10 Things We Learned In 2018 (#FantasyFootball)

What a year for fantasy football. There was a fair share of monster performances, stunning surprises and major disappointments. While certain things are completely out of our control as fantasy football players, (injuries being chief among them) there are still general takeaways that we can gather. This will help us all in preparation for 2019. Here are 10 things that we learned in 2018.

Golden Gurley

In 2017, Todd Gurley was the RB1 overall by gaining over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scoring 19 total TDs. If not for a late-season injury that kept him out of the of the final 2 games of 2018, Gurley would probably have repeated as the RB1. Instead, in PPR scoring anyway, he finished third behind Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Still, it was a great season for Gulrey as he scored the most TDs (21) of his career. Going into 2019, there should be no doubt that Gurley will be among the best fantasy RBs once again. The Rams offense led by Sean McVay should continue to put Gurley in favorable situations. Teams can rarely stack the box against a loaded Rams receiving corps and the team is constantly putting Gurley in goal-line situations. I would have no problem taking him first overall next year.

RB RECords

In 2018, there were two RB reception records that were broken. First, Christian McCaffrey broke the single-season record for catches at the position with 107. The previous record was Matt Forte’s 102 reception performance in 2014. That was not the only record that fell this season. Saquon Barkley set a new rookie RB mark for catches with 91. That places him in the top 10 of all-time single-season RB receptions.

Neither of those occurrences were truly shocking as we knew entering the season that both Barkley and McCaffrey were excellent pass catchers. According to ADP data, both RB were taken in the middle of the second round (12-team format) at the very latest. However, there was one other RB to crack the all-time top 15 in single-season catches for the position. With 87 receptions, James White was not drafted anywhere near Barkley or McCaffrey. White had an August ADP of 9.01 in PPR settings. While he was certainly on the radar, we did not expect him to have that dominant of a season.

With RB receptions seemingly on the rise, players with pass-catching prowess will continue to be highly sought after in fantasy football. Third-down RB is no longer a pejorative term, but instead, something that will be desired as PPR starts to become the norm in fantasy football.

Early or LaTE

All offseason, one narrative that was common when speaking about Tight Ends was the need to get one early. The top three were very clear with Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski (if healthy) and Travis Kelce. The next group of six were all being taken, on average, in the first seven rounds: Trey Burton, Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph and Delanie Walker. Of those nine TEs, less than half (4) finished in the top 10 of TE scoring in PPR formats. After Kelce and Ertz, the top five were rounded out by George Kittle, Eric Ebron and Jared Cook. Of those three, only Kittle, with an APD (average draft position) of 11.11 (in 12-team settings) was selected in the top 200.

What can we take from all of this? Well, unless you drafted Ertz or Kelce, you were most likely disappointed in your early TE investments. Personally, I was ecstatic in leagues where I drafted Cook late or picked him up off of the waiver wire, much more than in leagues where I selected someone like Rudolph. For 2019, no matter how much TEs are touted, my strategy is clear: Either pay up for Ertz or Kelce, or wait until the double-digit rounds to select at the position.

As Luck Would Have It

One of the biggest question marks during the offseason was the health of Andrew Luck. Even after missing the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury, Luck was still not throwing regulation-sized NFL footballs. Even with the late start to a full offseason program, Luck had a great 2018 season. He demonstrated to us the type of upside that allowed him to finish QB2 in 2014 and QB4 in 2016. Luck was certainly not limited this season as he went on to throw 639 pass attempts, the most of his career.

Another AFC South QB, also returned after an injury absence. As a rookie, Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in 2017, after tearing up opposing defenses. Fortunetly for him, and Texans fans, Watson retunred to what appeared to be full health. He played in all 16 regular season games and more importantly for us, was still running the football. On top of the passing TD upside, which he demonstrated as a rookie, Watson’s fantasy production is aided by his work on the ground. On his 99 carries in 2018, Watson produced 551 yards and 5 TDs. Just as Luck has, Watson appears to be back to peak condition.

Master Chiefs

Similarly to the Colts and Texans, the Chiefs had some uncertainty surrounding the QB position entering 2018. Unlike Indianapolis however, this was not due to an injury, but simply inexperience. Patrick Mahomes started the 2017 regular-season finale when most of the starters were resting. Apparently, between his college tape, practice time and that week 17 contest, Andy Reid had seen enough. Before the draft, Kansas City traded Alex Smith, and thus, the Mahomes era began. And what a way for it to start. The Chiefs’ signal caller threw for over 5,00 yards and 50 TD while also running in 2 more scores and additional 272 yards.

