10 Things to Know About Week 4 (#FantasyFootball)
1. Time to re-calibrate some expectations.
We’re roughly through a third of the fantasy regular season, and that’s enough of a sample size to rethink some of our pre-season ideologies. Some things held are as expected; the Vikings are a run-first team, the entire passing game has taken a step back. Dalvin Cook looks to be leaping into the top tier of RBs. Patrick Mahomes is still superhuman and potentially even better than last year. Some things aren’t what we thought. The Seahawks are a much more balanced offense then was expected. Lamar Jackson has taken a giant leap and is locked in as a high-end QB1. Damien Williams isn’t the stud some thought he was. Some will still take into consideration the cost of a player based on draft capital and overrate or underrate players. Take advantage of those who refuse to believe what their eyes are seeing, and shoot offers out for players you believe in. Things will continue to change as the season goes on, but its time to start believing this season’s production and let what we knew about last season stay in the past. Don’t hold on to last year and cost yourself this year.
2. Avoid the Packers running-game on TNF.
A few things are working against Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams going into a Thursday night tilt with the Philadelphia Eagles. First off, Coach Matt LaFleur is insistent on a full blown split backfield. Through three games Williams has 48.4 percent of offensive snaps compared to 53.1 percent for Jones, a virtual tie. Coming to town is the vaunted rush defense of the Eagles, who have only given up one TD on the ground and rank second overall in yards given up per game (57). Both Jones and Williams have been nursing neck and shoulder issues respectively, something that is amplified by playing on Thursday Night. Games are traditionally sloppy and low scoring, and players have complained it’s due to the fact their bodies simply don’t have enough time to recover from playing a game just a few days before. If you can find better options, avoid them both.
3. Austin Ekeler still has value with Melvin Gordon back.
Those who drafted Melvin Gordon worried he would sit out the entire season can finally breathe, as Gordon informed the Chargers he was ending his holdout and returning to the team. The boost of value both Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson got is about to be over, although it affects Jackson much more. Ekeler was still productive last year when only getting secondary touches to Gordon, and he proved in the time Gordon has been out he can produce when given more work. I fully believe Gordon will return to a workhorse role, but with a history of knee injuries, Ekeler isn’t someone you should drop or sell for pennies on the dime. It’s also entirely possible that Ekeler’s performance has earned him some extra snaps. If Gordon continues to press the issue in the off-season and the Chargers move on, Ekeler could become a nice piece in keeper leagues. Similar to what Ezekiel Elliott dealt with in being eased back into action, Gordon won’t simply be handed his close to 20 touches right off the bat. He won’t be playing this week, so Ekeler is easily an easy start against the Dolphins, and Jackson a decent flex play. Once Gordon is up to speed (which may take a few weeks), Ekeler becomes more of a RB2/Flex play in PPR leagues, and Jackson can be dropped.
4. Preston Williams offers sneaky value.
It’s time to go dumpster diving! Although the Miami Dolphins are historically bad this season, there is still fantasy production to be had. Garbage time stats still count in fantasy, and the Dolphins will be playing from behind in potentially every game this season. Preston Williams leads the Dolphins in targets (23), receptions (11), receiving yards (155), and receiving TDs (the large sum of 1). A lot of that has to do with Josh Rosen, who has targeted Williams on 26 percent of his attempts. He should be the starter for the reason of the season so that connection is likely to continue to help Williams value. There isn’t a ton of upside, but especially in PPR leagues, Williams is free and the lead option in his passing game. As bye weeks are starting up, Williams can be an intriguing play with a surprisingly high floor who will have some solid-yet-unspectacular games. In weeks he catches a TD (which will more than likely be few and far between), he’s an astronomical value. He won’t win you a week, but he should produce consistent WR3/Flex play numbers for the foreseeable future.
5. Talk of Russell Wilson‘s death was highly exaggerated.
After a season where he had his lowest pass attempts and yardage since 2013 and talk this off-season of continuing to focus on running the ball, many were worried that Russell Wilson would take a step back this season. Week 1 looked like a continuation of last year, with Wilson only attempting 20 passes and throwing for 195 yards. Weeks 2 and 3 were a complete 180, with Wilson attempting 35 passes in Week 3 and a whopping 50 in Week 5, combining for 706 yards and 2 TDs through the air and 73 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. With Chris Carson having a bout of fumble-itis and Rashaad Penny hurt, the ground game for the Seahawks hasn’t been able to take over games like it did last season. The defense also ranks bottom-10 in total points given up (60), so they can’t slow things down and grind games out like in the past. Seattle also drafted DK Metcalf to ease the pain of losing Doug Baldwin to retirement and give Wilson another weapon in the passing game. Those who let Wilson slip in drafts are regretting it now, and with the swiss-cheese defense of the Arizona Cardinals on tap, the Seahawks will continue the fireworks through the air this week.
