NFL DFS VALUE PLAYS-Week Four

As we head into week four, I have changed the reference point for the number of DraftKings points that each defense allows from 2020 stats to 2021. I will still be using each of the four skill positions(QB/RB/WR/TE) to identify the variances from one defense to the next and, in turn, identify the majority of my value plays. As compared to last week’s 13, there are only 11 teams from the “main slate” that have implied totals of 25 or more. I am attaching the link for the 2021 fantasy points against below.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/fantasy-points-against-QB.htm

Week Three Results:

As it turned out, week three was one of those weeks in which I suggested several lesser priced players that had enough marginal value to help their DFS owners build elsewhere. Unfortunately, none of these players had a massive return. At QB, I suggested Daniel Jones(24-35 for 266 passing yards and eight carries for 39 yards), and Teddy Bridgewater(19-25 for 235 yards and zero touchdowns).

My other week three suggestions were: 1) RBs Myles Gaskin(13 carries for 65 yards and three catches for nine yards) and Javonte Williams(12 rushes for 29 yards with a TD and 3 catches for 33 yards); 2) WRs Rondale Moore(2 catches for negative one yard) and Darnell Mooney(1 catch for 9 yards); and 3) TEs Tyler Higbee( 5 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown) and Jared Cook(2 catches for 27 yards).

Quarterbacks:

Sam Darnold(Panthers) 6k @ Cowboys although the Panthers have not heavily relied on Darnold in getting off to a perfect 3-0 start, he has quietly produced a solid stat line. He has completed 73 of 107 pass attempts(68.2 percent) for 888 yards and three touchdowns. He also has added three rushing touchdowns, providing a solid floor.

In week four, Darnold travels to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys have given up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs, and the implied total for the Panthers is 23. With star running back Christian McCaffrey(hamstring) sidelined for this game, look for Darnold to shoulder even more of the responsibility. The ceiling for Darnold seems to be as a low end QB1 this week.

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Matt Ryan(Falcons) $5400 vs Washington on the season, Ryan has completed 83 of 117 pass attempts(71 percent) for 707 yards and four touchdowns. Although his yards per game has fallen from 286 to 235, I am willing to take a shot with him at this price tag.

Washington has really struggled with trying to defend the pass, and has given up the most fantasy points to QBs. With an implied total of 23, Ryan should have a solid game. If he is able to score over 16 points, he will triple his value and allow DFS players to pay up elsewhere.

Running Backs:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire(Chiefs) $5400 @ Eagles saddled with a price tag of $4900 last week, CEH proved his doubters wrong one week after he fumbled to “lose the game” to the Ravens. In week three against the Chargers, Edwards-Helaire had 17 carries for 100 yards. He also added two catches for nine yards and a touchdown.

In week four, the Chiefs travel to take on the Eagles. The Eagles give up the 11th most fantasy points, and the implied total is 31. CEH has an opportunity to be a top 15 running back this week, and it is rare to find this combination of value and price tag.

Week 4 Fantasy Football: Breakout or Fake Out

Trey Sermon($5k/Eli Mitchell($5400) 49ers vs Seahawks at the time of writing this article(late Thursday afternoon), Mitchell is currently listed as questionable. He missed last week’s game and, in his stead, Sermon had ten carries for 31 yards and a a touchdown. He also added two catches for three yards, allowing him to accumulate 11.4 PPR fantasy points.

In week four, the 49ers host a Seahawks team that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. With a juicy matchup and an implied total of 27, at least one 49er running back should do well. With a late start, be sure to monitor game day scratches.

Wide Receivers:

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Odell Beckham, JR(Browns) $5800 @ Vikings after missing the first two games of the season(knee), Beckham caught five passes(on nine targets) for 77 yards in week three. Beckham also played 52 snaps, just one shy of wide receiver leader Donovan Peoples-Jones.

The Browns play at the Vikings in week four. On the season, the Vikings allow the fourth most fantasy points and the implied total is 27. With an exploitable matchup and a return to health, look for Beckham to finish as a top 20 wide receiver this week.

Robert Woods(Rams) $5300 vs Cardinals although I was a week early on Woods last week, eventually there will be a regression to the mean. On the season, Woods has 11 catches(on 19 targets) for 124 yards and one touchdown. In week three, he had only three catches for 33 yards.

One obstacle for Woods is that his targets per game has fallen from eight in 2020 to just six through the first three games of 2021. In a game that should be very high scoring and competitive, the Rams implied total is 29. At the $5300 price tag, I am willing to gamble on Woods’ talent over current production.

Tight Ends:

Noah Fant(Broncos) $4300 vs Ravens on the season, Fant has 12 catches(on 17 targets) for 110 yards and one touchdown. With Teddy Bridgewater only attempting 25 passes in week three’s 26-0 win over the Jets, Fant had an extremely quiet day with only two catches for 15 yards.

Fant faces a Ravens’ defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Unlike the Jets, the Ravens can actually score points and come into the game as one point underdogs. Look for Fant to be a top ten tight end this week.

Pat Friermuth(Steelers) $3100 @ Packers in what would be considered a long shot play, I am selecting Friermuth as a low risk/medium reward option. Over the last two games, Friermuth has seven catches(on nine targets) for 58 yards and one touchdown

Although Ben Roethlisberger has not played well, he has thrown 98 passes over the last two weeks with a yards per attempt of only 5.6. In addition, the Packers allow the third most fantasy points to TEs. Even though this may wind up being a shot in the dark, Friermuth allows more cap flexibility than similar options

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