NFL DFS Value Plays-Week 7
Entering week seven, DFS players are faced with another scaled back slate of only ten games. This week, however, the amount of talent missing is even more ominous than it was in week six. The six teams on bye for week seven include: 1) Bills; 2) Cowboys; 3) Chargers; 4) Vikings; 5) Steelers; and 6) Jaguars.
In addition to the six teams on bye, the three “prime time” games include: 1) Thursday Night-Broncos@ Browns ; 2) Sunday Night- Colts @ 49ers; and 3) Monday Night-Saints @ Seahawks. As one can tell, there is a massive amount of talent missing from every position except tight end.
Week Six Review:
Week six turned out to be a very good week in regards to selecting value plays that would help your lineup. The biggest value turned out to be Khalil Herbert. At a price tag of only $4600, he rushed 19 times for 97 yards and a touchdown. In adding 2 catches for 15 yards, his final PPR total was 19.2 fantasy points.
Along with Herbert, several other players that were suggested had good fantasy days, and offered lineup flexibility. These players included: 1) Joe Burrow( 19-29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns): 2) Hunter Henry( 2 catches for 25 yards and a touchdown-10.5 fantasy points); and 3) Ricky Seals-Jones( 4 catches for 58 yards and one TD- 15.8 fantasy points).
Quarterbacks:
Matt Ryan( Falcons) $5700 @ Dolphins after a week six bye, Ryan travels to Miami to take on the Dolphins. On the season, Ryan has completed 141 of 204 pass attempts for 1332 yards and ten touchdowns. He has also thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of the last four games.
The Dolphins have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the implied total for the Falcons is 25. Getting back both Calvin Ridley(missed one game due to personal reasons) and Russell Gage(three games due to an ankle injury) will give Ryan the most weapons he has had since week two. DFS players should view Ryan as a top 8 QB this week
Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa(Dolphins) $5500 vs Falcons with no intention of selecting both quarterbacks from the same game, this game has a shot to be a sneaky high scoring affair. After missing three games with fractured ribs, Tua came back in week six to complete 33 of 47 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns vs the Jaguars.
Similar to the Dolphins, the Falcons have been generous to opposing quarterbacks(allowing the 11th most fantasy points). Although the current over/under is only 47, this game feels like one that will easily surpass that total. Look for both Tagovailoa and Ryan to be top 12 options this week.
Running Backs:
Miles Sanders(Eagles) $5100 @ Raiders Sanders has had moderate success this season, rushing 57 times for 270 yards(4.7 YPC) and zero touchdowns. He also has 14 catches for 82 yards.
Although those stats are far from ideal, Sanders seems be on the verge of a breakout. As I’ve mentioned before, a breakout requires both talent and opportunity. The 4.7 yards per carry indicates talent. His 83 percent snap share provides the opportunity. Against a Raiders’ defense that allows the 12th most fantasy points to RBs, look for Sanders to be a top 12 RB in week seven.
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Devonta Freeman(Ravens) $4400 vs Bengals with Latavius Murray likely sitting out this week with an ankle injury, look for Freeman to take the lead role. In week six, Freeman had nine carries for 53 yards and a touchdown. He also looked very mobile while doing it.
In week seven, he faces a Bengals’ defense that allows the 15th most fantasy points to running backs. Assuming Freeman gets 15+ touches, look for him to be a top 20 running back this week.
Wide Receivers:
Darnell Mooney(Bears) $4600 @ Bucs in week six, Mooney had six catches(on 8 targets) for 45 yards and a touchdown. Despite having three more targets on the season than Allen Robinson(39 to 36) and leading the team in receiving yards(306), Mooney still finds himself being priced $500 less than Robinson.
In week seven, the Bears face a Bucs’ defense that allows the sixth most fantasy points to WRs. As almost two touchdown underdogs, there should be more targets to go around. DFS players should view Mooney as a low end WR2 at one of the better price points on the board.
Embed from Getty ImagesRashod Bateman(Ravens) $3400 vs Bengals at this price tag, this play seems like a free square to me. After missing the first five games of the season recovering from core muscle surgery, Bateman returned in week six to face the Chargers. Although the production was minimal( 4 catches for 29 yards), the team tying six targets was encouraging. In addition, Bateman ran a route on 67 percent of Lamar Jackson’s drop backs.
Bateman faces a Bengals defense that allows the twelfth fewest fantasy points to WRs. Despite the relatively tough matchup, I am willing to take a chance at this bargain basement price. With his team having an implied total of 27, Bateman should be utilized as a WR3/Flex.
Tight Ends:
Hunter Henry(Patriots) $4100 vs Jets although I hate to recommend the same player in consecutive weeks, Henry has another very exploitable matchup against the Jets. The Jets give up the ninth most fantasy points to TEs.
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Over the last four games, Henry has 17 catches( on 21 targets) for 168 yards and touchdowns in three consecutive games. Look for Henry to continue his hot streak, and finish within the top ten at his position.
Zach Ertz(Cardinals) $3900 vs Texans with Maxx Williams being lost for the season due to a knee injury, the Cardinals obtained Ertz from the Eagles in a trade. Over a three game span(weeks 2-4), Williams had 15 catches for 179 yards and one touchdown.
Splitting time with Dallas Goedert, Ertz had 18 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Although I’m somewhat leery of Ertz’s involvement in his first game with the Cardinals, I’m willing to take a chance on Murray’s willingness to spread the ball around to the open receiver. Ertz will be a top ten option, against a Texans’ defense that allows the seventh most fantasy points to TEs.
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