Yahoo DFS Week 16

Week 16 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses, and Super Stacks.

The main Yahoo slate does not include the Saturday games or Monday Night Football.

For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Two teams play Home and Dome during the Week 15 Sunday slate:

Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers

Preferred Position Price Points

Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.

QB – $26

Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA vs CIN

It’s all about the matchup as the Bengals have given up the 9th most fantasy points to QBs in 2019. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been slinging the football and has found a connection of late with DeVante Parker. Furthermore, while he doesn’t look the part, Fitzpatrick has been able to add some rushing production to his repertoire. In 70% of the games since the Dolphins bye week, Fitzpatrick has at least 4 rushing attempts. He even has the chance to get a rushing TD.

Kyle Murray ARI @ SEA

No one will confuse Fitzpatrick’s running ability to Kyler Murray. The rookie has come as advertised and is 2nd among NFL QBs in rushing yards this season. The production on the ground creates a floor for Murray, making this more of a cash play than a tournament consideration.

 RB – $25

Alvin Kamara NO @ TEN

After a few sub-par performances for Alvin Kamara, his price has dropped to a season-low Sunday slate price of $25. That drops Kamara right into this week’s preferred price point for the RB position. What you are paying for with that player is his role in such an explosive offense. The Saints-Titans matchup has the 2nd highest combined over/under of the slate at 50 points. While his TD numbers are significantly lower this season, Kamara still has a decent opportunity to find the end zone this week.

Marlon Mack IND vs CAR

Marlon Mack gets the best matchup of all, as the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in 2019. The main concern for Mack might be the presence of Jordan Wilkins. It was Wilkins who received both of the team’s Red Zone carries last week and capped it off with a TD. The blowout nature of that contest may have influenced why Wilkins had that role so late in the game. This week, against a Carolina team that they favored by 6.5 points, the Colts should utilize a heavy dose of Mack to establish and maintain a lead.

WR – $29 – $30

Julio Jones ATL vs JAX $30

We only have one game as a sample size. However, it is difficult to ignore that Julio Jones saw 20 targets in the first game this season without Calvin Ridley. While that draws extra attention toward him, Jones has shown in his career that he can still produce in that situation. While the Jaguars have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to WRs, there have been some productive outings against them. A.J. Brown had a 20+ point fantasy performance vs Jacksonville just 3 weeks ago. All due respect to Brown, but Jones is on another level and should be able to replicate that.

Tyreek Hill KC @ CHI $29

While the Bears defense is a rather intimidating unit, they have not been quite as effective as they were last season. Kyle Fuller is a great CB, but he does not have the speed the hang with Tyreek Hill play after play. Chicago has not often double-covered any receiver and prefers to trust Fuller to shut down opposing WRs. There will likely be help over the top to minimize the chance of big plays, but if Hill can get past Fuller, he’ll be in position to catch a lot of footballs.

TE – $18 – $19

Jacob Hollister SEA vs ARI $19

The Cardinals have surrendered the most fantasy points to TEs in 2019. While Jacob Hollister has struggled with back-to-back sub-40 yard games and has not found the end zone for 4 straight matches, he is in a great spot to redeem himself. Hollister is 3rd on the Seahawks in Red Zone targets during 2019. What is most amazing about that is Hollister did not play on offense until week 7.

Darren Waller OAK @ LAC $18

While there was a mid-season dip, Darren Waller has regained his status as the Raiders’ top target. That will certainly help his team, as well as his fantasy outlook for this week. While the Chargers are not particularly vulnerable to TEs, (they have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to the position in 2019) it is a better matchup then with the WRs. Only two teams have given up fewer fantasy points to TEs this season than the Chargers. Oakland’s game plan will probably be the run the football often, but when they do pass, expect Waller to be the first look often.

Best Bet Bargains

RB – Myles Gaskin MIA vs CIN $12

In week 14, Patrick Laird played in 89 of the Dolphins offensive snaps, while Myles Gaskin only played in 12%. However, last week both RBs split and even 48% to 48%. And even though Laird had 3 more carries, and 3 more targets than his teammate, Gaskin outproduced him in scrimmage yards 62 to 54. While not a large number, it is telling that Gaskin has begun to take over. Perhaps this week we see Gaskin get closer to a workhorse. He certainly has the matchup to exploit as the Bengals have given up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

WR – Anthony Miller CHI vs KC $16

It is very difficult to find a WR with the type of target share that Anthony Miller has had recently, yet is only priced at $16. Miller has at least 9 targets and 6 receptions in 4 of the last 5 games. Once again, Taylor Gabriel has been ruled, leaving Miller as one of the Bears’ top 2 targets. In 3 of the last 5 contests, Miller actually out targeted Allen Robinson, including last week when Miller had 15, while Robinson had 14. It is a great sign that Miller is heavily involved even when Robinson is being peppered with targets. Look for that to continue against the Chiefs in a game that could be very high scoring.

TE – Jonnu Smith TEN vs NO

If Marshon Lattimore shadows A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill may need to rely on someone other then his #1 WR. That player could potentially be Jonnu Smith. While he has not been a consistent producer, how many TEs really are? Certainly not one who is only $13. So you are not paying for consistency, you are getting a cheap option in a potentially high-scoring game. The Saints-Titans match has the 2nd highest combined over/under of the week at 50 points.

Dominant Defence

Denver Broncos vs DET $13

With a smaller Sunday slate, there comes a shortage of viable fantasy defenses to play. There is no need to pay up in this case, because the Broncos may be among arguably the best units to play, regardless of price. Take into account that they are only $13, then Denver is maybe the best value on the slate. In week 16, the team hosts the Lions, a team currently quarterbacked by David Blough. While Blough threw a pair of TD passes in his first start, the last two matchups have not been kind to him. Blough tossed 1 TD and 4 INT combined over the last two weeks. Broncos have a great chance to get turnovers.

Super Stacks

Cardinals @ Seahawks

QB – Russell Wilson SEA $37

RB – Chris Carson SEA $35

WR – Larry Fitzgerald ARI $11

The Cardinals-Seahawks game features the highest combined over/under on the slate. This is mostly due to Seattle whose 29.5 point implied total is best in the league this week. Arizona has been vulnerable all over the field surrendering the most fantasy points to QBs and the 10th most to RBs in the Yahoo scoring format. Russell Wilson is the type of QB who does not need volume to have a massive fantasy day. Earlier this year, there was a game where Wilson threw 4 TD passes on only 23 attempts. That ability could be very useful with Chris Carson running the football and gained yards, presumably with ease.

Now, both Wilson and Carson are expensive. There are, however, some cheap options to expand this stack. First of all, there is Jacob Hollister who was mentioned in the Preferred Price Point for TEs. Looking at the opposite side of the matchup, Larry Fitzgerald is only $11. With Christian Kirk a game-time decision and clearly not 100%, Fitzgerald could see an elevation is target share for a bargain price tag.

Washington

QB – Dwayne Haskins $21

WR – Terry McLaurin $22

It’s a simple stack, but one that could very effective. The Giants have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to QBs and the 5th most to WRs in 2019. Dwayne Haskins has improved with every start and that culminated in his best fantasy performance during week 15. Fresh off of that game, look for Haskins keep producing, especially against this vulnerable Giants secondary.

If Haskins puts up numbers, then look for Terry McLaurin to be on the receiving end of most of them. Naturally, with Haskins’ best fantasy performance of 2019 coming last week, McLaurin also produced a season-high 21.5 fantasy points. He could potentially eclipse that mark this week.

Other Stacks: Saints-Titans, Chiefs-Bears

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