NFL DFS Value Plays-Week 6

As we head into week six of the NFL season, the “main slate” consists of fewer games(10) than it has all season. Week six marks the beginning of nine consecutive bye weeks across the league. The Falcons, Saints, Jets and 49ers are the four teams on bye this week. I am attaching the 2021 byes list for future planning.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-bye-weeks-2021-fantasy-football-cheat-sheet/

In addition to the four teams on bye, four other “prime time” games will also not be included as part of the main slate. These four games include: 1) Thursday Night-Bucs @ Eagles; 2) Sunday Morning’s London game-Dolphins and Jaguars; 3) Sunday Night-Seahawks @ Steelers; and 4) Monday Night-Bills @ Titans.

Week Five Review:

Week five turned out to be a week of modest success. Out of 8 selections, I was happy with four. Joe Burrow completed 26 of 38 for 281 yards and two touchdowns. Constantly under pressure, Burrow performed well in an overtime loss to the Packers. My other top selections were: 1) Leonard Fournette( 12 rushes for 67 yards and a TD/4 catches for 43 yards-21 PPR fantasy points); 2) Damien Willians( 16 rushes for 64 yards and a TD/ 2 catches for 20 yards-16.4 fantasy points); and 3) Hunter Henry(6 catches for 75 yards and a TD-19.5 fantasy points).

My disappointments included: 1) Mac Jones( 23-30 for 231 yards and a touchdown); 2) Laviska Shenault(1 catch for 58 yards); 3) Jaylen Waddle( 2 catches for 31 yards); and 4) Cameron Brate(1 catch for 12 yards).

Quarterbacks:

Joe Burrow(Bengals) $6300 @ Lions although I was not wanting to suggest the same quarterback in consecutive weeks, Burrow’s matchup at the Lions was too enticing to pass up. On the season, Burrow has now completed 104 of 145 pass attempts(71.7 percent) for 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Although Burrow has played well all season, the passing volume has increased recently with him having 70 pass attempts over the last two weeks. Despite the Lions only giving up the 12th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, this is still an exploitable matchup. With an implied total of 25, look for Burrow to finish week six as a top ten fantasy quarterback.

Taylor Heinicke(Washington Football Team) $5800 vs Chiefs. in a game featuring an over/under of 55.5 points, Heinicke is my favorite value QB this week. Although his stats have not been stellar on the season( 102/159 for 1208 yards and 8 touchdowns), he should thrive against a Chiefs’ defense that allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Likely trailing for much of the game, Heinicke should have thirty plus pass attempts in this one. DFS players should view him as a low end QB1, whose price tag allows higher priced selections elsewhere.

Running Backs:

Week 6 Fantasy Football:Break Out or Fake Out

Devontae Booker(Giants) $5400 vs Rams with Saquon Barkley currently listed as doubtful for week six, Booker will be the next man up. In week 5’s 44-20 loss to the Cowboys, Booker was very involved. He had 16 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown, while adding 4 catches for 22 yards and a second TD.

Although the matchup against the Rams is far from easy(Rams give up 15th most fantasy points to RBs), the anticipated volume will allow Booker to finish week six as an RB2. Even though I don’t see a high ceiling week, the floor play will allow DFS players to pay up elsewhere.

Khalil Herbert(Bears) $4600 vs Packers Herbert is almost an identical replica of Booker’s status for week six, but at a lower price tag. In week five, Herbert had 18 carries for 75 yards. He split time with the aforementioned Damian Williams. Williams will miss this week’s game, after testing positive for COVID.

Just like the Rams, the Packers will likely offer resistance to Herbert being a ceiling play. The Packers give up the 17th most fantasy points to RBs, and the Bears’ implied total is only 20. Unlike Booker, Herbert may offer little or nothing in the passing game. In 46 college games, he only had 34 receptions. Despite some downside, Herbert will provide lineup flexibility.

Wide Receivers:

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Tee Higgins(Bengals) $5300 @ Lions despite already missing two games this year, Higgins has amassed 15 catches(on 22 targets) for 150 yards and two touchdowns.After missing the previous two games, Higgins returned to a seventy percent snap rate and seven targets in week five.

With the one game under his belt, look for Higgins to be more involved in week six. With an implied total of 25, Higgins should be viewed as a top 25 wide receiver this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown(Lions) $4200 vs Bengals over the last two weeks, St. Brown has accumulated 13 catches(on 16 targets) for 135 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. This upswing in production was accompanied by an increase in playing time(at least 69 percent of the snaps in each of the last two games).

The Bengals allow the 16th most fantasy points to WRs, so St. Brown has a matchup that can be beaten. With fellow WR Quintez Cephus now out for the season, look for St.Brown to emerge as the Lions’ WR1.

In week six, he should finish as a WR3. At the current price tag, St. Brown could easily provide the most WR value on the board.

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry(Patriots) $3900 vs Cowboys after only recording seven targets over the first two games, Henry has really picked up the pace over the last three. In those three games combined, Henry has 15 catches(on 19 targets) for 143 yards and two touchdowns. With the Cowboys giving up the 11th most fantasy points to TEs and an implied total of 24, look for Henry to continue his hot streak. DFS players should look for top ten production this week.

Ricky Seals-Jones(Washington Football Team) $3k vs Chiefs in week five, Seals-Jones replaced an injured Logan Thomas( hamstring). Playing on 99 percent of the snaps, Seals-Jones had 5 catches(on nine targets) for 41 yards.

Aa mentioned in the Heinicke write up, Washington will be forced to pass a lot this week. The Chiefs give up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, and the implied total is 24. At a bargain basement price, Seals-Jones has the opportunity to be a low end TE1.

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