The Game Plan For Week 13’s Thanksgiving Day (#FantasyFootball)
Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% hammering the overs by at least two on a food coma from turkey, sweet potato mash and wine, so much wine this Thursday. But still, each week I will give to you some plays to make in regards to your Fantasy teams weekly roster construction, DFS selections or Dynasty evaluations.
So before we get started, Thank you! Thank you for reading my wonderful readers and for the feedback and support from the @GoingFor_2 and @TheBackRowShow people. Thanks for a hell of a year, and for not firing my ass! You’ve both had plenty of chances to do so, so thanks for giving me another week!
IT’S A THANKSGIVING MIRACLE!
No, really. I’m as stunned as you that this article came out this early in the week. But we have three important games to look at today and let’s focus on that for a change.
Slant Route
Who is trending up this week?
The Chicago Bears?
Yeah. Speaking of stunned. The Bears have the chance to win two in a row despite continually getting in their own way. No, please Matt Nagy tell me how you are running the ball more and how Mitchell Trubisky is battling through injury – as if no one else is hurt either.
But the Bears now get Detroit who looks like a fun team to watch away from home. The Bears aren’t exactly out of the playoff picture but wins against divisional rivals down the stretch can only help their cause.
I like the Bears to shut the Lions down this week. They’re still stingy on the ground allowing only 83 yards per game and are allowing the second least amount of points per game to the wide receivers with a 15.9 average. It could be a rough day for Detroit who could be without backup bow starter Quarterback Jeff Driskel, who could be out with a hamstring issue.
The Bears aren’t exactly out of the playoff picture but wins against divisional rivals down the stretch is the only thing that can help their cause. They hold the same record as the second-placed Eagles in the East and the second-placed Panthers in the South. But catching Green Bay and Minnesota (who the Bears get to play both again) and Seattle may be a tough ask and winning out is their only way in.
Flat Route
The bubble has burst on:
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Buffalo.
Kind of.
It’s a bit rich I know because they had a fantastic win this week. And don’t get me wrong I love the #BillsMafia, but, the Bills run into the end of the regular season is tough. And by no means am I saying that they can’t get through the storm – I believe they are playoff bound for sure – but games against Dallas (away), Baltimore (home), Pittsburgh (away), New England (away), and the Jets (home) over the rest of the season won’t be easy.
The good news is they play Dallas this week who were stopped in a close one at New England this past week, who can’t stop the run at all. That’s great news for Devin Singletary and Hall of Fame-bound Frank Gore, but probably more so for Josh Allen who has an average of 35 yards per game rushing this year with 7 rushing touchdowns to go with it.
Josh Allen is respectfully priced at $6200 this week, and I feel is a bargain considering the Cowboys and… well, more on that below. But chuck Josh Allen in and feel fantastic still.
Comeback Route
Who will recover after a poor performance in the previous week:
Speaking of Dallas…
Not one player or staff member would have been happy to see Jerry Jones’ comments about the team earlier this week, and the ‘get right’ right game on thanksgiving at home will be the launching pad for their Superbowl aspirations.
On their day, they can beat anyone. And Dak Prescott has earned his big future paycheck in my opinion – pay the man – but other games they look flat out ordinary.
At home this week they get the above-mentioned Buffalo who are maybe currently punching above their weight this year. But Dallas on Thursday’s, Dallas in prime time, and Dallas on thanksgiving (30-19-1) a different machine. The Bills have hit about 24 ppg over their last month, but Dallas on thanksgiving has hit the ‘Overs’ 3 out of the last 4 games.
The line is sitting at 45 points currently and I can see that hit, however, Dallas as -6.5 favorites? I don’t think so. I’m taking the Bills with the +6.5, and the ‘Overs’, but Dallas wins this in a high scoring affair.
Screen Route
The contrarian play of the week:
Atlanta spanked the Saints two weeks ago on the road, and this week is in prime time at home on the short week (and a big ‘if’ if Marshon Lattimore misses another game). I’m not sure many will take the Falcons again after this week’s Swiss cheese performance against the Buccaneers, but keeping New Orleans to 9 points at home a few weeks back I believe was not a fluke. The ‘Unders’ were smashed the last time they met, and the line is sitting at 49 points. But what is it that they say about home underdogs and high lines? To fade that option, right?
Wrong (well for this game anyway).
I’m taking the ‘Overs’ of 49 in this one. The Saints have been averaging about 28 ppg since Week 7 and provided the Falcons can hit pay dirt a couple of times and Younghoe Koo can swing his leg straight to help them live up to their end of the bargain, I can see that going over quite easily.
Out Route
Who am I completely off this week:
Detroit Running Backs vs Chicago.
I can’t even pretend to guess what’s going to happen here, let alone do the work to tell you (but gosh darn it, I’ll try dag nabbit) that it probably won’t end well for them. Yeah I get it the Lions are at home and it’s Thanksgiving and all that fun narrative but as I mentioned before, Chicago is brutal towards the Running Back:
Week 12; Saquon Barkley 59 yards.
Week 11; Todd Gurley 113 yards.
Week 10; J.D. McKissic 36 yards.
Week 9; Jordan Howard 82 yards.
Week 8; Melvin Gordon 32 yards.
It goes like this for most of the year. The Bears have somewhat been hit by Running Backs in the air, but again, with a third-string Quarterback potentially lining up, how much you can trust anything the Lions are doing in that backfield? I can’t trust them, and you should be skeptical too.
The 9 Route
A straight forward confidence play of the week:
Michael Thomas is this year’s Todd Gurley (not literally, figuratively). If you have him on your roster, chances are you already have one hand on your league’s Fantasy trophy already. His near average 24 ppg has him cemented atop to the Receivers charts. So much so that on Thursday there is an $1800 price difference between Michael Thomas and the next Receiver on the card in Julio Jones.
Michael Thomas playing in Atlanta has some crazy good stats to go with it too. In two out of the three times he has played in Georgia, he has had either of the following:
- 14 Targets, and/or –
- 10 Receptions, and/or –
- A Touchdown, and/or –
- An average of 134 yards receiving.
Decent.
Hammer Michael Thomas ($9100 on Draft Kings) in all formats this week. He is our consensus WR3 in our Dynasty Rankings at @GoingFor_2. I’d happily assume he sits on the top of that mountain when the new season begins.
Hail Mary Play Of The Week
Slot! Slot! Slot! Slot! Slot! Slot! Everybody!
It’s going to be the day of the slot Receiver this thanksgiving and I’m all for it.
I’m getting down with an Anthony Miller touchdown with 45+ yards against the Lions, as Allen Robinson likely gets the Darius Slay treatment, a Calvin Ridley touchdown with 55+ yards against the Saints at home (who has 4 touchdowns in 3 games against them), and a Cole Beasley revenge game for a touchdown and 75+ yards.
Stay slotty mi amigos and amigettes!
I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Don’t forget to check out the #GF2 weekly rankings which you can find https://goingfor2.com/2019-fantasy-football-redraft-rankings-gf2-consensus/ and to subscribe, rate, review, and share and listen to The Armchair Fantasy Show podcast.
Let’s all get better together!
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