NFL DFS Yahoo Week 12

At this time of year, we are reminded that we have a lot to be thankful for. Personally, I am thankful for every single person who reads my work. For those of you reading this particular article, I can guess that you will be thankful if you can win big during week 12. Regarding Yahoo’s DFS (daily fantasy sports) format, here are some players at each position who represent value based on their prices.

Note: The Thursday and Monday games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as November rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in week 10:

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears (Thursday Afternoon)

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans (Monday Night)

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons (Thursday Night)

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterback

Andrew Luck IND, $35 vs MIA

Right off the bat, I am hitting you with a Home and Dome matchup. In Indianapolis, Andrew Luck has scored at least 20.46 in every game this season. He has been especially productive of late as Luck has thrown 3 or 4 TDs passes in 7 consecutive weeks. That should continue with a Vegas implied total of 29 points. That is actually the most on the Sunday slate and the 2nd largest implied total of week 12 after the Saints’ 36.25. Even with his most expensive price tag of 2018 on Yahoo, Luck’s consistency makes him an incredibly safe pick.

Cam Newton CAR, $31 vs SEA

Even though he is 2nd among all NFL QBs this season in rushing yards, Cam Newton has only run the football 4 times in the last 2 weeks combined. He has, however, made up for it by throwing for multiple TDs passes in every game of 2018 except the season opener. His price on Yahoo dropped in conjuncture with this tough matchup against the Seahawks. However, I believe that a season-low $31 makes Newton a valuable asset in DFS. Since he has been getting it done with his arm, Newton has a decent floor. The potential of his rushing production, if he does go back to it, gives him a ceiling that can make the difference in DFS.

 

Running Back

Melvin Gordon LAC, $40 vs ARI

For my week 12 RB selections, I am beginning with the most expensive player in Yahoo’s DFS format. Melvin Gordon has a great matchup going up against the Cardinals. They have given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to RBs in 0.5 PPR (point per reception) formats. Among all RBs in the Sunday slate, Gordon has the most fantasy points per game with 23.3. For week 12, he is the one player that should be taken at any price. The matchup and opportunity are prime for Gordon. He could be a player that nets some decent winnings with wonderful work. The Chargers are tied for the 2nd highest Vegas implied total on the Sunday slate with 28.5 points. The should score points and Gordon should produce big time. The only risk is that Gordon plays at 4:00 and he is questionable. Be sure to have an escape plan in case he is inactive.

James Conner PIT, $34 vs @ DEN

James Conner is one of those players who play during the 4:00 slate and can thus act as a replacement for Gordon. Regarding Steelers RBs, we gained some clarity last week when LeVeon Bell did not report to the team. That renders him ineligible to play in 2018, therefore, we now know that Conner will be free to lead Pittsburgh down the stretch. Conner has been a true workhorse this season with double-digit touches in every game and at least 20 touches in six of them. I expect another big workload against the Broncos defense that has given up the 10th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to RB’s in 2018. Denver has been more stout against WR’s and Pittsburgh may choose to attack them on the ground with Conner.

Saquon Barkley NYG, $30 @ PHI

Last week, Saquon Barkley produced 34.2 fantasy points in Yahoo, his best game of the season. That was against the Buccaneers who were, once again, inept at stopping the run. I predicted as much in last week’s article. This time around, Barkley takes on what appears to be a difficult matchup against the Eagles. However, he had his second-best fantasy performance against that very team earlier in the season. The 33.4 fantasy points included a career-high 99 receiving yards. Barkley broke a two-game TD drought last week and he looks to create a TD streak in Philadelphia. At a season-low $30 price tag, Barkley is certainly worthy of being in Yahoo DFS lineups.

 

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham NYG, $35 @ PHI

Now, we continue with another Giants payer. At first glance, I can understand any hesitancy regarding Odell Beckham In his previous meeting with the Eagles, Beckham produced a season-low 44 receiving. What has changed since then? Well, Philadelphia has had several defensive backs sustain injuries since that divisional game. New York also lost that match 34-13, so they may feel the need to get Beckham going in order to have a chance at a victory. Against that depleted secondary, I believe that Beckham warrants strong consideration in week 12.

Stefon Diggs MIN, $25 vs GB

Speaking of injury-riddled defenses, Green Bay has had their fair share, especially in the secondary. Even before the Packers became the walking wounded, Stefon Diggs destroyed their defensive backs. The Vikings WR actually had his best fantasy performance during the week 2 contest in Green Bay with 9 receptions, 128 yards and 2 TDs. While it is always tempting to select Adam Thielen, I prefer to play his teammate who is $12 cheaper, especially since Diggs has a history of producing against the Packers. The Vikings are projected to score 25.5 by Vegas. If they match that and stay ahead of Green Bay, it will likely come from the combination of Diggs and Thielen. Get one of them into your lineups.

Mike Evans TB, $23 vs SF

Apparently, Vegas is buying into to Jameis Winston. Taking on the 49ers, the Buccaneers have the 5th highest Vegas projected total in the entirety of week 12. The 28 implied points are behind only the Colts, the Chargers and the Patriots among teams playing on Sunday. While the Tampa Bay running game may be an appealing target, the 54-point combined over/under probably can’t be reached without some serious areal attack. Mike Evans has the physical ability to be able to produce against the 49ers defensive backs. With three 100-yard games in the last five contests, Evans has a recent track record of success. Only $23 for a WR of his stature is a great price and most likely a reaction to his recent 1 reception 16-yard performance against the Panthers.

