NFL DFS Yahoo Week 14

The fantasy football playoffs are here! Unfortunately, many of you were left out in the December cold of season-long fantasy football playoffs. Fear not, because there are always daily fantasy sports (DFS). In Yahoo’s NFL DFS format, there is no shortage of opportunities to win with many great players to select. I will go through my favorite values at every position.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as November rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in week 10:

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger PIT, $37 @ OAK

The Steelers enter week 14 with the 3rd highest Vegas implied total at 30.5 points. With the news that James Conner will miss the game against the Raiders, Pittsburgh will likely need to throw the football a lot in order to match that projection. Even without an abundance of passing attempts, Ben Roethlisberger could probably easily score some TDs. Oakland has allowed 28 passing TDs, tied with the Buccaneers for the most allowed in 2018. This is astounding considering that opposing offenses have attempted the fewest passes against the Raiders defense. With all the receiving weapons that the Steelers have, it should not be too difficult for Roethlisberger to score some TDs.

Dak Prescott DAL, 30$ vs PHI

Home and Dome matchups are magnified when the visiting team’s secondary is struggling. With several significant injuries, saying that the Eagles secondary is struggling is a strongly supported statement. While they shut down a Washington offense on Monday Night, that team is a far cry from what the Cowboys are currently offering. Dak Prescott is a far better QB than Colt McCoy or Mark Sanchez and Dallas has surrounded him with better weapons, such as Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott especially has been more involved in the passing game recently with at least 5 receptions in each of the last 4 games. Before that, he had only reached 5 catches twice in 2018. Prescott also offers running production with 5 rushing TDs in the last 7 games.

 

Running Back

Alvin Kamara NO, 37$ @ TB

There is not much to say here except that the Buccaneers defense has been a feeding ground for RBs all season. If we go all the way back to week 1, we see that Alvin Kamara put up 38.6 fantasy points against them. Granted that was without Mark Ingram in the lineup. Still, most of that production came from TDs and his involvement in the passing game, two elements that should continue for Kamara. The Saints have the highest implied total of any team in week 14 with 32.5 points. Everything lines up for Kamara to have a huge week.

Todd Gurley LAR, 36$ @ CHI

There may not be a better time to select Todd Gurley than in week 14. His price dropped to a season-low 36$, usually a situation that I like to target. Now, there is a very clear reason for his slightly depressed price tag. The Bears defense has been one of the best units in the NFL, especially against RBs. However, Saquon Barkley showed us last week that an elite RB can still have success against Chicago. In no measurable way is the Giants offense as good as the Rams. Therefore, Gurley should be in a better position to score TD than Barkley was in week 13. Gurley’s involvement in the passing game is an added boost to his already solid floor. Even on the road and against the Bears defense, the Rams still have a 27.25 implied total, the 5th highest of the week.

LeGarrette Blount DET, $19 @ ARI

RBs have been consistently scoring TDs against the Cardinals in 2018. Even last week, Packers RB Aaron Jones salvaged a disappointing day by getting into the end zone. What worked against Jones was the fact that he only played in 51.3% of the offensive snaps, after playing in at least 73.3% during the previous 3 games. For the Lions, LeGarrette Blount has seen an uptick in playing time since Kerryon Johnson was injured. Blount played in 50% and 41.7% of offensive snaps in each of the last 2 weeks respectively, his 2 highest snap counts of the season. The Cardinals offense is nowhere near as proficient as the Rams (Detroit’s opponent last week). There is a good chance that the Lions take an early lead and Blount is used heavily to run out the game. Not to mention the fact that he is very likely to score at least 1 TD since he is proficient at doing so even against great run defenses. The Bears had not allowed any RB to score 2 rushing TDs against them all season, at least until Blount did just that 2 weeks ago. If Johnson is out once again, Blount at $19, is a bargain price for the potential of elite upside.

 

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones ATL, 34$ @ GB

Admitingly, there is a risk selecting players with questionable designations going into to a given week. I was burned with Rob Gronkowski in week 3. That being said, Julio Jones seems pretty confident that he will be playing in week 14. That would be welcome news by DFS players as Jones is in line for a big day against the Packers injury-riddled secondary. Green Bay has given up the 4th most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. Jone has had success against the Packers in the past. In the 5 games that he has played against them, Jones has averaged 5.8 receptions per game and 118.4 receiving yards per game. He has also scored 3 TDs in those 5 games.

