10 Things to Know About Week 10 (#FantasyFootball)
1. Welcome to the Devin Singletary Show.
I hope you were able to acquire Devin Singletary before Week 9 because the door to do so has officially been slammed shut. Singletary has seemingly taken over Buffalo’s backfield getting double-digit carries (20) for the first time in his short career, rewarding patient fantasy owners with a 22 point performance (95 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches for 45 receiving yards). Besides a Week 7 dud against Miami, while returning from an injury, Singletary has scored double digits in every game this season on limited touches. Up next is a trip to Cleveland, who gives up the third-most rushing yards per game (141.2), has allowed double-digit points to running backs in five-of-eight games (including both Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman Week 5), and allowed big games to Chris Carson (25), Breida (27), and Derrick Henry (28). Frank Gore is a surefire hall-of-famer and possibly immortal, but the Buffalo has handed the keys over to Singletary. He’s an RB2 with upside for the rest of the season.
2. The Bears offense runs through David Montgomery.
The David Montgomery breakout we’ve been expecting all year seems to finally be upon us. With the Bears passing game a complete disaster with the step back Mitch Trubisky has taken, Matt Nagy finally realized that the way for his team to win is by running the ball and playing defense. It started with a 24 point game Week 8 versus the Chargers on 27 attempts and 5 targets, and 22 points versus the elite run defense of the Philadelphia Eagles 14 attempts and 4 targets. The hot streak should continue for Montgomery, as the poor run defense of the Detroit Lions come to town. Detroit gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game (135.8), has given up the fourth-most rushing TDs (9), and has allowed an opposing running back to score 23 or more points in four straight games (Josh Jacobs – 24, Saquon Barkley – 27, Dalvin Cook – 27, Jamaal Williams – 23). Montgomery’s production should continue this week with the increased touches as well as the prime match-up, start Montgomery everywhere you have him. He’s a high-end RB2 with upside.
3. Don’t get too excited about Damien Williams.
There is nothing I despise more in fantasy sports then when some says “take this play away from player X and they didn’t have that good of a day”. It’s generally an unfair stance to take, some players value comes from big plays after grinding down a defense. However, I am going to use that argument in this instance. It may sound hypocritical, but it’s not due to any fault of Williams or his skill. It comes down to opportunity, and the touches simply haven’t been there. Williams is the type of player who can take it to the house any time he touches the ball. But this was only the third time this season Williams has had more carries than LeSean McCoy. Even leading the team in rushing attempts, it was only 12. Andy Reid has gone with a committee approach this year and it’s all but impossible to tell which running back is going to be the most productive. Williams will have some more productive games, the problem is LeSean McCoy will as well. The problem is the guessing game of starting the right one in the right week. Williams is more of a desperation flex in my opinion versus the RB2 many are seeing him as. Sell high if you can.
4. Jimmy G will stay hot.
The undefeated 49ers have won this year mostly on the backs of the running game and defense, but the tide seems to be turning since acquiring Emmanuel Sanders. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for six touchdowns in the past two games as opposed to seven in the first six games, including his first game over 300 yards. Sanders has caught a touchdown in each of those games and is making an immediate impact on an offense that sorely needed a receiving option outside of George Kittle. On Monday Night Jimmy G faces a Seahawks defense that ranks bottom 5 in passing yards allowed per game(278.1) and has allowed 20 points or more to opposing fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last four games (six-point passing TDs). That includes giving up 460 yards and a touchdown to 38-year-old Matt Schaub. In a game against a Seattle defense that struggles against the pass and a budding connection with Manny Sanders, Jimmy G will light it up on Monday night.
5. Giants and Jets offer plenty of streamers.
The state of the Giants and Jets is not that pretty. Both are headed for a top-10, potentially top-5 pick in next year’s draft. But a positive out of it all is that with both teams having sub-par defenses, it should be a productive game from a fantasy perspective. Both teams give up some of the highest point totals per game (NYG 4th, NYJ 8th), rank in the bottom 10 for passing yards allowed (NYG 263.6, NYJ 263.0), and give up a ton of touchdowns. The Giants are tied for the most touchdowns allowed with 30, and the Jets are tied with multiple teams for the fourth most with 24. Will six teams on bye, its likely that just about all of the skill players will be startable in most leagues. Daniel Jones is a high-end QB2/Superflex starter and a fine bye week replacement in 1QB leagues. Sam Darnold is a bit riskier, but a suitable QB2/Superflex starter with some upside in a potential ugly shootout. You’re starting Saquon Barkley and Le’Veon Bell weekly regardless but Bell flirts with back-end RB1 value this week, where Barkley could wind up the RB1 overall. Golden Tate has established himself as the WR1 for the Giants and should see even more targets with Evan Engram out (and Sterling Shepard‘s continued absence). Darius Slayton is even a flex option in deeper leagues. Both Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson are borderline WR2/WR3s, Crowder the better option in PPR leagues with Anderson having a much higher ceiling. Demaryius Thomas is a deep league flex option, and the TEs on both sides (Rhett Ellison, Chris Herndon) are nothing more than desperation plays.
