Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Tua Tagovailoa
QB Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
2020 Stats: 1,814 passing yards, 11 TD, 5 INT; 109 rushing yards, 3 TD
“Tank for Tua” was the buzz-phrase for the Miami Dolphins in 2019. As it turned out they didn’t even need to go all the way, as they finished 5-11 and still got Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth pick in the 2020. A hip injury at the end of his final season at Alabama was a factor, but the Dolphins got their guy in the end.
No preseason games and Ryan Fitzpatrick as a solid fallback meant Miami didn’t have to rush Tagovailoa into action. He made his debut in Week 6, ahead of a rescheduled Week 7 bye, then made his first start in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams.
Tagovailoa started nine games as a rookie, with a 6-3 record. He was also benched twice in favor of Fitzpatrick, who really should get credit for one of the wins (Week 16 against the Raiders). But let’s leave that dynamic aside and narrow back on Tagovailoa.
In the seven games he started and finished, Tagovailoa topped 290 yards or threw multiple touchdowns five times. Here’s a look at his numbers and fantasy finishes in the seven full games.
Week 8, vs. Rams: 93 passing yards, 1 TD-QB28
Week 9, at Cardinals: 248 passing yards, 2 TD; 35 rushing yards-QB17
Week 10, vs. Chargers: 169 passing yards, 2 TD; -1 rushing yard-QB15
Week 13, vs. Bengals: 296 passing yards, 1 TD; 3 rushing yards-QB20
Week 14, vs. Chiefs: 316 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 24 rushing yards, 1 TD-QB4
Week 15, vs. Patriots: 145 passing yards, 1 INT; 9 rushing yards, 2 TD-QB15
Week 17, at Bills: 361 passing yards, 1 TD, 3 INT; 28 rushing yards-QB16
From Week 13-15, a pretty important stretch of any fantasy season, Tagovailoa was QB9. When he started and finished a game, leaving aside his first start, he was a usable QB2 in fantasy. He wasn’t great, and a lot was left on the table via various circumstances. But Tagovailoa showed enough to back up the team’s faith in him amid rumors they’d trade for another quarterback this offseason.
Fitzpatrick left for Washington in free agency, and Jacoby Brissett was brought in to be Tagovailoa’s backup.
Here are the 2020 strengths and weaknesses of the Dolphins through the lens of our Total Points stat pic.twitter.com/2aOGAXAw88
— SIS Football (@football_sis) March 26, 2021
As shown above, via Sports Info Solutions, the Dolphins were well below-par at running back and wide receiver last year. They have shown no real inclination to invest heavily at running back, signing Malcolm Brown in free agency and drafting Gerrid Doaks in the seventh round. But they did invest at wide receiver, and a little less so in the offensive line.
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After signing Will Fuller in free agency, the Dolphins uses the sixth overall pick on Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Waddle of course has history with Tagovailoa from their college days, which surely informed the pick. The two new guys will join DeVante Parker and a hopefully healty Preston Williams to form a solid set of wide receivers.
Mike Gesicki is a fine tight end, as much as he fits that traditional label, and Miami drafted Hunter Long to add depth.
The Dolphins signed center Matt Skura in free agency. Rookie second-round pick Liam Eichenberg is slated to step in immediately at right tackle, kicking Robert Hunt in to right guard to fortify that spot. 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson should improve at left tackle. Overall, Miami’s offensive line should be better this year.
If Tagovailoa falls short this year, the Dolphins will be left to re-assess their quarterback future looking to 2022. For this year, fantasy owners can see passing accuracy, a bolstered supporting cast and a bit of running ability as reasons for optimism. As much as there’s flaw in strength of schedule as a viable tool at this stage, Fantasy Pros has given Tagovailoa a top-half of the league most-favorable schedule among quarterbacks for 2021.
In Fantasy Football Calculator’s early 12-team ADP, Tagovailoa is in QB2 range. Rankings at this point have him in that area too. With top-12 upside, there’s significant value in that ADP if it stays there come July and August. In all honesty, Tagovailoa’s ADP should not climb.
Tabbing a top-10 or top-12 finish among quarterbacks as the breakout criteria, that’s the ceiling for Tagovailoa. I can’t quite get there, but he’ll be worth drafting as a QB2 leagues where that’s viable. At minimum, he will be on the streaming radar when the right matchups come.
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Projection: 3,855 passing yards, 25 TD, 12 INT; 225 rushing yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 45%
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