What helped Mahomes immensely were the excellent skill position players that he had. Even so, Mahomes certainly helped elevate Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to new heights. Both receivers set career-best marks for receptions, yards and TDs. With most of this offense expected to be intact next season, this group may only be getting started. In something like a 16-team league, it is entirely possible to see Hill, Kelce and Mahomes selected in the 1st round of 2019 drafts. However, such an amazing season will be incredibly difficult to duplicate, especially for Mahomes. We saw after Deshaun Watson’s incredible rookie season, his TD rate dropped from 9.3% to 5.1 in 2018. Mahomes scored a TD on 8.6% of his pass attempts, something that seems unsustainable. If we learned anything from Watson, we should expect some type of regression for Mahomes. Still, there is a possibility that the Chiefs offense is once again one of the best in the league. That would make all of Kansas City main players valuable fantasy commodities. If we can figure out who, if anybody, will be the workhorse RB, then that player will also be worthy of an early selection.

All the Suspense

2018 began with a lot of hope for both Martavis Bryant and Josh Gordon. Bryant was traded to the Raiders with the chance that he could become the team’s #2 receiver. That did not pan out. He had some great moments, such as the 91-yard performance against the Chargers, but even that came on only 3 receptions. He also failed to reach the end zone in 2018.

Gordon meanwhile was reinstated late in 2017 giving him the advantage of having the entire offseason to work on rapport with his QBs. Although any report did not last as he was traded to the Patriots early in the season. In New England, he found some success as he scored 3 TD and had 2 100+ yard games.

However, any good moments were overshadowed by yet another suspension, a fate that befell Bryant as well. There were warning signs, especially for Bryant as suspension rumors swirled as early as training camp. For both receivers, there is a chance that their NFL careers are over. In draft season, we may have thought that their talents were worth the risk of potential suspensions, it turned out not to be the case. Next time a player with a lengthy suspension history is there to be drafted, it may be best to go with another player.

… To Be Continued

There were some high profile veteran QBs that ended up on new teams in 2018. For them, that meant learning a new offensive system and trying to establish chemistry with different receivers. The results vary. For starters, Kirk Cousins signed a monster deal with the Vikings. He actually adjusted pretty well to the fact that his offensive line was not as good as he had been accustomed to in Washington. Cousins set new career-highs in completion percentage (70.1%), although that may have a lot to do with his career low yards per attempt average (7.09). Because the offensive line was not as good, Cousins needed to get the ball out quickly on shorter passes. The truth was Cousins is that he was pretty inconsistent from a fantasy perspective in 2018. He had a monster performance in week 2, where he threw for 425 yards and 4 TD, but he also had 5 games where he threw less than 250 yards with only 1 TD. As the season went on, the Vikings began to run the ball more. There were 5 games this season where Cousins had 33 pass attempts or less, and 4 of them came in the final month of the season. This does not bode well entering 2019, especially since Kevin Stefanski, who took over as offensive coordinator late in 2018, will be returning to that role.

The other high profile free agent QB was Case Keenum signing with the Broncos. 2018 was the first time Keenum was given the chance to be “the guy” for his team and was expected to be a full year starter from day 1. Keenum saw unprecedented (for him anyway) passing volume by setting career-highs in attempts, completions and, unfortunately, interceptions. Although a downgrade from his 2017 receiving corps prevented him from topping 18 TD passes in 2018. On 586 pass attempts, that gave Kennum a brutal 3.1% TD rate. Entering 2019, he will have the advantage of having some chemistry with his receivers. However, he may have to learn a new offensive system, which can be difficult. Just ask Matt Ryan.

Ryan finished as the QB2 in 2018, his second season in the Steve Sarkisian system. That was a great finish for him, considering that he was the QB15 in Sarkisian’s first season as the Falcons OC. Unfortunately for Ryan, he will have to start all over again as Sarkisian was fired and replaced by Dirk Koetter. For Cousins, Keenum and Ryan, having to learn new offensive systems may hold back their production somewhat. Ryan, especially, after another QB2 finish, will probably be over-drafted in 2019. Because of the lack of continuity, these are three QB situations that I would like to avoid next season in fantasy.