6. Baker’s woes will continue in Buffalo.
Baker Mayfield is one of the biggest busts of the season, and his struggles will likely continue in Week 10. The Bills field a stout pass defense that doesn’t give much up through the air. Buffalo gives up the 3rd least passing yards per game (184.6) and allowed only 5 passing touchdowns the entire season. The Bills defense has held five of eight quarterbacks to under 200 yards, three of them to zero passing touchdowns (Dwayne Haskins, Marcus Mariota, and Tom Brady), hasn’t allowed a single 300-yard passer, and hasn’t allowed any QB to throw multiple touchdowns. Mayfield is someone who belongs on the bench if at all possible, but with byes, he may have to be started in 2QB/Superflex leagues. With the match-up, you also have to downgrade the Browns top pass catchers in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. OBJ a WR2 who always holds the possibility of breaking off a long touchdown and Landry is a WR3/Flex option in PPR leagues. Both receivers are likely being started in most leagues with all the teams on bye, but keep your expectations in check.
7. Expect lots of points in the Bruce Arians revenge game.
A similar formula to the Giants and Jets game, the Cardinals and Buccaneers are two teams that have bottom-of-the-barrel defenses while boasting talent on the offensive side of the ball. Both are also headed for potentially top 10 draft picks in the 2020 draft, but all we care about is fantasy production. Tampa Bay gives up the second-most points per game (31.5), the tenth most yards per game (371.6), and Arizona gives up the fifth-most points (27.9) and third-most yards (407.6). Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray are top-10 options, either one could easily wind up the QB1 on the week. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are every week starts, and both are top-5 options who can wind up the WR1 on the week. See a trend forming here? Christian Kirk is a high-end WR2 with extremely high upside, and Larry Fitzgerald is a WR3 with a lower ceiling but a higher floor. David Johnson is expected to return but is likely in a timeshare with newly acquired Kenyan Drake. Tampa boasts one of the best rush defenses in the league, giving up a league-best 78.1 yards per game on the ground and only six rushing touchdowns. Both are startable as low-end RB2s but have extremely low floors. Ronald Jones was recently named the starter by Bruce Arians and has a productive game against Seattle with 15 points in Week 9. Arizona gives up the tenth most yards per game on the ground (126.9) but has only given up 4 rushing touchdowns. Jones is an RB2 who offers some upside in what should be a high scoring affair. The Cardinals don’t use the TE in the passing game, and although Arizona is the best fantasy matchup for TE’s, Arians is notorious for not using them. There is a chance O.J. Howard or Cameron Brate could catch a touchdown, but this offense runs through Evans and Godwin. Brate and Howard are nothing more than desperation plays.
8. Kareem Hunt kicks off his Cleveland career.
Coming off of tumultuous off-season that included an eight-game suspension and surgery to repair a sports hernia, Kareem Hunt will make his Browns debut in Week 10 against the Bills. Although they boast a ferocious pass defense, the Bills can be run on. They give up 111.6 yards per game on the ground and have allowed an opposing running back to either gain 100 total yards or score a touchdown in each game this season. Kareem Hunt is extremely talented, but this is still Nick Chubb‘s backfield. Not much has gone right for the Browns this season, but Chubb has. He’s currently RB6 in PPR scoring and fifth overall in rushing with 803 yards. Hunt will get some touches, but Dontrell Hilliard was already (somehow) playing 20 percent of snaps. I do expect Hunt to be more involved than Hilliard, but not enough to significantly impact Chubb. Hunt is a sneaky flex option this week, and Chubb remains a top 10 option. With a great playoff schedule, see if you can trade for Chubb at a discount.
9. Packers run game with plow the Panthers.
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Although they have one of the better defenses in the league, the Panthers weakness is the run. They’ve given up a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns and give up the seventh-most yards per game on the ground (133.4). Opposing running backs have scored at least double digits points in six of eight games and over 20 three times, including a 37 point shellacking from Tevin Coleman in Week 8. The backfield is a committee but Aaron Jones is on the heavy side and checks in as an RB1 this week and a top 5 option. Jamaal Williams is a back-end RB who has the potential to finish as an RB1 if he’s able to get into the end-zone a time or two. With six teams on bye, both are being started in just about every league and should produce.
10. Start playoff prep (as long as you’re in).
This seems like a simple enough nugget of advice, but a lot of newer fantasy players overlook this every year. If you are locked into the playoffs or close to it, now is the time to start looking towards playoff match-ups. Most trade deadlines are approaching, so take a look at your team and see if there are moves you can make to gain an edge in weeks 14-16. Take a look at waivers and see players who were dropped because of bye-pocalypse. Target owners who have holes to fill because of the byes and take advantage of the situation. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Cleveland are teams that have great playoff schedules that you may be able to target players from. LA Rams, Dallas, and Kansas City have some tough match-ups, and I’m not suggesting getting rid of Patrick Mahomes or Ezekiel Elliott. But you may look into moving Jared Goff or others who aren’t match-up proof starters. Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh are three playoff defenses with the best match-ups. If you’re unable to acquire one of them, look to find two defenses that schedules fit together for the playoffs.
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