Keenan Allen LAC, 28$ vs CIN

The late season-surge of Keenan Allen is once again something special. In his last 7 games of 2017, Allen had 5 games of 100+ yards and 5 TDs. This after having only 2 100+ yard games and 1 TD in the first 9 games of that season. Now in 2018, it seems that history is repeating itself.  Allen only had 1 TD in the first 8 games of the season. Since then, he has found the end zone in 4 straight contests. In another game where RB Melvin Gordon is expected to miss, I expect that the Chargers will lean heavily on the arm of Philip Rivers. The Chargers QB loves to target Allen and has done so 113 times this season. The second most targeted Chargers player is Gordon with 60, followed by another RB, Austin Ekeler, with 47. The Chargers have the 2nd highest implied total of week 14 with 31 points. As the top option on the Chargers, Allen has the ability to be among the top fantasy scorers of the week, yet he has a has a cheaper price tag than the other elite WRs.

Chris Godwin TB, 23$ vs NO

So far in 2018, there has been no better matchup for WRs than the Saints. The Buccaneers know that first-hand, thanks to a week 1 victory in New Orleans. In that game, Chris Godwin found the end zone and outgained Adam Humphries 41 to 27, even though Humphries had more targets. Now, with Humphries as one of his only main competitors for targets, Godwin should be able to significantly surpass his week 1 output. O.J. Howard is on injured reserve and DeSean Jackson seems unlikely to play this week. Godwin is probably either second or third on the Buccaneers pecking order, after top target Mike Evans. Even so, Godwin more than doubled Evans’ yardage total last week and scored a TD while Evans did not. Even with a season-high 23$ price tag, Godwin is still 9$ less expensive than Evans. That value makes him worthy of selecting in Yahoo’s DFS format.

Michael Gallup DAL, 14$ vs PHI

Amari Cooper has immediately established himself as the Cowboys top receiver. However, during that same time span, rookie WR Michael Gallup has been getting more and more playing time. While Cole Beasley began 2018 as Dallas’ top target, Gallup has out-snapped him in 6 of the last 7 games. Gallup played in at least 73.2% of snaps in those same games. That being said, even with the extra playing time, Gallup hadn’t caught more than 3 passes, at least until last week. On 7 targets, he managed 5 receptions for 76 yards. At home, and in a dome, Gallup should be able to exploit the Eagles secondary. He also makes for a great stack with Dak Prescott.

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce KC, 28$ vs BAL

I made Travis Kelce one of my TE selections last week and it turned out to be even better than I expected. This week, he faces a much tougher matchup in the form of the Ravens. This explains why Kelce is not the most expensive TE after a 12 reception, 168-yard and 2 TD performance. While the Baltimore defense is stout, the one area that they are most vulnerable is against TEs. They have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to the position in 0.5 PPR settings. Furthermore, only 7 teams have given up more TDs to TEs than the Ravens. Last week, Baltimore proved that they could hold down an elite WR by limiting Julio Jones to 2 catches for 18 yards on 8 targets. A similar fate could befall Tyreek Hill in week 14. Kelce meanwhile, should be in line to demonstrate once more that he is the best TE in fantasy football. Even with the difficult matchup, the Chiefs still have the 4th highest implied total of week 14, with 28.5 points.

Vance McDonald PIT, 15$ @ OAK

Kelce’s monster performance last week set his season-high yard mark. This came against the Raiders who have allowed the most fantasy points to TEs in 0.5 PPR formats. That puts Vance McDonald in a great spot this week. He has had at least 3 receptions in all but one of the games that he has played this season. The unfortunate side of McDonald is that he is TD dependant, but so are most TEs. Oakland has been a disaster as a team, but they have been pretty decent at limiting production from teams’ top receivers. We do not need to look further back than last week and see that Tyreek Hill only scored 5.5 0.5 PPR fantasy points against the Raiders. While it is possible that Antonio Brown can overcome that, I prefer to pay way down and get McDonald. Even JuJu Smith-Schuster is double the price tag that McDonald has. If Jaylen Samuels had TE eligibility in DFS, I would have chosen him. Alas, McDonald is my favorite player to stack with Big Ben.

