2021 Player Outlook: Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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WR Adam Thielen (MN)
2020 PPR Ranking: WR10
Offseason Changes
- Klint Kubiak, new offensive coordinator
- TE Kyle Rudolph signed with Giants
Projected Stats: 80-85 receptions, 1,050-1,100 yards, 11 touchdowns
2021 PPR Projected Ranking: WR15
Overall Outlook
While rookie Justin Jefferson was taking the league by storm last year, when some had little faith it would happen going into the season, Adam Thielen fairly quietly had a nice rebound season (74 receptions for 925 yards and 14 touchdowns). That yielded a WR10 finish in full PPR. He was WR8 in half-PPR and WR7 in standard scoring.
In essentially nine games in 2019, Thielen had six touchdowns. In 2018, he scored nine times. So he’s got a track record as a trusted red zone target for Kirk Cousins, and the departure of Kyle Rudolph in free agency leaves behind more looks in that area of the field. Irv Smith Jr. will take a greater target share overall as the Vikings’ new No. 1 tight end. But he won’t take all of what Rudolph has left, and the Vikings’ don’t have a proven No. 3 wide receiver (barring a late free agent signing).
The Vikings are a low-volume passing attack…that yielded two top-10 fantasy wide receivers in 2020. According to Player Profiler, Thielen had 100 percent route participation with a 96.7 percent snap share in the 15 games he played. Overall he had a 24.4 percent target share and a 36.4 target share in the red zone (20 red zone targets; third-most in the league).
It’s still only late June. But Thielen’s ADP (Fantasy Football Calculator) and ranking (Fantasy Pros) are in the back end of WR2 range right now. He’s a mortal lock for over 100 targets, with a very good chance at double-digit touchdowns, so his current ADP looks like the floor.
Expect some touchdown regression from Thielen this year. He won’t score 14 times again. The gap between ceiling and floor is not wide for him, straddling the low-end WR1/high-end WR2 line on the high end and settling at low-end WR2 on the low end. But there’s comfort in predictability for fantasy managers. As long as he’s healthy, Thielen is a model of it.
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