fantasy sports (DFS) this week. I am here to assist with Yahoo’s NFL DFS format by outlining players with good values based on their respective prices.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as November rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in week 10:

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals vs Oakland Raiders

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterback

Drew Brees NO, $35 vs PHI

Since the Chiefs-Rams game is on Monday night, we do not have access to those players in the main slate. Instead of selecting from that game with a combined implied total of 62.5 points, we have to go to the next best option. The 2nd highest Vegas over/under in week 11 is the Eagles-Saints game at 54.5 points. New Orleans is projected to get 30.75 of those points, which is the most for any team on the Sunday slate.  If the Saints do match their implied total, it will likely come from the arm of Drew Brees. Philadelphia has given up the 2nd fewest rushing yards to RBs in 2018. I am not saying that Alvin Kamara is not a good pick, but I expect that most of his production will come from his involvement in the passing game. Adding to Brees’ potential is the fact that this will be a Home and Dome game.

Josh Rosen ARI, $23 vs OAK

In another Home and Dome game, the Cardinals take on the Raiders. Because of that particular opponent, Josh Rosen is a viable play in DFS this week. Oakland has given up the 10th most fantasy points to QBs this season. There is a concern that RB David Johnson could get the majority of his production on the ground, leaving Rosen out in the cold. The risk is inherent in the QB’s price as $23 puts him lower than any other confirmed starter. The only potential QB play that is less expensive is whichever of the Ravens backups (Robert Griffin III or Lamar Jackson) gets the starting nod in week 11. Paying down for Rosen gives you the opportunity to pay up for several top-tier RB.

 

Running Back

Saquon Barkley NYG, $38 vs TB

Now we get to those high-end RBs. For my selections in week 11, I am going right to the top of the Yahoo prices. Saquon Barkley has a glorious matchup against the Buccaneers who have allowed 14 total TDs to RBs in 2018. That is the second highest amount in the league, next to only the Chiefs with 15 (and they have played an extra game as their bye is week 12). Barkley has gotten a healthy workload throughout the season. Only twice in 2018 has he received less than 20 touches in a game. Even then, 16 touches as a season-low demonstrates his consistent usage. It is not just his workload, as Barkley has scored at least 15.6 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR (point per reception) formats. Melvin Gordon is the same price in Yahoo and presents a similar floor to Barkley. While either is a smart selection, Barkley playing Tampa Bay is what puts him over the edge for me.

Christian McCaffrey CAR, $32 @ DET

Arguably a player with an even better matchup than Barkley is Christian McCaffrey. The Lions have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings. On a per game average, they have given up more fantasy points to RBs than the Buccaneers. This bodes well for McCaffrey this week who is in the midst of a hot streak. He is going on three straight games with at least 2 TDs. This comes after McCaffrey scored only 1 TD in the Panthers first 6 games. Even with the TD drought to start this year, he has had double-digit fantasy points in every game of 2018. It would be shocking if McCaffrey did not continue his productive ways by dominating the Detroit defense.

David Johnson ARI, $26 vs OAK

It seems that throughout 2018, the Cardinals have been playing the role of David vs the Goliaths of the NFL. In week 11, they are finally favored and a victory will likely come because of their own personal David. Arizona as a team will probably gain confidence from a decent showing last week against the Chiefs. That includes David Johnson’s most productive fantasy performance of the season. I would expect that momentum to continue against the Raiders. Adding to the pattern of good matchups for elite RBs, Johnson takes on the Raiders. Oakland has allowed the 4th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to RBs, as well the 2nd most rushing yards to the position. Surprisingly, the Cardinals players have not seen a rise in price in advance of this great matchup. That makes a Johnson – Josh Rosen stack quite affordable.

 

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown PIT, $30 vs @ JAX

Contrasting my RB approach, my strategy with WRs is to avoid the most expensive options. Instead, I am looking for players that are either priced down or whose costs have not risen to matchup their production. Antonio Brown would certainly be characterized as the former. His $30 price tag is his least expensive from 2018. The reason for the price down is the matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has not been quite as excellent on defense as they were in 2017 when they were considered to the best unit in the NFL by many observers. Even at the height of their prowess, Brown torched Jacksonville in the two games he played against them last year. He combined for 17 receptions, 289 yards and 2 TDs in those two contests. Brown does not scare me at all in week 11 and is the only elite WR I am willing to pay up for. With an implied total of 26.25 points, the Steelers have to 4th highest on the slate. Their leading target Brown should be front and center for Pittsburgh.

Kenny Golladay DET, $18 vs CAR

I kick off the streak of Dome players with a WR playing at Home. Kenny Golladay‘s target numbers have been up and down all season. Those numbers range from 1 target against the Seahawks to 13 last week against the Bears. With the recent departure of Golden Tate and last week’s injury to Marvin Jones, the Lions may not have a choice but to target Golladay heavily. There is a concern that as the clear-cut top receiver, Golladay might see consistent double-teams in week 11. If the Panthers were not middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to WR, I may be concerned. That being said, his price is so low at $18. Selecting Golladay allows DFS managers the ability to get a team’s #1 receiver while saving enough cap space to get multiple elite RBs.

Calvin Ridley ATL, $18 vs DAL

Calvin Ridley is an example of a high-upside player in a difficult matchup. The Cowboys have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. A major factor for that is that teams have attempted the 2nd fewest passes to WRs when facing Dallas. Therefore, while the matchup may appear on the surface as warranting an avoidance, the numbers actually reflect the lack of opportunities for WRs. The Falcons are one of only 6 teams that have averaged 40 or more pass attempts per game this season. There should be no lack of work for the Atlanta receivers. One added bonus with Ridley is having another Home and Dome player on your roster.

