Todd Gurley: Success Found in Chaos

In the 2020 offseason running back Todd Gurley was dealt a change of scenery, a player who was once looked to be the benchmark for all other backs exchanged Los Angeles Rams blue and white for Atlanta Falcons black and red. What he brought with him was a penchant for touchdowns, 42 combined over his previous three seasons, and a chronic arthritic knee that helped bring his yardage total from 1,251 in 2018, to a career-low 857 in 2019. What would be made of this player who would be joining the offensive powerhouse Falcons? Atlanta does have a possible top-three receiver in Julio Jones, one-time league MVP Matt Ryan, as well as head coach Dan Quinn who’s worse yardage and points team rankings in his five seasons are 8th and 15th respectively. What could go wrong?

Now a month into the 2020 season the Falcons relieved Quinn of his coaching duties, Jones has played in only 10 quarters of a possible 20, and Ryan has failed to throw a touchdown pass since week three. The only bright spot has been that of newcomer Gurley, a touchdown recorded in four of five games, a recent 100-yard performance, man what a great value he has turned out to be! So, now we need to add a dose of reality, something 2020 is always so ready to provide.

The above chart showcases the five-week stretch to start the 2020 season, with a split breakdown of when both Gurley and Jones were active. The yardage total for the games with both players active seems in line with Gurley’s production last season, 3.8 yards per attempt in 2019. Gurley has been a touchdown machine, ranking no worse than 9th for the category in the past three seasons, and his 2018 total of 21 actually led the league. That touchdown reliance we are going to focus real quick as well. In 2019 Gurley scored in ten games, the fantasy points average in those for full PPR was 18.09, in games he did not score, 7.76 points. If we were to go even further and remove his touchdown points, a paltry 9.7 points average, touchdowns are his lifeblood.

So now we circle back to the split with Jones, an even 10 quarters split with and without the dominating receiver. With Jones absent Gurley nearly doubles his rushing output, he also comes alive in the touchdown department, with three of the four scores coming in with Jones off the field. Atlanta’s offense has failed to move the ball vertically, eclipsing 250 passing yards only once in the two and a half games without Jones. A coaching change can spell doom as well, with defensive coordinator Raheem Morris in line to take over as interim head coach. What should be believed is that Atlanta, and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, having been previously known for their vertical attack, would refocus on that. Koetter, a coordinator who ranks no lower than third in calling pass plays in neutral games scripts in his four seasons with Atlanta.

A passing attack that has lost the lead weapon, a quarterback unable to find paydirt, and a coaching staff in flux, Gurley found success in Atlanta’s chaos. All three lead factors led to the current top 12 moniker for Gurley, which is what you, faithful reader, are to use to your advantage. The timeframe to move Gurley is fortunately not a short one as the current defense against position data from CBSsports.com designates below. As within the next month, there should still be a solid return of fantasy points from the caliber of defenses through week eight.

The recent success from weeks four and five line up with the team ranks here, as the Atlanta offense filtering through Gurley makes sense for what the opposition is allowing. What needs to be brought to attention is that second half gauntlet, with only two games out of eight that can be considered in Gurley’s favor. The average stat line the four teams ranked 15th or lower allow to opposing backfields is as follows, 20 carries for 73 yards, 3.7 YPA, and .5 rushing touchdowns. That second half gauntlet could spell doom for Gurley, especially whom we had questions about workload and explosiveness just three weeks ago. The preseason boogeyman for Gurley, his arthritic knee, has yet to flare as well, a condition that just one year ago sunk him in the minds of fantasy players. We are not one to root for injury or medical issues, but we must not forget what we have not seen happen in the last oh, 15 seconds or so.

Fantasy football is a tricky hobby, you have only so many weeks to make a call on a player, so many weeks to make your mark before it may be over for the season. What many players do, and Gurley here is an easy example, become obsessed with what’s right in front of our faces, Gurley is a top twelve running back so he must be for the whole season right? The better call is to look towards what the future can have in store, getting out ahead to what a season has planned out a week or so ahead can make a good player, a great one. Do not let the very short-lived success of Gurley stop you from the right path, good luck in your future trading away from him.

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