6. Fire up Will Dissly!
The Arizona Cardinals are terrible against the TE position, the stats don’t lie. Through three weeks, the stat line’s for opposing #1 TE’s are as follows:
Week 1: T.J. Hockenson – 6 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD – 25 points
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Week 2: Mark Andrews – 8 receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD – 25 points
Week 3: Greg Olsen – 6 receptions, 75 yards, 2 TDs – 25 points
The Cardinals offense ranks third in scrimmage plays per game (209) but 21st in first downs (19). That means the pace of play is great, but the offense isn’t producing. Not only does the opposing offense get plenty of snaps, but the Cardinal’s defense is on the field getting worn down. The Seahawks also traded Nick Vannett to the Steelers, leaving Dissly as the only TE in town. Dissly is a TE1 play this week with upside. Start him with confidence outside of shallow leagues.
7. The Giants passing game is no longer a fantasy wasteland.
With Eli Manning no longer under center, the Giants passing offense came to life. Daniel Jones got a lot of flack this off-season but produced in his first start with 336 yards, 2 passing TDs, 28 rushing yards, and 2 rushing TDs (including the game-winning TD). Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram both went over 100 yards and caught TDs. All this was done with Saquon Barkley hurt and against a defense that held Jimmy Garopollo to 166 yards and 1 TD in Week 1, and Cam Newton without a TD in Week 2. Barkley is out 4-8 weeks with a high-ankle sprain, which will lead the Giants to have to throw the ball more with 4.0 career yard-per-attempt Wayne Gallman taking over in the backfield. The Giants also have a suspect defense that ranks second-worst in points given up per game at 31.3, so there will be plenty of catch-up being played. Golden Tate comes back from suspension in Week 5, giving Danny Dimes another weapon at his disposal. But with a Week 4 match-up against a Redskins defense that just gave up 3 TDs to Mitch Trubisky (who hadn’t thrown one all year up until that point), Jones, Shepard, and Engram are all great plays.
8. The new normal for Minnesota pass catchers.
The talk all off-season was the Vikings wanted to become a run-first team, and they have become just that. They rank third in rush attempts (103) and dead last in pass attempts (63). Dalvin Cook is having a monster season, but an offense that was once considered to have two WR1s now has zero. Through 3 games, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have combined for 17 catches, 274 reception yards, and 3 reception TDs. Theilen has almost doubled Diggs targets, 11 to 6, and is the safer bet to have back end WR1 (but more likely WR2) value to Diggs being a back end WR2. The Vikings won’t change the offensive philosophy as long as its working, and they are 2-1 and rank seventh in the NFL in points per game with 26. I would be looking to sell to anyone willing to take them on and may think the start of the season is a fluke. The Vikings won’t change the offensive philosophy as long as its working, and they are 2-1 and rank seventh in the NFL in points per game with 26.
9. Baker’s not feeling so dangerous.
The Browns hype train was running off the rails this off-season, and rightfully so. Baker Mayfield was coming off a season in which he broke the rookie passing-TD record by throwing 27 TDs in 13 starts (Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson held the record previously at 26). They fleeced the Giants in a trade for one of the most dynamic playmakers in NFL history, Odell Beckham Jr. The needle was pointing up. He currently ranks as the 23rd QB in fantasy and has thrown five interceptions compared to only 3 touchdowns in 3 games. The offense is still finding its footing under new head coach Freddie Kitchens, and the offensive line has left plenty to be desired in pass protection, with Mayfield already getting sacked 11 times this season. I’d consider benching Mayfield this week going against a Ravens defense that ranks top-10 in both passing yards-per-game and passing TD’s allowed. Although he’s struggled so far, I see Mayfield as a buy low. The hype drove his cost to a point where he had to put up astronomical numbers to return value. Now you can pick him up off waivers in some 1 QB leagues and potentially trade for on the cheap in 2QB/Superflex leagues if the owner is panicking.
10. Kyle Allen‘s second homecoming.
Starting his second career game in relief of an injured Cam Newton, Kyle Allen (born in Scottsdale, Arizona) torched the Cardinals for 261 yards and 4 touchdowns. Allen started Week 17 against the Saints in 2018, throwing two TDs and rushing for another. Allen has thrown for the past six panthers TD, with Cam Newton failing to do so in 2 starts this season and his last 2 starts of the 2018 season. Allen is returning to the state he attended college, going to both Texas A&M and Houston (transferring after sitting behind some guy named Kyler Murray). Allen is facing a Houston defense that ranks bottom-10 in passing-yards given up per game and given up an average of 21 points to Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and the legend known as Gardner Minshew II. The Panthers passing game will be just fine for another week, and I’d start Allen in 2QB/Superflex leagues with the sad state of the QB position this season.
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