10 Things to Know About Week 3 (#FantasyFootball)
The massacre that was Week 2 was unlike anything we’ve ever seen, as a significant amount of players were hurt. But the show must go on and although you can’t expect to completely replace the production of a Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey, where there is opportunity there is value. Let’s take a look at what you need to know for Week 3 and some players who can help fill the void.
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1. The Herbert era begins in Los Angeles.
In what has to be one of the craziest ways a rookie got his first start, Justin Herbert was thrust into the starting lineup in Week 2 after a Chargers team doctor accidentally punctured the lung of Tyrod Taylor while trying to administer a pain-killing shot. Nobody would have been surprised if Herbert was overwhelmed by the moment, informed minutes before kickoff that he’d have his first NFL start against the defending Superbowl Champions. But Herbert shined, completing 22 of 33 passes for 311 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception. He showed he’s also able to contribute with his legs, rushing four times for 18 yards and adding a rushing touchdown as well. Head Coach Anthony Lynn claims Taylor is still the starter when healthy, but if Herbert continues to excel, there is no way he’ll be benched. Stock up on all Chargers pass-catchers, and if Herbert continues his solid play, he can be a QB2 or bye week replacement for Superflex leagues. Check to see if he’s still floating out there on waivers. He just may be lighting in a bottle.
2. Start Joshua Kelley.
Speaking of rookies for the Chargers, Herbert isn’t the only one who’s impressed so far this season. It seems as if Joshua Kelley will be the thunder to Austin Ekeler‘s lightning. He’s scored over 12 points in both weeks this season thanks to a touchdown in Week 1 and combining for over 100 yards in Week 2 (64 rushing, 49 receiving). What’s impressive is Kelley is getting the valuable goal line touches. Through two weeks, he’s gotten eight red-zone opportunities to Ekeler’s five. He’s playing 38.9% of total snaps and touches the ball 60.7% of the snaps he plays. If he’s in, chances are he’s getting the ball. Kelley has a fantastic matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers, who have given up the most points to running backs so far this season. He’s a great play replacement for those who may have lost a running back to injury this week as a solid RB2. He’s got blow-up potential in this matchup.
3.Sit your Texans.
Expect a rough start to the season to continue for Deshaun Watson and the Texans, as they head to Pittsburg to face one of the best defenses in the entire NFL. The Steelers are only giving up 18.5 points per game, have 10 sacks and three interceptions through two games, and only allowing 305 yards of total offense per game. Watson has yet to throw for over 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in a game, as losing DeAndre Hopkins has hurt his production as anybody other than Bill O’Brien would expect. Although he has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2:2, I do think Watson will turn it around eventually. It just won’t start this week against the Steelers. If you have other viable options, sit any Texans you have. This game could get real ugly real quick.
4. Everybody loves a free Sample.
Another team that lost a player for the year in Week 2 was the Cincinnati Bengals, as TE CJ Uzomah went down with a torn Achilles’ tendon. But Drew Sample stepped right in and produced, getting 9 targets and turning them into 7 catches for 45 yards. Joe Burrow has thrown to the tight end position a lot, to the tune of 21 targets on 97 attempts (22%). While I don’t expect Sample to be a week-in-week-out TE1, I do think he’s a perfect streamer when the matchup is right. That happens to be this week, as the Eagles have been a fantasy-friendly matchup to the tight end position, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They allowed touchdowns to both Logan Thomas in Week 1 and Tyler Higbee win Week 2, who torched Philly for 3 scores. Sample is a great streaming TE and a fine start for Week 3.
5. Get Preston Williams before its too late.
Offseason darling Preston Williams has had a tough go of it so far this season. But he’s someone I’m targeting in trades and checking the waiver wire to see if he’s been dropped, because his breakout week is coming. Going up against Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White in the first two weeks would be grueling for any wide receiver, let alone someone coming back from a torn ACL. Williams has the highest snap % of any offensive player not named Ryan Fitzpatrick at 85.4% and is tied with DeVante Parker in targets with 12. He’s come close to scoring a touchdown on more than one occasion, and if he had nobody would be worried about him right now. We always knew it would take time for Williams to get back to full speed coming off the ACL injury, but the signs are all there for him to continue the breakout he started in 2019. Get him before its too late.