Josh Gordon NE, $22 @ NYJ

It seems that most weeks, several Patriots players have a questionable designation in advance of their games. Week 12 appears to be no exception. As one of the only fully healthy options for New England, Josh Gordon is in line to have a great game. The Jets have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. Furthermore, Vegas has given the Patriots an implied total of 28.5, tied with the Chargers for the 2nd highest on the week 12 Sunday slate. If they do put up an abundance of points, it will likely come in large part with the passing game. The Jets have allowed the 5th most receptions to WRs league-wide. Gordon should see a decent target share as he had in the Patriots previous 2 contests where he combined for 22 targets. When his cost is only $22, all Gordon really needs is to take one play to the house to make him worthy of selecting in DFS.

 

Tight End

Cameron Brate TB, $13 vs SF

A few weeks ago, I included Cameron Brate as part of this article. That was in anticipation of O.J. Howard‘s absence for that game. Howard ended up playing which limited Brate’s upside. Here in week 12, that will not be a concern after Howard was placed on injured reserve. Brate is in a position to make the most of this unfortunate situation. He could be a beneficiary of Jameis Winston’s return as the Buccaneers starting QB. 18 of Brate’s 20 career TD receptions have come from the arm of Winston. There are not many TE’s that I consider as valuable players in Yahoo this week. Brate at $13 is certainly one of them.

Nick Vannett SEA, $10 @ CAR

After Brate, I would rather pay down for any other TE. One particular player who could have a potentially productive performance is Nick Vannett. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to TEs in 0.5 PPR formats. This creates a situation where the upside is there for Vannett. Even though the targets have been inconsistent, he has gotten into the end zone in 2 of the last 3 games.

 

Flex RB

Nick Chubb CLE, $27 @ CIN

Continuing the trend of great matchups for RBs, Nick Chubb is in a great spot in week 12. Cincinnati has given up the most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings. Because of this, the Browns may find running the football is the best way to beat the Bengals. Chubb has been busy of late with at least 18 total touches in 4 consecutive games. Coming off of a bye week, he should be fully energized and ready to exploit the biggest Bengals weakness.

Matt Breida SF, $27 @ TB

Apparently, the $27 price tag is where it’s at for RB. In addition to Chubb, both Marlon Mack and James White also carry that cost. Either player warrants selecting, but I am going with yet another $27 RB. Matt Breida has arguably a better matchup than the others as he is going against the Buccaneers. In the game with the highest combined over/under of the week at 54 points, Breida should produce. This is especially true when considering that he is going up against the team that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. The increase in Breida’s price is thus warranted considering the factors that surround this game.

Josh Adams PHI, $13 vs NYG

One of the most valuable players on the entire slate is Josh Adams. It appears that he has become the Eagles lead-back, even if it was not apparent in last week’s box score. In the 48-7 blowout loss to the Saints, Adams got 10 touches, while his teammates in the backfield combined for 5. Adams’ 53 yards and a TD, is great production considering that New Orleans has allowed the fewest rushing yards and 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. In week 12, Philadelphia has the Giants as opponents and they are far more generous to RB production. Only $13 for a starting RB is a great price, especially when they are going against the team allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats.

Flex WR

D.J. Moore Car, $15 vs SEA

D.J. Moore finally had his rookie breakout performance. In week 11, he caught 7 passes, for 157 receiving yards and 1 TD. It was Moore’s first career 100-yard game and second career TD. This came on a season-high 8 targets, one of three Carolina players with that many. Entering week 12, one of those players, Devin Funchess, is questionable to play. If he does miss time, that would solidify Moore’s place as the Panthers top WR. While the matchup is middle of the pack (the Seahawks has given up the 12th most fantasy points to WRs), having a #1 receiver for only $15 is a great value play. Moore makes for a great stack with Cam Newton as the two players have now established some chemistry.

 

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars $14 @ BUF

It has been somewhat of a fall from grace for arguably 2017’s best defensive unit. That has certainly been demonstrated in fantasy football as the Jaguars have only scored double-digit fantasy points once this season. Even at that, it was a 13-point performance against the Giants in week 1. Luckily for Jacksonville, they have the Bills as an opponent in week 12. Normally, the team playing Buffalo has been one of the most expensive (if not the most expensive) fantasy defenses on Yahoo’s DFS format. It appears that Yahoo has bought into the Jaguars as a disappointment and have not raised their price for this matchup. I would exploit that and play the Jaguars over any team that is more expensive than $14.

Indianapolis Colts $13 vs MIA

One team that is cheaper than $14 that I would consider are the Colts. The Dolphins offense is perhaps getting a boost with the return of QB Ryan Tannehill. Even so, a shoulder injury to the throwing arm is concerning. Seeing his first game action since early October, Tannehill may be a little rusty out of the gate. In that case, the Indianapolis defense should be there to take advantage. Their pass-rush alone should be enough to render Tannehill uncomfortable. The Colts have accumulated 17 sacks over the last 4 weeks. Therefore, even without turnovers, the Indianapolis defense should give DFS players a decent floor.

Thank you for reading. The entire Going for 2 family wishes you a happy long weekend. For any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.

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