2021 Prospect Success Indicator Post-Draft Report

Welcome to the 2021 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Post-Draft Report.

If you missed the Pre-Draft Report, want to learn more about what goes into Prospect Success Indicator model and/or see the entire 2010-2021 Prospect Success Indicator Database follow the links below

• 2021 PSI Pre-Draft Report
• 2010-2021 Prospect Success Indicator Database
• Prospect Success Indicator: Official Database and Calculations

What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match the profile of a Top 24 wide receiver.

PSI Hit Rates by Tier

• The first table shows you the total amount of wide receiver prospects to go on to have at least (1) Top 24 season by tier
• The second table shows you the total amount of Top 24 seasons those wide receivers delivered by tier
  • Ex: In Tier 1 – 90th percentile – 31 wide receivers (50.8%) have hit and have to-date provided 100 Top 24 Seasons (61.7%).

Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary

• PSI Rank: is the percent to which a prospects profile mirrors that of a Top 24 profile.
• FAQ: Does 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
  • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football.
• Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by My Fantasy League rookie draft data (PPR, SF, 12 team, Post NFL Draft)
• Injury Risk Rating: Injury data is brought to you by Ethan Turner (Follow on Twitter @ETurnerFF_PT) and his 2021 Rookie Injury Guide which is available for purchase for $20. If you want the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis on all positions consider supporting Ethan. Go buy it!
• Player Comp: are the prospect to prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and age-adjusted college production. Sometimes good prospect profiles don’t pan out, doesn’t make it a lousy comp, or suggest this new player will follow the same career path.
• Post-Draft: view the rankings as – “Now that we have draft capital, who is over and undervalued in rookie drafts?”

Below are the post-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2020 class.

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Tier 3 – 70^th Percentile – ~10% Tier Hit Rate

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Seth Williams – Denver Broncos – 6th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 75.2%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.75- Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 5.04

Overview: I am shooketh. No prospect saw their PSI ranking fall more from the Pre-Draft Rankings than Seth Williams. I knew he wasn’t a great separator but then heard rumors of him being a potential headcase. Whatever the real reason is the NFL did not value Seth Williams despite the impressive early production and overall profile. The Broncos took Seth Williams and honestly it’s a great pick. He profiles similarly to Courtland Sutton and if for some reason Sutton doesn’t come back to his pre-injury form then Seth Williams provides an insurance policy for both the Broncos and Sutton Dynasty owners. That’s how you play this one.

• Player Comp: Bryan Edwards

Jaelon Darden – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 75.8%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 5.06

Overview: Darden is one PSI like way more than I do. Now while he landed on the Super Bowl Champions it’s not a great landing spot. Darden starts off his career behind Evans, Godwin, Brown, Miller, Johnson and maybe even Watson. Even without Watson, it is hard to see how he makes an impact early in his career. I believe Darden was drafted to be a Miller replacement down the line as TB cannot afford to sign all 3 WR’s to long-term deals. They have too many guys to take care of to waste more cap space on Miller. However, Miller is not going anywhere any time soon and that means Darden is waiver wire fodder for the foreseeable future. Only draft him if you have a taxi spot to spare otherwise I wouldn’t touch him.

• Player Comp: Mario Alford

Ihmir Smith-Marsette – Minnesota Vikings – 5th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 76.1%
• Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 5.10

Overview: Ihmir Smith-Marsette enters a prime depth chart. Not only have the Vikings been lacking depth at the position for years now but Adam Thielen isn’t getting any younger, he’ll be 31 by Week 1. Smith-Marsette enters a low-key great landing spot where he can get some snaps and wait his turn and if Thielen begins to show his age or get hurt enters a starting lineup capable of supporting two wide receivers as the Vikings still do not have a tight end of consequence. Ihmir needs to hit the ground running though, his only competition for the third wide receiver position is Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson. If he clears the first hurdle then it will begin to look like wheels up for Smith-Marsette, but I’ll start to have serious doubts if he can’t beat those two JAG’s out in camp.