 

Flex RB

Justin Jackson LAC, $16 vs CIN

Another player replacing an injured starter, Justin Jackson has been running the football well. Over the last 2 weeks, he only received 7 and 8 rushing attempts respectively. Jackson managed to produce 120 yards and 1 TD over those 2 games. With Melvin Gordon likely to miss at least one more week, it would be surprising if the Chargers trusted Austin Ekler with double-digit carries. Ekeler is great in the passing game, but he has averaged 2.5 yards per carry in the two games where he got the majority of the rushing attempts. I expect Jackson to be more involved right from the start in week 14. Luckily for him, the Chargers have a great matchup on tap. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats in 2018. With the uncertainty surrounding Gordon’s return, this may the only week that Jackson is playable. Might as well use him in the best possible matchup.

Stevan Ridley PIT, $10 @ OAK

The reports are that Jaylen Samuels will get the start at RB for the Steelers. The risk is that Stevan Ridley is also slated to see time in an apparent even split, at least to begin this week 14 contest. Ridley has had games where he has been a lead back and performed well. Samuels, on the other hand, is a rookie who has 12 NFL regular season rushing attempts. The reward is a matchup against the Raiders where the Steelers are favored by 10 and have a 30.5 point implied total. Oakland has allowed the most rushing yards, but also the 6th fewest receiving yards to RBs in 2018. This matchup seems to favor someone like Ridley who saw 26 carries for the Steelers in 2 games to end 2017. A minimum price, give a minimum risk, especially if the reward is being able to afford both Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara.

Flex WR

Dante Pettis SF, $13 vs DEN

My favorite strategy this week is to start multiple elite RBs and pay down at WR. I have already mentioned Michael Gallup at WR but there are even less expensive options at the position that are viable. We start with Dante Pettis of the 49ers who broke out big time last week. On 7 targets, he caught 5 passes for 129 yards and 2 TDs. It was Pettis’ third straight game with at least 6 targets. The presumed return of Marquise Goodwin should open up even more space for Pettis as San Francisco welcomes the Broncos, a team that just lost the best defensive back Chris Harris. Adjusting to his season-ending injury could prove problematic for Denver and Pettis appears capable of taking advantage of the situation.

DaeSean Hamilton DEN, $10 @ SF

Next, we look to the other side of this matchup. With the unfortunate news that Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles, there are suddenly a plethora of targets available on the Broncos. While Courtland Sutton is the obvious candidate to be the #1 option in Denver, DaeSean Hamilton will most likely man the slot. The type of routes that he will likely run means that Hamilton will probably be targeted often. The Broncos receivers also get a great matchup in week 14, going up against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points in WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. At the $10 minimum price, there is no other player that matches the upside that Hamilton provides.

 

Defense

Los Angeles Chargers, 14$ vs CIN

What started as a strong season for Cincinnati has quickly turned into a nightmare. WR A.J. Green suffered a foot injury that caused him to miss some time. Not enough time apparently as he worsened his injury upon returning and is now done for the season. QB Andy Dalton is also done for 2018, therefore the Bengals have turned to Jeff Driskel to lead the offense. While he offers a rushing ability that Dalton could not, it is nonetheless a downgrade in the passing department. With Joey Bosa back in the Chargers lineup and teaming up with Melvin Ingram to provide a powerful pass-rush, the Cincinnati offensive line may be overmatched. Add to the fact that Casey Hayward could potentially take Tyler Boyd out of the game plan, and I find it hard to believe that the Bengals will put up an abundance of points.

Detroit Lions, 14$ @ ARI

Apparently, week 14 means that the appropriate price to pay for defenses is 14$. I believe that the Chargers are one of the best defenses regardless of price. That is why I would not want to pay above them. A defense at the same cost, however, sound appealing, especially when they are playing the Cardinals. While I usually try to select home teams, the Cardinals have demonstrated that they do not really have a home field advantage. We can look back to the Broncos game, where there were seemingly more Denver fans than Arizona fans in the Cardinals home game. Other then that, the Lions have been playing better on defense since Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay have returned from injury as well as the trade where they received Damon Harrison. Against the Cardinals depleted offensive line, Detroit should be able to apply ample pressure needed to force mistakes out of Josh Rosen.

 

Thank you for reading. For comments or question about this article, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. Be sure to check out Going for 2 daily for all sorts of DFS advice.

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