With the Superbowl officially in the books, it appears there is a hefty void in terms of sports betting on the calendars of many. Not so fast though! With the exit of NFL football comes the beginning of the NASCAR season, or perhaps more importantly — NASCAR DFS.
The 2021 NASCAR season kicks off on Tuesday night under the bright lights of Daytona International Speedway. The beginning of Speedweeks is always exciting! Things are going to be a bit different this year, however. The 43rd Annual Busch Clash at Daytona is a classic on the schedule. This year though, it comes with a twist!
In the 42 years previous to this years event, The Busch Clash (Or Bud Shootout for long-time fans) was held on the 2.5-mile, high-banked, tri-oval that is the super speedway. For the first time ever though, this years Clash will be partially on the super speedway itself along with on the 14-turn, 3.61 mile road course within the infield.
Due to the ongoing world-wide pandemic, changes were made by NASCAR both last year and this season. One of those many changes were the format used to determine eligible drivers for NASCAR’s first of two exhibition races this year. Previously, the field was set by former Busch pole winners from the season prior. Because there was no qualifying in 2020, NASCAR announced the new set of determining factors for setting the field:
2020 Busch Pole award winners
Past Busch Clash winners who competed full-time in 2020
DAYTONA 500 champions who competed full-time in 2020
Former DAYTONA 500 Busch Pole winners who competed full-time in 2020
Chase Elliott 9-5 Martin Truex Jr. 3-1 Denny Hamlin 8-1 Kevin Harvick 10-1 Brad Keselowski 12-1 Ryan Blaney 15-1 Kyle Busch 15-1 Joey Logano 15-1 Alex Bowman 18-1 William Byron 18-1 Kurt Busch 22-1 Matt DiBenedetto 40-1 Aric Almirola 50-1 Erik Jones 50-1 Chris Buescher 100-1 Cole Custer 100-1 Austin Dillon 100-1 Ryan Newman 100-1 Tyler Reddick 100-1 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1 Ty Dillon 150-1
Strategy
There are four categories for scoring points in NASCAR DFS: laps led, laps completed, finishing position, and place-differential. This means we have to alter our prioritization of where to find drivers based on the length of the race and the field size.
There are 21 drivers eligible for the ’21 event, and below we’ll look at some top plays, best values and who we might look to avoid in various pay tiers on Draftkings for NASCAR DFS. With the race only being 35 laps, place differential will be far more important than leading laps.
Chase Elliott is the defending champion of the 2020 NASCAR season and is also a stud on road courses. Therefor, it should come as no surprise that Elliott and the No. 9 car sit atop the pricing on Draftkings. Of the last seven races on road courses, Elliott has won five. That includes the last time the series raced here.
Worth noting, is the fact that Elliott is going to be one of two drivers in the field that competed in the Rolex 24 last weekend. Getting some extra track time on this course to get reacquainted can only be considered a plus.
Odds are he’s going to be one of the top three drivers to beat to kick the year off. Even with the highest price tag, you’ll want him in your lineups and there are plenty of values available so that you can comfortably do so. Elliott will take the green flag from the seventh starting position.
Martin Truex Jr. | Joe Gibbs Racing | $10,000
Martin Truex Jr. is entering a contract year a Joe Gibbs Racing and will certainly look to start the year the right way. Truex finished third in this event in 2020 following some poor fuel strategy and a pit road speeding penalty. Like Elliott, Truex is one of the best road course racers in the field and will likely be very chalky just like his aforementioned competitor.
Over the last eight road course races, Truex’s worst finish is 14th and has an average finish of 4.6 since 2018.
Truex is the most appealing of the highest priced drivers due to his starting position of 18th. That offers up a ton of upside. The race may only be 35 laps, but that’s more than enough time for MTJ to get to the front, picking up bonus points along the way.
Mid-Range Drivers to Target for NASCAR DFS
William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | $7,700
Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron has developed into a pretty decent road course racer over the past few seasons. While he is yet to find his way to victory lane by making both right and left turns, he did tie Elliot for the most laps led at the Charlotte Roval last season. On the Daytona road course last year, he started 13th and finished in eighth.
Byron will begin the race from the fifth starting spot, which means there aren’t a ton of bonus points available here. He is however one of the most likely guys to upset the defending champion on Tuesday night.
Kurt Busch | Chip Ganassi Racing | $7,400
The elder of the two Busch brothers is still one of the best road racers in the sport, statistically speaking. While he’s only won on a non-oval one time, at Sonoma, he has 22 top-10’s, 12 top-5’s and 270 laps lead in his 20-year NASCAR career.
During a media session recently, Busch said he plans to use the race as a test session of sorts. If you’re a NASCAR fan however, you know he’s one of the most competitive drivers in the garage — even if he’s a old man now.
With a $7,400 price tag and a starting position of 15th, Busch makes for a top play in the mid-tier of drivers.
Top Value Play
Ryan Newman | Roush-Fenway Racing | $5,600
Roush-Fenway driver Ryan Newman had a hellish crash in last years season-opening Daytona 500 that he thankfully survived. The crash was incredibly scary, and Newman somehow walked out of the hospital under his own power just a few days later. He’s been back to the track since, finishing 19th in last falls race on this very circuit.
Newman has raced well on road courses in the past.
In 40 career road course races, Newman has three top-5’s, 11 top-10’s, and 29 top-20’s. His best ever finish while making right-hand turns?
Second.
With his career winding down, it would be great to see Newman add a road course to his long career resume. What better road course than Daytona? Even in an exhibition, it would be an awesome feel-good moment.
Newman is the cheapest driver on Tuesday’s slate at $5.6k and starts 11th. There is room for potential bonus points and the possibility for a win.
Drivers to Avoid
Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | $5,700
Similar to the previously mentioned Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon also raced in the Rolex 24 at Daytona a few weeks ago. That little bit of track time is important when you consider there are no qualifying or practice sessions for Tuesday night’s race. With that in mind, his results were average at best.
That wasn’t my No. 1 take away from that event, however. Dillon over-shot a turn during one of the event’s practice sessions. His maneuver to get back on the track was called “the dumbest thing we’ve ever seen” by IMSA officials.
Here is a video if you want to see for yourself!
This was the line Austin Dillon took in practice for the Rolex 24.
For those unfamiliar or having trouble identifying where this is. The green line is the racing line with arrows indicating direction of traffic, the red line is Dillon. https://t.co/ip0BT6slAGpic.twitter.com/p94sIEnMn4
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