Corey Davis TEN, $16 @ IND

On that note, Corey Davis is an excellent example of a Road and Dome player. For a target hog like Davis, his price on Yahoo sure fluctuates. He has ranged between $11 and $21. Currently, he sits in the middle at $16 which is a great value in my opinion. Davis has a 30.3% target share on the Titans pass attempts. That is second in the league to only DeAndre Hopkins who is 18$ more expensive. Even though the matchup is not great, the Colts offensive proficiency should force Tennesse to pass often, especially towards Davis. I wrote about the fact that Davis’s difficult cornerback matchups are mostly past him and that he should continue to produce as he did against the Patriots.

 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz PHI, $27 @NO

Unlike the WRs, I want to pay up to the top at the TE position. On the surface, Zach Ertz‘s week 11 matchup does not seem all that enticing. The Saints have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to TEs in 0.5 PPR formats. However, New Orleans has not faced a TE of Ertz’s caliber. He operates as the Eagles #1 receiver as he leads the team in targets (100) receiving yards (789) and total TDs (5). The Saints have been very generous to opposing receivers as they are the only NFL team in 2018 to have given up over 2,000 yards to opponent’s WRs. Both the fact that this game is indoors and the proficiency of the New Orleans offense, make for a great situation regarding the receiving options for Philadelphia.

Ricky Seals-Jones ARI, $12 vs OAK

Besides Ertz, there is not a TE that I really want to grab. It is difficult to find great value at the position until you reach Ricky Seals-Jones at $12. For him, it is all about the matchup as the Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TEs in 0.5 PPR settings. Stacking him with Josh Rosen requires a less expensive investment than some QBs’ cost alone. Being another Home and Dome game, I successfully managed to write about 5 receivers in a row playing indoors. While most weeks it is not as much of a priority, the five Dome games in week 11 make of several enticing matchups.

 

Flex RB

Ezekiel Elliott DAL, $25 vs ATL

Normally, these indoor games matter to me less for RBs. However, Ezekiel Elliott is not most RBs. He is an elite talent who plays on a team that features him as their primary weapon. During the 2018 season so far, Elliott has failed to accumulate 20 touches in a game only three times. His involvement in the passing game means that he will enjoy playing football without being affected by wind conditions. The opponent sets up wonderfully for Elliott as the Falcons have allowed the 5th most fantasy points in 0.5 PPR settings to RBs. At only $25, he offers a great pivot for those unable to afford multiple $30+ RBs.

Alex Collins BAL, $18 vs CIN

To be honest, I am unsure of how much work that Alex Collins will receive coming out of the Ravens’ bye week. However, with Joe Flacco listed as doubtful to play in week 11, I would not be surprised if Collins saw over 20 touches for only the second time this season. He would most likely produce incredibly well in that situation as the Bengals have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. There is a concern that newcomer Ty Montgomery may take a decent chunk out of Collins’ workload. While that could make him an interesting option in Yahoo, I prefer paying the extra $7 and getting the player expected to start for Baltimore.

Peyton Barber TB, $14 @ NYG

Even after getting in limited practice reps all week, Ronald Jones has been ruled out for week 11. That means that Peyton Barber will once again lead the Buccaneers backfield. This should be a good spot for him as the Giants have given up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings. That goes to 4th most in the last 4 weeks, one game before run-stuffer Damon Harrison was traded out of New York. The main concern for Barber is that Jacquizz Rodgers may take a significant workload as he did in week 10. However, Rodgers’ fumble last week may entice Tampa Bay to play Barber more than usual. The Buccaneers have an implied Vegas total of 26 points. That means that Barber should get ample opportunities to produce.

Theo Riddick DET, $11 vs CAR

Theo Riddick is arguably the best value for a player this week. With the lack of healthy bodies in the Lions receiving corps, he should be in line for a large target share in week 11. Marvin Jones and Michael Roberts have both been ruled out and the recent Golden Tate trade creates an opening for Riddick to see a monster workload. He had already been tied for 2nd among Lions receivers in targets over the last 2 weeks. With the extra attention that Kenny Golladay will presumably see, Riddick should find space to make to make plays against a Panthers defense that have allowed 4 receiving TDs to RBs. Only four teams have allowed more this season.

 

Defense

Baltimore Ravens $13 vs CIN

For starters, the Ravens defense makes for a great stack with Alex Collins. I expect that the Bengals offense will struggle once again without A.J. Green. Last week, Cincinnati could only muster 14 points against a Saints team that has been involved in several shootouts this season. Imagine what a superior defense in the form of the Ravens could do. On Yahoo, there are some enticing matchups at the high-end of defenses’ costs. Getting a great opportunity such as the Ravens at only $13 is the better play in my opinion.

Los Angeles Chargers $12 vs DEN

Another great matchup at a low price comes courtesy of the Los Angeles Chargers. Joey Bosa may return this week for an enticing matchup against the Broncos offense. Denver QB Case Keenum has only played one game in 2018 without throwing an INT. If the Chargers can get consistent pressure against the Broncos o-line, then they could force Kennum into some mistakes.

Thank you for reading. My wish is that the article was informative and entertaining. If you liked what I had to offer, be sure to check out more great DFS content on Going for 2‘s website. For any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.

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