NFL DFS Value Plays-Week One

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Heading into week one of the NFL season, I would like to clarify the scope of this article. In addition, I will outline a couple of key statistics that I use to identify “value plays”. Each week, I will delve into the “main slate” of games to identify lower-cost alternatives at each of the four skill positions(QBs/RBs/WRs/TEs).

Tools to Identify Value Plays

With a maximum salary cap of only $50k, the DFS player always has to find 3-4 value plays to allow themselves the opportunity to select a handful of top-flight players. I use two very important variables when making all lineup decisions: 1) implied totals for each team; and 2) the number of fantasy points given up by each defense to the four skill positions previously mentioned.

Although implied totals are fairly easy to use, the concept is one that may not be familiar to all DFS players. In order to obtain implied totals for each team, one has to access the Vegas spread and over/under. As an example, the Chiefs are currently six-point favorites against the Browns and the over/under is 53.5. Rounding up to 54 for the over/under, the Chiefs implied total would be 30 and the Browns 24(thus the six-point spread).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

The second piece of data that is really valuable is the number of DraftKings fantasy points that each defense gives up to each of the four skill positions. I use this information for most of my lineup decisions, but for value plays it is even more important. Top tier players tend to perform well regardless of the opponent, while lesser tier players can exploit certain matchups more than others.

Typically, I look at tight ends and defenses to clear space for my upper echelon players(with RBs and WRs prices being higher across the board). For week one, the prices were set in mid to late July and not altered. Many rookies were set up at bottom basement prices, with wide receivers starting at $3k and running back prices starting at $4k.

Quarterbacks:

Mac Jones(Patriots) $4400 vs Dolphins in full discretion, it is practically impossible to gauge the ceiling for Jones in week one. The one thing that fantasy players can be certain of is that it is exceedingly rare to be able to use a starting quarterback at this low of a salary. For quarterbacks, I try to get three times value and 13.2 fantasy points or more seems to certainly be within the realm of possibility. By using Jones, you can select an additional top-tier player for your squad.

Matt Ryan(Falcons) $6k vs Eagles although the prevailing thought over the past few years has been that Ryan can not succeed without Julio Jones, I am willing to test that theory in the first game without Jones on the team. The Falcons implied total is 26 and the Eagles gave up an average of 20.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2020(16th in the NFL)

Running Backs:

Javonte Williams(Broncos) $4k @ Giants Williams is one of those rookie bargains that I mentioned earlier in the article. It will be very interesting to see how the snap share is split between Melvin Gordon III and Williams, but I am willing to roll the dice at this price tag. The Broncos’ implied total is 22 and the Giants gave up the 11th most fantasy points to running backs in 2020.

Chase Edmonds(Cardinals) 4600 @ Titans as the 36th highest priced running back. Edmonds has the opportunity to far exceed those expectations. Just like Williams, it will be interesting to watch the touch battle between Edmonds and James Conner develop. The Cardinals’ implied total is 24 and the Titans gave up the 7th most fantasy points to RBs in 2020.

Wide Receivers:

Terrace Marshall, JR (Panthers) $3k vs Jets as mentioned earlier in the article, there are several rookie WRs at the $3k threshold and Marshall is just one of them. A couple of other personal favorites are Rondale Moore( Cardinals @ Titans) and Elijah Moore( Jets @ Panthers). The Panthers’ implied total is 24 and the Jets gave up the 13th most fantasy points to WRs in 2020.

Devonta Smith(Eagles) $4500 @ Falcons as previously discussed, this matchup with the Eagles has an opportunity to be a sneaky opportunity for a high-scoring game. The implied total for the Eagles is 22 and the Falcons gave up the most fantasy points to WRs in 2020.

Tight Ends:

The Offseason Game Plan (#FantasyFootball)

Zach Ertz(Eagles) $3800 @ Falcons expected to be on a different team quite some time ago, Ertz finds himself still playing for the Eagles in one of my favorite games to target. Just like WRs, the Falcons didn’t fare much better against tight ends(finishing third).

Logan Thomas(Washington Football Team) $4600 vs Chargers a breakout tight end in 2020, Thomas looks to build on that performance. The implied total for Washington is only 21, but the Chargers did give up the 12th most fantasy points to TEs.

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