• Player Comp: Dante Pettis

Devonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 79.0%
• Injury Risk Rating: 2.5 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.09

Overview: DeVonta Smith was one many of you asked about in the Pre-Draft Rankings as he was a glaring omission. Part of that was due to his intense dislike to anything resembling a ruler or measurement device. But the other part was simply due to his profile not being the greatest despite just having won the Heisman. Smith finally broke out in his age 20 year and his Senior year of college, not really what you want to see. But he did so in spectacular fashion that resulted in the aforementioned Heisman award. In addition, his frame. Smith is rail-thin, checking at six foot one hundred sixty-six pounds. Not exactly what you think of when you think of an NFL alpha wide receiver. Smith lands in an interesting spot alongside last year’s PSI favorite Jalen Reagor and Jalen Hurts. This trio has the potential to take the league by storm. Smith is a solid pick in the middle 1st round of dynasty rookie drafts.

• Player Comp: Paul Richardson

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Tier 2 – 80^th Percentile – ~25% Tier Hit Rate

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Nico Collins – Houston Texans – 3rd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 83.2%
• Injury Risk Rating: 4 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 3.03

Overview: A Few months ago we would’ve raved about this landing spot and likely would’ve labeled him the next Michael Gallup but unfortunately a lot has changed in Houston this off-season and uncertainty is probably the word of the year for the Houston Texans. As for Nico Collins he walks into a wide receiver room devoid of talent aside from Brandin Cooks, they have no tight end of consequence and no running back either. If Watson plays Nico Collins should provide instant ROI, if he doesn’t though this team is headed to purgatory real quick and I’m not sure how much value there will be with Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills throwing the ball. In addition, his injury history is one of the most concerning of the group.

• Player Comp: Equanimeous St. Brown

Tylan Wallace – Baltimore Ravens – 4th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 86.3%
• Injury Risk Rating: 6.5 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 3.09

Overview: Tylan Wallace is a story of what could’ve been. Had he not torn his ACL his junior year he would’ve entered the NFL draft and been a mid-late 1st round pick. Unfortunately, he did and he was unable to declare as a result. Now Wallace is entering the NFL coming off yet another productive year at Oklahoma State University, in his career he posted a dominator rating of 47% and broke out at age 19. Both Player Profiler and I happened to comp him to two wide receivers who happen to share one very important thread – career injuries. PP comped Wallace to Mario Manningham and if you remember Manningham he was a very productive receiver for a short period of time before his knees gave out. I comped him to Randall Cobb who also was very good for a short period of time before his own injuries sapped him of a more productive career. All this to say that while I really like Wallace as a talent, and believe he will be productive to start his career, do not be surprised if he follows suit and is soon listed on the injury report more than the starting lineup.

• Player Comp: Randall Cobb

Dyami Brown – Washington Football Team – 3rd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 88.6%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 3.01

Overview: Dyami Brown lands in a great spot and up-and-coming franchise led by Ron Rivera. Brown has the luxury of coming in and playing alongside both Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gandy-Golden. That trio may not sound scary on paper but it’s the perfect blend of size, speed, and talent that all compliments one another. Brown did not test as fast as we had hoped given his tape but 4.45 speed is still plenty fast to blow by a lot of cornerbacks in the NFL. Brown’s impressive 20.1 YPR is exceptional and paired with a DGAF QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick should have an opportunity to make some splash plays. He likely won’t be a consistent producer in year one given his quarterback situation but the hope is he shines enough to hold value entering year two – think Darnell Mooney – when the Washington Football Team will likely be in a prime spot to select their next franchise quarterback.

• Player Comp: Nelson Agholor

Rondale Moore – Arizona Cardinals – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 89.2%
• Injury Risk Rating: 4.5 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.04

Overview: Will the real Rondale Moore, please stand -up. It wasn’t that long ago when Rondale Moore was being touted at the Devy WR1, and for good reason Rondale Moore broke out as a true freshman at age 18 to the tune of 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns. Everything you wanted in devy prospect and future stud wide receiver was there, and then a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. In his sophomore season, Rondale Moore only played in 4 games. Moore hyperextended his left knee against Minnesota and missed the final 8 games of the season.

