Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Ronald Jones
RB Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | 3rd Year
2019 Stats: 172 carries for 724 yards, 6 TD; 31 receptions for 309 yards
After a lost rookie season in 2018 (23 carries in nine games), Ronald Jones got more opportunity last year. But even with that he only played 36 percent of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps, in a split with Peyton Barber, with eight games he played one-third or less of the snaps.
Using the (low) bar of double-digit carry games, let’s look at how Jones did in his double-digit carry games last year.
Week 1 vs. 49ers: 13 carries for 75 yards; one catch for 18 yards
Week 3 vs. Giants: 14 carries for 80 yards; one catch for 41 yards
Week 4 at Rams: 19 carries for 70 yards, 1 TD; one catch for 12 yards
Week 8 at Titans: 11 carries for 35 yards; one catch for 17 yards
Week 9 at Seahawks: 18 carries for 67 yards, 1 TD; two catches for 15 yards
Week 10 vs. Cardinals: 11 carries for 29 yards, 1 TD; eight catches for 77 yards
Week 12 at Falcons: 12 carries for 51 yards, 1 TD; three catches for 16 yards
Week 14 vs. Colts: 11 carries for 36 yards; four catches for 23 yards
Week 15 @ Lions: 11 carries for 23 yards; one catch for 26 yards
Week 16 vs. Texans: 14 carries for 77 yards, 1 TD; three catches for 32 yards
Week 17 vs. Falcons: 11 carries for 106 yards; two catches for 10 yards
There are some bad defenses in there. But Jones topped 60 total yards in eight of those 11 games, with over 80 total yards seven times. In full PPR scoring, he posted double-digit points eight times with one narrow miss (9.9). In full PPR from Week 9-Week 7, he was RB19. Going back one more week, to right after the Buccaneers’ bye, Jones was RB23 in full PPR (per Fantasy Pros) from Week 8-17. For the season, he was RB25 in full PPR.
The Buccaneers seemed sure to draft a running back in April, and they indeed pulled the trigger on Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round. In concert with the buzz that he’ll become the lead back, whatever Jones’ fantasy stock had has been diminished. There are some Jones truthers out there, but his struggles in pass protection last year aren’t going to fit well in the same backfield as Tom Brady.
In signing with Washington as a free agent, Barber is leaving behind 154 carries and six rushing touchdowns from last year. He’s also leaving behind 22 red zone carries (a 37.9 percent team share; 13 inside the 10-yard line, 10 inside the five-yard line). That type of usage in the scoring area is notable, and Vaughn won’t take it all in an offense that surely won’t turn the ball over in Jameis Winston-type bushels again this year.
Jones had 20 red zone carries himself last year, including a 4-for-4 touchdown conversion rate inside the 5-yard line (Barber was 4-for-10 inside the 5). Brady-led offenses in New England routinely leaned run in goal line situations, and 2019 was no different.
Most rushing TDs from inside the five-yard line last season
Patriots – 13
Eagles – 13
Vikings – 13
Texans – 13 pic.twitter.com/RIoSSPGlY2— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 22, 2020
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The idea of an even split of what should be fruitful work between Jones and Vaughn is lined up to frustrate fantasy owners. Vaughn had 21 rushing touchdowns in his two seasons at Vanderbilt, so a helping of the red zone and goal line work will surely be his.
Via Fantasy Pros ADP, Jones is coming in at RB33 (full PPR), RB37 (standard) and RB36 (half-PPR).
It wouldn’t take much more than he did last year for Jones to break into RB2 range this year. If he gets over 1,000 total yards again, with one more touchdown and/or a handful more catches, it can get done. There’s a clearer path to exactly that than it might seem, which inspires my projection, but the downside risk of Vaughn’s presence pushes a true RB2 breakout toward coin flip territory for Jones.
2020 Projection: 199 carries for 830 yards, 7 TD; 36 catches for 288 yards
Breakout Confidence Level: 51%
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