6. 2018 Todd Gurley isn’t coming back.
There was a lot of excitement for Todd Gurley going back to college stomping grounds when he signed with the Falcons, but the reason the Rams cut him is becoming more apparent. He’s getting the touches (43% touches on 64% snaps), but he’s simply not producing. Gurley is averaging 3.3 yards per attempt, and only has five targets on the season. The Falcons are a pass-happy offense with plenty of weapons, so if Gurley isn’t getting targets and struggling to produce much on the ground, he can’t be counted on as anything but a borderline RB2. With as good as this offense is, he’ll have some blow-up games where he gets a few touchdowns thanks to plenty of red-zone trips. He has all of the red zone carries so far for the Falcons. But Gurley is not the same player he once was, and with a tough matchup against a good Bears defense, could disappoint again this week.
7. Danny Dimes isn’t dead yet.
Not much was expected from the New York Giants this season, but their offense was pointed out as a potential bright spot for the rebuilding Giants. That took a significant hit when they lost Saquon Barkley for the season to a torn ACL and Sterling Shepard for a few weeks with turf toe. But Daniel Jones will still hold plenty of fantasy value for a few reasons. He still has plenty of weapons in Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Evan Engram. Newly signed Devonta Freeman should pair nicely with Dion Lewis as pass-catching options as well. Danny Dimes was able to put up 279 yards and two touchdowns against the stout Steelers defense in Week 1 and will be in plenty of favorable game scripts with the Giant’s abysmal defense. He’s a perfect QB2 for Superflex who can easily have QB1 weeks when the Giants are chasing points.
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8. Bronco’s still offer plenty of fantasy value.
The injury bug has hit the Denver Bronco’s pretty hard this season, including QB Drew Lock, RB Phillip Lindsay, and WR Courland Sutton. But even with Jeff Driskel under center, Denver has plenty of players who can contribute to your fantasy team. With the Sutton out for the season with a torn ACL, the stock is obviously up for rookie WR Jerry Jeudy. But don’t sleep on fellow rook KJ Hamler, who had a higher snap percentage than Jeudy in Week 2 (62% to 57%) and tied him in targets (7). He’s a big play waiting to happen and a solid bench stash. I wasn’t too high on Melvin Gordon this offseason due to the fact he was sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay, but as long as Lindsay is out with turf toe, Gordon is a rock solid-start. He’s had a 79% snap count averaging 16 points per game, and until Lindsay returns, his value is boosted into borderline RB1 status.
9. The Bills backfield is a headache.
Although they form a formidable one-two punch for the Buffalo Bills, the committee backfield of Devin Singletary and Zach Moss is something fantasy managers hate to see. Although Singletary has the slight edge in carries (19 to 17), snap percentage (57 to 45), and fantasy points (19.9 to 15.4), Moss has done just enough to suppress his value. Moss is getting the more valuable red-zone looks, outpacing Singletary 10 to 4 through two games. Having a quarterback who can get it done with his legs like Josh Allen, whos second on the team with 76 rushing yards (Singletary 86, Moss 48) only makes this an even bigger mess. Singletary is getting more targets and the work between the 20’s while Moss is getting the red-zone work. At this point, both are nothing more than flex plays who limit each other’s upside. I’m avoiding both until one of them starts to the majority of the work, if that ever happens.
10. Take advantage of panicking managers.
This is a bit of an extension of “don’t panic” from Week 1, but plenty of 0-2 fantasy managers have done it. We expected a whole heck of a lot more out of the likes of D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, and AJ Brown at this point of the season. A winless manager gets pissed after a second straight loss and drops underperforming players. I’ve seen it time and time again. Take a peek at the wire and scoop up any high upside players who have started slow. A few years ago I was able to scoop up Nick Chubb after being cut by a frustrated manager, and it ended up helping push me to a championship. If you have the room stash the likes of Akers or Swift on the end of your bench, it could be a league-winning pickup.
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