Then the following season, Moore missed the first 3 games due to an undisclosed lower-body injury (same one as before?) and only played in the final 3 games finishing the year with a paltry 7.7 yards-per-reception. Rondale Moore was the #1 wideout at Purdue his freshman year but due to his injuries he never regained the top spot and in fact, never finished above #3 in total receiving yards in any other year. While Rondale Moore had a fantastic freshman year, all he has done since is miss 70% of games, measure in shorter (5-7) than all analysts were predicting, and look inefficient when on the field (7.7 YPR). Moore profiles like a Deebo Samuel-Esque receiver at the next level and in order to survive he will need to be able to take shots from NFL linebackers and lineman. Given Moore’s injury history that’s a dangerous proposition and a risky bet. As a result, Moore has the most Boom-Bust potential of any prospect in this year’s class.

• Player Comp: Unicorn

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Tier 1 – 90^th Percentile – ~51% Tier Hit Rate

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Terrace Marshall Jr. – Carolina Panthers – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 90.4%
• Injury Risk Rating: 5.5 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.05

Overview: LSU has produced the two of the best wide receiver prospects we’ve seen in a long time in Justin Jefferson and now Ja’Marr Chase. It was also not too long ago when teammates Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry came from LSU too, could Terrace Marshall also be on that level with his fellow alumni? Maybe. There’s a lot to like about Marshall. He broke out this past season at age 20.4, complied 33.4% College Dominator Rating and is entering the NFL in his age 21 season. He looks the part standing 6-2, 205 pounds with 9 1/2 inch hands. He tested well with a 4.40 40-yard dash at his Pro Day to go along with an 85th-percentile Speed Score and Burst Score. Finally, he got the requisite draft capital being drafted in the second round of the NFL draft by the Carolina Panthers where he will reunite with his offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Despite all that, there’s one glaring red flag and that’s his injury history. Terrace Marshall checks in with the 3rd highest injury risk rating of the class with 5.5, He fractured both his tibia and fibula in separate injuries’ in high school, then in college had a stress fracture in his foot that caused him to miss the final few games of the season. Like his fellow alumni, there’s no doubt that when he’s on the field he’s electric, but unlike his fellow alumni, the question is can he stay healthy? That’s a lot of lower-body injuries to happen before age 21.

• Player Comp: Denzel Mims

Rashod Bateman – Baltimore Ravens – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 92.4%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.12

Overview: Rashod Bateman looked like a sure-fire tier 1 prospect the 1b to Ja’Marr Chase’s 1a for most of the run-up to the draft, and then his pro day happened. Rashod Bateman checked in significantly shorter and smaller than Minnesota had been labeling him as for years. While the size concerns are not a death knell it does provide for less successful comps compared to where he was before and thus I had to move him down from my personal tier 1 rankings. All that being said Bateman has the ceiling of Stefon Diggs and in this class that is good enough to be in the argument for WR2 in this class. I know many are concerned about the landing spot but if there’s anything we can count on in the NFL and life is that change is constant and I would expect for Baltimore to eventually see some change to the passing game that will allow Bateman to be unlocked. The cream always rises to the top.

• Player Comp: Stefon Diggs

Elijah Moore – New York Jets – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 95.7%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.5 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.02

Overview: You want a big-bodied outside wide receiver? Well, then this class isn’t for you. But let me offer up another potential alpha receiver albeit in a 5-9 178 pound body. Elijah Moore played his college career at Ole’Miss, playing alongside recent NFL success stories in DK Metcalf and AJ Brown. Elijah Moore broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore catching 67 passes for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns. He posted a career dominator rating of 41.9% and ran a blistering 4.35 40-yard-dash at his pro-day to along with a 10.67 agility score – 98th percentile. While Elijah Moore may not wow you with size he makes up for it with a solid age adjust college production profile and elite-level athleticism. If we’re drafting Devonta Smith with confidence who weighs 170 pounds then Moore should feel like an upgrade.

• Player Comp: Christian Kirk

Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 100%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.75 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.03

Overview: No such thing as a “sure thing”, but Ja’Marr Chase is as close as it could possibly get with any prospect. He’s the first 100% PSI prospect I’ve ever recorded, just beating out Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and DJ Moore for the top spot, Nothing else needs to be said other than congrats if you’re able to draft him. Ja’Marr Chase should be every bit the bonafide alpha wide receiver for years to come.

• Player Comp: Odell Beckham Jr.

Thank you for reading!

Notable Omissions

Jaylen Waddle – Tier 8 – PSI Rank: 25.5%

Kadarius Toney – Tier 6 – PSI Rank: 49.6%

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