Draft Capital

Both Royce Freeman and Rashaad Penny were taken in the first 3 rounds (Penny in the 1st) of the 2018 NFL draft. Since the Broncos and the Seahawks put high draft capital into the RB position, many expected that Freeman and Penny would be used heavily. But by season’s end, neither had established themselves as the lead backs on their respective teams. In fact, they were bested by backs who were not baring the same type of investment by their NFL teams. Chris Carson, a 7th round pick in 2017, paced Seattle with 1,151 rushing yards on 247 carries. In Denver, it was even more shocking as rookie undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay had a 1,000-yard season on 198 rushing attempts.

All of this to say that draft capital does not really matter, at least when it comes to fantasy football. We should not just assume that a rookie will come in and become a workhorse even if they are a 1st round pick.

Backup Plan

In 2017, we saw a rash of injuries to starting QBs. While it was not nearly as bad in 2018, there were still some high profile signal callers who missed time. For starters, Carson Wentz missed the first two weeks of the season recovering from his ACL tear that occurred late in 2017. Because of that, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles had the reigns to the Eagles offense at the beginning of 2018. Foles’ fantasy performances in those first two games were not great as he combined for only 1 TD and less than 500 passing yards. However, he was called upon once more, late in 2018 after Wentz suffered a back injury that ended his season. Foles as much better down this stretch, including a 31.94 fantasy point performance against the Texans in week 16. If you played him that week, Foles gave you a great chance to win your fantasy championship game. He was not the only backup QB who contributed to fantasy football success.

In a strange occurrence, Ryan Fitzpatrick was among the best QBs in the first month of the season. While Jameis Winston was serving a suspension to begin 2018, Fitzpatrick was balling out all over the field. In his first 3 weeks, Fitzpatrick combined for 11 passing TDs. However, in week 4, he had a horrible first half. So much so that Winston replaced him to start the 2nd half. The Buccaneers went back and forth between the two QBs until, eventually, Winston started the final six games of 2018.

The future of the Ravens franchise began in 2018. Lamar Jackson took over after their bye week because of an injury to Joe Flacco. Even when Flacco returned, Baltimore remained with Jackson whose rushing ability offered fantasy managers a solid floor. During his starts, Jackson never scored less than 15.9 fantasy points, although he never exploded to win any weeks.

Other QB injuries include Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton and Jimmy Garoppolo. Actually, looking at that list, I guess 2018 was pretty bad of QB health after all. What we can take away from all of this is that fantasy managers have to pay attention to the backup quarterbacks. In Superflex leagues, it may not be a horrible thing to use a late round pick and draft one (or both) of your starter’s backup.

Be Free

There were a lot of great players that got fantasy managers to championship games. However, as with every year, there were also some waiver-wire pickups that helped win people some league titles. Of course, there were the usual suspects such as Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley in the top 10 RB scoring for week 16. However, there were also some players who were fantasy football free-agents for most of the season. That includes C.J. Anderson, Elijah McGuire, Jacquizz Rodgers, Darren Sproles and Damien Williams. Personally, I won a league with McGuire and Williams starting for me in week 16.

These type of players establishing themselves late is something that often occurs. It seems like in 2018, it was a lot of the top RBs that were getting injured. Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette were all first-round draft picks in August and all missed time during the season. There were also a couple of highly-touted RBs that were not playing for different reasons: LeVeon Bell held out the entire season while Kareem Hunt was cut after a video showing him attacking someone was released. Picking up James Conner early in the season, or Damien Williams late would have certainly helped fantasy managers win games throughout the year.

What can we take from all of this? Well, the key appears to be having depth at RB. Don’t be afraid to draft only one QB and one TE while loading up at RB late. The people who went WR-heavy approach early in drafts may have been rewarded. Imagine going Antonio Brown and Davante Adams in the first 2 rounds and then drafting a bunch of RBs. Doing that probably would have won you a title.

Thank you for reading. We all made many mistakes in 2018, (I know I certainly did), and we need to learn from those mistakes. It is best to keep note of the things we learned so that we are well prepared for the 2019 season. Be sure to continue following all of the content on Going for 2, throughout the offseason. You may find all sorts of key information that will help you nail your 2019 drafts.

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