NFL DFS Value Plays-Week 2
As was discussed in the week one article, there are two vital components in making most of my DFS lineup decisions. These two pieces of data are: 1) implied totals for each team: and 2) the number of DraftKings fantasy points that a defense allows to the four skill positions(QBs/RBs/WRs and TEs). For a more in-depth description of these concepts, please check out the link below.
Return To DFS Normalcy
As was discussed in the week one article, my typical search for value plays begins with DSTs, TEs and the flex position. Many of the rookies that performed well in week one, saw slight bumps to their bottom basement price tags. Unfortunately, even the most modest cost adjustments can result in a lineup alteration. One of the many things that DraftKings does well is to continuously challenge its players and encourage them to use a wide variety of tactics to create their lineups. Week two is no exception.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger(Steelers) $5900 vs Raiders trailing the Bills 10-0 in week one with only 64 net yards of offense, the Steelers made a very impressive come back in the second half to win 23-16. The offense came to life and put up 199 yards after the break, and was aided by a block punt return for a touchdown.
Although Big Ben’s overall statistics(18/32 for 188 yards and a TD) were pedestrian, he spearheaded the second half rally. In week two, the Steelers face a Raiders’s defense that gave up the 7th most fantasy points to QBs in 2020. With the Steelers’s implied total sitting at 26.5 points, I will take a stand that the talented offense will continue to find its footing.
Teddy Bridgewater (Broncos) $5400 @ Jaguars after beating out Drew Lock in the preseason, Bridgewater turned in a very solid performance in the Broncos’s 27-13 week one win over the Giants. Bridgewater completed 28 of 36 pass attempts for two touchdowns, while adding three rush attempts for 19 yards.
Despite Jerry Jeudy’s injury(high ankle sprain-IR), the Broncos have enough depth at the position to generate good numbers for Bridgewater. KJ Hamler( three catches for 41 yards in week one) and Tim Patrick (four receptions for 39 yards and a TD) will be asked to pick up the slack. The Jags gave up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs in 2020, while the Broncos’s implied total is 25.5.
Running Backs:
Elijah Mitchell(49ers) $5k/ Trey Sermon $4600 @ Eagles with Raheem Mostert(knee surgery) now out for the season, Mitchell will be the 49ers’s week two starter. After Mostert left the game in week one, Mitchell had 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown in his stead.
Fellow rookie running back Sermon was a healthy scratch in last week’s game, since he does not have a role on special teams. On Friday, it was announced that he will be active for the game and has run very inspired throughout this week’s practices. In 2019, the 49ERs were second in the NFL with 498 rush attempts(31.1 attempts per game). Although the matchup isn’t ideal(the Eagles gave up the 11th fewest fantasy points in 2020), the trio of Mitchell, Sermon and Jamycal Hasty should have an opportunity to succeed in this one.
Embed from Getty ImagesChase Edmonds(Cardinals) $4900 vs Vikings Edmonds has displayed a significant amount of upside in his first three seasons in the league, but sheer volume has always been in question. In week one’s 38-13 win over the Titans, Edmonds had 12 carries for 63 yards and added four catches for 43 more yards.
Although James Conner had 16 carries last week, Edmonds’s 16 touches were an encouraging sign(as he only averaged 10.25 touches per game in 2020). The Vikings gave up the sixth most fantasy points to RBs in 2020, while the Cardinals have an implied total of 27.5. The opportunity for a high ceiling game is there for Edmonds this week.
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Wide Receivers:
Jalen Reagor(Eagles) $4100 vs 49ers in week one’s 32-6 win over the Falcons, Reagor had six catches(on six targets) for 49 yards and a touchdown. The six catches exceeded his single game high in 2020.
Despite a relatively tough matchup against the 49ers(16th most fantasy points given up to WRs), I am willing to take a chance on Reagor in what is expected to be a high scoring affair.
Rondale Moore(Cardinals) $4k vs Vikings Moore opened his rookie campaign with four catches(on five targets) for 68 yards at the Titans. Although not listed as a stater on the depth chart, both Moore and Christian Kirk outperformed A.J. Green in week one and should continue to do so. The Vikings also gave up the sixth most fantasy points to WRs last year.
Tight Ends:
Noah Fant(Broncos) $4200 @ Jaguars as mentioned earlier, Bridgewater will be looking for ways to ease the loss of Jeudy. Fant proved in week one( six catches for 62 yards) that he will be one of the better options in the passing game. The Jags gave up the 8th most fantasy points to TEs.
Cole Kmet(Bears) $3700 vs Bengals in week one at the Rams, Kmet secured five catches(on seven targets) for 42 yards. Despite only nominal stats, Kmet looked very fluid and dynamic on the field. The Bengals gave up the 6th most fantasy points to TEs last year, while the Bears have an implied total of 24.5.
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