NFL DFS Value Plays-Week Five
As we head into week five of the NFL season, DFS players need to remember that the first London game is this coming Sunday morning. The Falcons will be facing the Jets, so this will eliminate two more teams from the “main slate”. Although this game is not littered with traditional DFS lineup mainstays, the rest of the “prime time” slate is.
On Thursday Night, the Rams travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. On Sunday Night, the Bills and Chiefs tussle, while the Colts and Ravens face one another on Monday Night. As one can tell, there are so many top 15 players that will be unavailable to choose from as part of the main slate.
This includes the following: 1) 5 of the top 11 projected quarterbacks this week(Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes/Lamar Jackson/Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson): 2) five of the top 13 wide receivers( Cooper Kupp/ Tyreke Hill/ Stefon Diggs/ D.K Metcalf/ and Tyler Lockett); and five of the top eleven tight ends(Travis Kelce/ Mark Andrews/ Kyle Pitts/ Dawson Knox/ and Tyler Higbee). With this much talent missing from the main slate, value plays are even more important.
Week Four Review:
As it turned out, the week four value plays were, for the most part, spot on. In terms of quarterbacks, my suggestions were: 1) Sam Darnold(26 of 39 for 301 yards and four total touchdowns); and 2) Matt Ryan( 25 of 42 for 283 yards and four touchdowns). These stats allowed both QBs to finish amongst the top 7 week four QBs.
Along with my quarterbacks, many of my other selections flourished as well. These players included: 1) Clyde Edwards-Helaire( 16 total touches for 114 yards and a touchdown-17.4 PPR fantasy points) ; 2) Trey Sermon( 19 carries for 89 yards): 3) Robert Woods(4 catches for 48 yards and a TD-14.8 fantasy points); and 4) Noah Fant( 6 catches for 46 yards and a TD-16.6 fantasy points). My only two underachievers were Odell Beckham(2 catches for 14 yards) and Pat Friermuth(1 catch for 11 yards).
Quarterbacks:
Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow(Bengals) $6100 vs Packers in week four, Burrow completed 25 of 32 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-21 win at the Jaguars. This marked his highest number of pass attempts on the season.
With Joe Mixon(ankle) possibly out for the game, more responsibility will likely be shouldered by Burrow in week five. Facing a Packers’ defense that gives up the 15th most fantasy points to QBs, Burrow has an opportunity to be a top ten quarterback this week.
Mac Jones(Patriots) $5300 @ Texans over the last two games, Jones has completed 61 of 91 pass attempts for 545 yards and three touchdowns. Despite three interceptions during those two games, Jones has proven to be a valuable fantasy asset when allowed to carry the load.
After facing the Saints and Bucs the last two week, Jones gets a breather with his week five opponent. The Texans allow the sixth most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and the implied total for New England is 25. At this price point, Jones allows DFS players to pay up elsewhere.
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Running Backs:
Damian Williams($5600) @ Raiders as the posted link indicates, fellow running back David Montgomery is out for the next four to six weeks with a knee injury. While replacing Montgomery in week four, Williams had eight carries for 55 yards and a touchdown. Williams also added two receptions for 15 yards, allowing him to tally 15 PPR fantasy points on the day.
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In week five, Williams faces a Raiders’ defense that allows the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Despite an implied total of only 19, newly named starting quarterback Justin Fields should add spark to the offense. DFS players should view Williams as an RB2 in week five.
Leonard Fournette(Bucs) $5200 vs Dolphins in week four, Fournette had 23 touches(20 carries) for 139 yards. Although Ronald Jones scored a touchdown, Fournette secured 23 touches compared to Jones’ six.
Fournette faces a Dolphins’ defense that allows the third most fantasy points to RBs. With an implied total of 29, Fournette has a solid chance to be a top 12 running back in week five. With the 28th highest DraftKings price, he offers tremendous value.
Wide Receivers:
Laviska Shenault(Jaguars) $4800 vs Titans fellow wide receiver D.J. Chark broke his left ankle during the week four game against the Bengals, and is now out for the season. In his stead, Shenault had six receptions(on seven targets) for 99 yards.
In week five, the Jags take on a Titans’ defense that gives up the second most fantasy points to WRs. With an opportunity for more targets against a leaky defense, look for Shenault to finish as a top 30 receiver this week.
Embed from Getty ImagesJaylen Waddle(Dolphins) $4800 @ Bucs on the season, Waddle has 25 catches(on 30 targets) for 200 yards and one touchdown. Despite an implied total of only 19, Waddle should have success against a Bucs’ defense that allows the most fantasy points to WRs. Look for Waddle to be a top 30 WR in week five.
Tight End:
Hunter Henry(Patriots) $3700 @ Texans over the last two weeks, Henry has nine catches(on 11 targets) for 68 yards and one touchdown. In week five, he faces a Texans’ defense that gives up the second most fantasy points to TEs. With an implied total of 25, Henry should be a solid streaming option this week.
Cameron Brate(Bucs) $3300 vs Dolphins with Rob Gronkowski likely out with a rib injury in week five, Brate should have an opportunity for increased targets. In week four, Brate had two catches(on six targets) for 29 yards.
Having faced the Patriots in week four, the week five matchup against the Dolphins is more tight end friendly. The Dolphins give up the the thirteenth most fantasy points to TEs. With an implied total of 29, Brate has the opportunity to be a low end TE1 this week.
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