Week 2 Buy Low, Sell High: Redraft Edition

Football is back, baby, and it’s about damn time!

A full slate of NFL games is exactly we needed to cure our hunger after a heavily modified offseason that saw the preseason shrink from four games to two, and eventually to zero, OTA’s being erased, and a much shorter training camp. The new COVID policies also limited what reporters were able to release and at what time, which made it even more difficult to have any sense of what was happening at each facility around the league. Once that first injury report came out last Thursday though, that’s when the dream of a season in 2020 finally became a reality. A long-waited, but beautiful, reality.

Considering this is a Buy Low, Sell High article, I feel the need to preach the biggest piece of advice at the beginning of a new fantasy season. DO NOT OVERREACT TO SOMEONE’S WEEK ONE PERFORMANCE! Listen, we all do it. Everybody wants their team to storm out of the gate, but that’s not the case more times than not. Do not panic and sell someone you drafted in the early rounds at a ridiculously low price, ala Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas. On the other hand of the equation, send lesser offers for those big dogs. You never know, the owner of one of those guys in your league just might be ready to offload them after one week.

 

Quarterbacks

Buy Low: Carson Wentz

Wentz had a tale of two halves on Sunday in Washington. After getting the Eagles out to a 17-0 lead thru a quarter and a half, Wentz and the rest of the Eagles began to crumble. Wentz finished the day throwing for 270 yards on 57% passing, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and two fumbles (one lost). The Eagles line had a big reason into Wentz poor performance, as he was sacked eight times and led the league in week one in QB hits. This was without their All-Pro RT, Lane Johnson, who attempted to play but was eventually ruled out. The offense was also without starting RB, Miles Sanders, and starting receiver, Alshon Jeffrey. Those three should all be back in the next two weeks, which bodes well for Wentz production for both fantasy owners and the Eagles.

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff

 

Sell High: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers had the second-best fantasy performance of week one at the position against a porous Vikings defense. Rodgers threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns on just under 73% passing completion. A near-perfect day for the 2x MVP, but there’s worry regarding if this was a one-time thing or could this be a consistent outing for the rest of the season? The Packers will see some more challenging defenses over the next month, including the Saints and Buccaneers, so that will give us a more definite answer. For now, however, I wouldn’t count on Rodgers giving me a top-5 fantasy finish many more times on the season. As he continues to get older and is still surrounded by a below-average receiving core, outside of Davante Adams, it spells inconsistency for me. There might not be a better time to move on from Rodgers than right now.

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Mitch Trubisky

 

Running Backs

Buy Low: Jonathon Taylor

Trust me when I tell you that there will not be a better opportunity to trade for Jonathon Taylor than right now. The Colts lost Marlon Mack for the rest of the season after an Achilles injury and Taylor has already been named the starter for Indianapolis by head coach, Frank Reich. Although Taylor had a less than stellar opening game on the ground, nine rushes for only 22 yards, there were plenty of great signs for the rookie. Taylor’s usage in the passing game was an unknown coming into the season but will seemingly be involved heavily after catching six passes for 67 yards in week one. The Colts come into the 2020 season with the easiest schedule in the league based on SOS, so that in combination with one of, if not, the best offensive lines in football, Taylor could heat up real quick for fantasy, starting this weekend against the Vikings. 

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Cam Akers

 

Sell High: Chris Carson

A quick glance at Carson’s week one performance tells you that he finished as an RB1 in the first week of the season and outperformed his draft position already. A closer glance tells you that he was highly efficient in the receiving category and his two touchdowns helped elevate him over other running backs. But the closest, ugliest glance shows you that Carson only ran the ball six times, for 21 yards, and was on the field for a measly 45% of offensive snaps. With that limited work, Carson’s week one fantasy performance was as close to the best-case scenario as it could’ve gotten. Carlos Hyde only played seven fewer snaps than Carson while Travis Homer was the snap leader on third-down. Seattle is seemingly using a stronger committee approach than some anticipated, so believing in Carson on a week-to-week basis could become a difficult thing to trust.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Malcolm Brown, David Johnson

 

Wide Receivers

Buy Low: AJ Brown

When you see how many times Tannehill threw the ball on Monday night, you’d assume that Brown would’ve gotten a lot of attention from it. However, Brown only had 39 yards on five receptions. A lackluster game, to say the least, Brown found himself targeted on eight of Tannehill’s 43 attempts, good for an 18% target share. Going forward, I don’t see the Titans throwing 43 times a game in their run-first offense, so the opportunity will probably shrink some. On the other hand, it’s very difficult to see a world where Brown is that inefficient while teammate, Corey Davis, hauls in seven catches for 101 yards. Look for Brown to bounce back big over the next couple weeks, as he gets Jacksonville and Minnesota. Brown’s value in fantasy should return to normality, or even pass his draft price, after those two matchups.

Honorable Mention: Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks

 

Sell High: Juju Smith-Schuster

After much debate about how the Steelers offense would look with a healthy Big Ben finally back after a disappointing 2019 campaign, Juju was the bright spot for Pittsburgh offensively. The fourth-year product from USC caught all six of his targets for 69 yards and tacked on two touchdowns as well. The biggest cause of concern for me is teammate, Diontae Johnson, receiving four more targets than Juju with the teams lead signal-caller back under center. Could it just have been a matchup thing? Of course, but Johnson receiving more attention from the Steelers quarterback was a trend in all of 2019 as well. Smith-Schuster will definitely improve from his last season, but until he is able to consistently outpace Johnson, I’m going to struggle to value him highly. After a strong week one performance, now could be a good opportunity to trade his services for someone like Robert Woods, where consistency and TD opportunity is there.

Honorable Mention: Darius Slayton, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson

 

Tight Ends

Buy Low: George Kittle

Kittle had a below-average game for his standards, only four receptions for 44 yards, against a much improved Cardinals defense. Kittle did suffer an injury during the contest after having his knee hit while bringing down a catch. Labeled as a knee sprain, this is a similar injury to what Kittle had last season where he missed a couple of games. More than likely, the Kittle owner in your league will stash him and hit the waiver wire if he misses any time. Nonetheless, with the beginning of season panic at an all-time high right now in addition to the possibility of missing some time, you might just be able to get a deal done below his value.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Eric Ebron, Hayden Hurst

 

Sell High: Dallas Goedert

Probably the most chalk option in this article, Goedert is the obvious candidate as a sell-high tight end. Although it’s closer than it once was, Ertz is still the #1 option at the position in Philadelphia. That being said, Goedert is still easily a top-15 option at the position on a week-to-week basis in fantasy. Goedert possesses more of a mismatch/down-the-field threat than Ertz, but Ertz, as long as he is in Philadelphia, is still the go-to TE for Wentz in that offense. 

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Jonnu Smith

 

 

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