Week 4 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out

When writing an article such as this, I am looking at the long-term prognosis of whether or not a player can provide consistent enough production to be an integral part of one’s weekly lineup. In week two, I identified Mike Williams, Ty’son Williams, and Elijah Mitchell as breakouts. In contrast, Jared Goff, Mark Ingram, and Zach Pascal were listed as fake-outs. Before listing this week’s players, I am going to add these players to week three’s suggestions and see where we currently stand on these players moving forward.

in week three, my suggestions for breakouts were: 1) Rondale Moore(2 catches for one yard); (2) Sterling Shepard(2 catches for 16 yards); and 3) Teddy Bridgewater(19-25 for 235 yards and zero touchdowns). The fake-out suggestions were: 1) Zack Moss(13 rushes for 60 yards/3 catches for 31 yards and a TD); 2) A.J. Green(5 catches for 112 yards), and 3) Darius Slayton(1 catch for eight yards). As one can tell, the analysis( from a week three only perspective) was abysmal. The more important question is whether or not this alters my perspective moving forward.

Long Term Outlook:

https://fftoday.com/rankings/rotw.php

One of my favorite sites for “rest of the way” rankings is FFToday. Com. Through the first three weeks of the season, my best suggestion has been Mike Williams. On the season, Williams now has 22 catches(on 31 targets) for 295 yards and four touchdowns. Currently, Williams is listed as the WR19 rest of the season. In his four previous seasons in the league, Williams’ high for targets was only 90. As long as he continues to be involved in the short to medium passing game Williams will have the opportunity to reach his ceiling.

The second player worth monitoring is Bridgewater. In Sunday’s 26-0 win over the Jets, Bridgewater was not needed to win the game(attempting only 25 passes). For the season, however, Teddy B has completed 73 of 95 passes(76.8 percent) for 827 yards and four touchdowns. The Broncos have outscored their opponents 76-26 through three games but will face the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders over the next three. Bridgewater should have a higher passing volume moving forward, and time will tell how he does. He is currently the QB20 ROS, but I view him more as a top 15 option.

The Cardinals’ target tree is also very intriguing. In week three, Green had six targets compared to Moore’s two. Through three games, Green has 18 targets, Christian Kirk 17, and Moore 15. Green is currently the WR55 and Moore the WR59. With Kyler Murray averaging 34 pass attempts and 335 passing yards per game, there will be opportunities for both to succeed. As the season progresses, I slightly prefer the rookie over the grizzled veteran.

The Bills’ backfield committee of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary is worth closely monitoring as well. After missing week one, Moss played in 28 percent of the snaps(compared to Singletary’s 66 percent) in week two. In week three’s 43-21 rout of Washington, Moss played in 56 percent of the snaps(compared to Singletary’s 43 percent). Moss also led in touches 16-13. Was this a changing of the rotation or have more to do with the score? Singletary is currently the RB27 ROS, while Moss is the RB43.

Elijah Mitchell and Ty’son Williams are also both in extremely murky running back tandems. Mitchell sat out week three’s game with a shoulder injury(but returned to a limited practice on Wednesday), while Trey Sermon led the 49ers in rushing with ten carries for 31 yards and a touchdown. Williams only had five carries for 22 yards and zero catches against the Lions, but no one else took control of the backfield. Latavius Murray had 7 carries for 28 yards, while Devonta Freeman had three carries for eight yards. Williams is currently the RB23 ROS, while Mitchell is the RB26. Both should be viewed as low-end RB2’s moving forward.

With both Shepard and Slayton leaving week three’s game early with an injury and missing Wednesday’s practice, they are in jeopardy of missing week four’s game. Shepard is the WR35 and has staying power as a WR2/WR3. Meanwhile, Slayton is the WR71 and should be viewed as nothing more than a bench stash in the deepest of leagues. The trio of Goff, Ingram, and Pascal are the QB18/RB41/WR66 respectively. None of these players will offer consistent production throughout the season.

Break Outs:

Embed from Getty Images

Sam Darnold(QB-Panthers) the formerly much-maligned quarterback of the Jets, Darnold has quietly put up a very solid season for the undefeated Panthers. On the year, Darnold has completed 73 of 107 passes( 68.2 percent) for 888 yards(296 yards per game) and three touchdowns. With star running back Christian McCaffrey injuring his hamstring in week three and currently not having a firm timetable to return, more of the onus will be shifted to Darnold and the passing game.

The Panthers travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys’ high-flying offense in week four. To remain competitive, Darnold will need to throw more than the one touchdown pass per game that he has averaged through the first three games. I view him as one of the best streaming quarterback options available this week, with a possible upside of a low-end QB1.

The Only Waiver Article You Need for Week 4

Tim Patrick(Broncos-WR) after the news broke on Monday that fellow WR K.J. Hamler had been placed on season-ending IR with a knee injury, Patrick’s role as a fixture in this year’s offense was cemented. On the season, Patrick has registered 12 catches(on 13 targets) for 174 yards and two touchdowns.

With Jerry Jeudy still recovering from a high ankle sprain. Patrick will serve as the WR2 in week four(opposite Courtland Sutton). Facing a high-scoring Ravens’ offense, it is very likely that Bridgewater will need to throw more than 30 passes. Look for Patrick to be at least a WR3 this week, with upside for more.

Fake Outs:

Peyton Barber(RB-Raiders) after signing with the Raiders leading up to week two, Barber has been extremely involved in the offense. He has rushed 36 times for 143 yards and one touchdown in two games. He also hauled in three catches for 31 yards in week three, replacing the injured Josh Jacobs(ankle). Although many fantasy pundits assumed that Kenyan Drake would be the lead back in Jacobs’s stead, he has only had 15 carries over the two-game stretch.

My recommendation as a “fake out” is mostly because Jacobs should be returning to the team very soon, possibly as early as week four. Head Coach Jon Gruden is “hopeful” that Jacobs returns to practice this week. With a Monday night game against the Chargers, Jacobs will have an additional day to get ready. Although Barber has performed well, he will likely be the odd man out upon Jacobs’s return.

DeSean Jackson(WR-Rams) in week three, Jackson had three catches(on five targets) for 125 yards and a touchdown. This production included a 75-yard touchdown reception and came on the heels of only playing 17 total offensive snaps through the first two games. He also had another 40-yard pass reception during the game.

Although Jackson flashed the ability to be a field stretcher, there are simply too many mouths(Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson/ Tyler Higbee) to feed for Jackson to get consistent targets. He is best viewed as a potential low volume/high return bye week or injury replacement.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.