Yahoo DFS Week 1

Football is back! And with comes regular-season daily fantasy sports contests. One platform that is beginning to grow in popularity is Yahoo DFS.

Like last year, I will give my weekly predictions on the best plays. The slate that I will concentrate on is the Sunday main slate. Unlike some other websites, the Sunday Night Football game is part of the main slate, which adds extra players to contests. Excluded, however from this series are the Thursday and Monday night games.

For those who are new to Yahoo, we will begin with the lineup requirements and the scoring settings.

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in week 1:

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Preferred Position Price Points

One of the keys to success in DFS in finding out where the best price points are at all positions.

QB – $26

I do not see the need the pay up for a QB this week because there are several excellent options at the position at $26. Two players, in particular, catch my eye. Either one offers a $13 discount on the highest-priced player.

Lamar Jackson BAL @ MIA

Entering week 1, we obviously do not have any raw data from this season. We can, however, use predictive stats just as projected Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA measures team success by examining all players. The Dolphins rank last in the entire league for projected DVOA entering the 2019 season. This is good news for the Ravens who travel to Miami in Week 1. The beauty with Lamar Jackson is that he can get points either threw the air or on the ground and the Dolphins do not have an answer either way.

Dak Prescott DAL vs NYG

The Cowboys enter Week 1 with the 4th highest implied points total on the Sunday slate. Even with an RB returning, I still expect Dak Prescott to produce with his arm. As a bonus, Prescott can always gain yards on the ground and potentially score. Plus this is a home and dome game so conditions should be prime for passing plays.

RB – $23

While it can be tempting to pay up for the top tier of running backs, there are some potentially great options at the $23 range.

Chris Carson SEA vs CIN

Much as I mentioned with Lamar Jackson against the dolphins, I am looking to the projected DVOA ranks. the Bengals come in next to last with only Miami below them. This bodes well for a Seahawks team that wants to run the football, especially with Chris Carson. Seattle should be in a good game script to give Carson plenty of touches as this game has the 2nd highest spread of the week.

Nick Chubb CLE vs TEN

A new era begins in Cleveland, one where a Browns RB can be coveted for his touchdown upside. Nick Chubb offers everything you want for an RB play. His team is favored (by 5.5 points), he should have the monopoly of goal-line carries and he contributes in the passing game in case things go South for Cleveland.

WR – $22

A few of the top overall WRs are not in this slate. Most of the other members of that top tier have difficult matchups in week 1. That makes it a little easier to pay down at the position, at an exact price of $22.

Keenan Allen LAC vs IND

The Chargers are in the top 10 of implied point totals this week. While the Colts are on the lower end in Week 1, they are still a good team. It is not as if Los Angeles will be able to simply run the ball against a decent defense. They will need to pass the ball. Expect top target, Keenan Allen, to have a busy day and be productive, especially out of the slot. It’s a bargain to get a player who could potentially be near the top of the league in target share.

Tyler Lockett SEA vs CIN

I already reference that the Seahawks are heavy favorites. What I did not mention was that they also have the 7th highest implied total. As we saw last season, Tyler Lockett does not need an abundance of targets to be productive. With all of the other injuries to the Seattle receiving corps, Lockett will have to see an increase on his usual target share. Even if, the Bengals attempt to blanket him, their defense is very effective and will probably not be able to stop him.

TE – $27

With other positions, the preferred price points were somewhat of values plays. Not at TE where I selected the two most expensive players at the position. They are their team’s top targets and also have good matchups for their positions.

Travis Kelce KC @ JAX

The appeal of Travis Kelce is certainly not the Jaguars defensive DVOA. In fact, that would lead us to avoid Kelce. Looking deeper into Jacksonville’s roster, they have an excellent defensive line and amazing cornerbacks on both sides. Where they are weakest is at linebacker, specifically players capable of covering Kelce. TE is the perfect place to target the matchup. For week 1, the Chiefs are tied for the highest implied total and the game itself has the highest over/under.

George Kittle SF @ TB

The 2nd highest over/under is the 49ers-Buccaneers game. Much like the Chiefs and the Jaguars contest, this matchup features a top tier TE. However, unlike Jacksonville, Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the projected DVOA defensive rankings. 30th to be exact. Last season, George Kittle had very productive outings against weaker defenses. 2019 could start in a similar fashion.

Best Bet Bargains

RB – James White NE vs PIT $15

Not only does New England have the 3rd highest implied total on the slate, but they are facing an opponent that has the pieces to put up points. Certainly, there is some uncertainty with how the Steelers will perform minus an excellent receiving weapon. However, that uncertainty is also surrounding the Patriots, especially with regards to their receiving corps. While there is talent there, perhaps a familiar target in James White will be favored.

WR – Randall Cobb DAL vs NYG $13

While the Giants defense as a whole is not the most impressive defensive unit, they do have one of the best cover corners in the league. That leads me to believe that the best place for Dak Prescott to target is inside the slot, an area that he is known to target frequently. Randall Cobb possesses the ability to find the open zone, something that Prescott as he is more of a “see it” thrower. The Prescott-Cobb stack may be one of the best on the slate.

TE – Mark Andrews BAL @ MIA $14

The other stack that I am targeting involves another $26 QB. While Lamar Jackson’s passing number last year left a lot to be desired, the one area of the field that he was throwing well was over the middle. This sets up well for the Ravens tight ends especially. Mark Andrews has a chance to be Baltimore’s top target in 2019. This may be a good week to get on before the hype, and the price goes up.

Dominant Defenses

Philadelphia Eagles vs WAS $19

The Eagles have the advantage in the game with the largest over/under of the week. The line against Washington is set at 10 points. While this is partially due to Philadelphia having the highest implied total of the slate, but also due to Washington’s offensive struggles. The offensive line does not look very good, and the Eagles defensive line should cause havoc for the offense. Washington is ranked 30th in projected DVOA for the season which is the reason that the Eagles defense is the highest priced.

Seattle Seahawks vs CIN $16

In week 1, the Bengals have an implied total of 17.5 points. That is the same as Washington. If you want to save money but still face an offense that is expected to struggle, the Seahawks are a great option.

Super Stacks

Selecting a few players from the same game can be a great way to gain advantages over other DFS players. While the conventional stack is to take a QB and one of his pass-catchers, there are other options, including going with both sides of a matchup. These are stack opportunities with players who have not yet been mentioned.

Rams @ Panthers

Christian McCaffrey – RB – CAR $37

Brandin Cooks / Robert Woods – WR – LAR $25/$24

The Rams-Panthers game has the 3rd highest over/under at 50 points. Even with talented defenses, this is expected to be somewhat of a shootout. Getting the top receiving options on either side would be my priority.

Lions @ Cardinals

Matthew Stafford – QB – DET $26

David Johnson – RB – ARI $23

Kenny Golladay / Marvin Jones – WR – DET $15/$14

This stack has 2 players who are in the prefered price points. Stafford is at $26 while Johnson is going for $23.

The main appeal of this stack is getting either of the Lions top 2 WRs in a lineup. Combined, they are less expensive than the highest-priced WR is alone. The Cardinals defense has great pieces, but they will be without their top cornerback as he serves a suspension. This game will also be played in a stadium with a retractable roof. So even if there is whether the passing conditions should be pristine. Saving enough on the Lions WRs, it is quite possible to get the Arizona RB who may double as the team’s top receiver.

Other Stacks: Cowboys, Ravens, Seahawks

 

Thank you for reading. Be sure to check out all of the DFS content on Going for 2.

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