Breaking Down The Most Baffling Week 12 Bets

Another wonky week in the NFL won’t get us down. We, the die-hard sports bettors and fantasy football players, eat pressure for breakfast. Here’s an attempt to unlock the mystery of this week’s toughest game bets. (Odds via BetMGM)

Carolina at Miami

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With the second-lowest O/U projection on the week at 42 points, the Panthers at the Dolphins is a decent game to bet the over and the upset on, Miami to win, even. Carolina is averaging a measly 293 yards per game over the last three weeks, ranked 26^th in the league. Not that Miami is bursting offensively, as they average a mere 334 yard per game over that time. Mike Gesicki has an exploitable matchup for the Dolphins, as does DJ Moore for the Panthers. The other receiver/coverage matchups are subpar in this contest. 

Obviously, Carolina’s strength is their run game with Christian McCaffery and Cam Newton. Four of their last six touchdowns have been rushing. Miami has neutralized rushers lately; however. They’ve not allowed a rushing touchdown in the last five weeks. Opponents are only attempting an average of 20 rushes per game against the Dolphins and only averaging 90 rushing yards per game on them. 

Atlanta at Jacksonville

In the running for the least anticipated game of the week, one might recoil from touching Atlanta at Jacksonville. Still, I really like Trevor Lawrence to get his third NFL win in this one (I correctly predicted his first win). And I don’t even really like Lawrence (but yes on James Robinson for all you fantasy lovers out there), I just think Atlanta is reprobate at this point.

There are not many teams worse than Jacksonville, but Atlanta is one of them. They’ve literally not scored a touchdown without Cordarrelle Patterson and he’s still injured (questionable at the time of this writing). The consensus is that he will play, but I wouldn’t bank on him being at the top of his game. Jacksonville ranks third over the last three weeks in fewest passing touchdowns allowed anyway, an average of 0.7 per game. They are also surrendering the fifth-fewest passing yards per game during that time.

The Falcons have the league’s lowest points per game average over the last three weeks, an average of 10 on a paltry 268 total yards per game. And despite the Jaguars not being a whole lot better in either category, the Falcons’ defense is, at least, giving up an average of 372 yards per game, while the Jaguars are much stingier, only ceding 310 yards per game to their opposition. 

All in all, the Jaguars win this one and I even like the over here (46) because I think they’re going to win in on the back of an explosive game from Robinson. Kyle Pitts has a really favorable matchup as well. But then again, this might have the makings of a combined eight field goal game. 

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay

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We’re going to go with the flow on the Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay contest. The only reason Green Bay is favored in this game is their home field advantage. But this isn’t your mother’s Matt Stafford from the NFC North. This is Sean McVay’s Matt Stafford of the battering Rams. I just don’t know if Aaron Rodgers and his toe can scurry around this pass rush. 

Before the surprising losses Los Angeles suffered prior to their bye week, the Rams had averaged 302 passing yards per game. Losing Robert Woods was obviously a huge blow, but they have now had some time to have their new receiving crew gel. Cooper Kupp has a fantastic competitive edge against Chandon Sullivan. Odell Beckham and Tyler Higbee have decent matchups as well. 

DeVante Adams is as good as they come, but he’s got to deal with the number one ranked corner all day in Jalen Ramsey. Los Angeles has been so hit and miss with their run defense, but they’ve definitely had a much harder time containing pass-catching backs than pure runners. A. J. Dillion proved capable but not spectacular in both areas in replacement of Aaron Jones last week. 

This risk for the Rams in this game lies in the turnover factor. Green Bay’s defense ranks 8^th in the league in turnovers and Stafford is always susceptible to that threat. If he throws multiple interceptions, this game easily belongs to the Packers. 

Seattle at Washington

Monday night’s challenge is awfully tricky. But I think it’s a perception vs reality issue for the majority of sports fans looking at the contest. Deep down, 90% of us believe that Russell Wilson is going to go back to being DangeRussWilson at any moment; right? We have a hard time accepting that Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team could ever be favored over Wilson and his exceptional receiving duo, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. We look at the odds and think, This is an easy upset. No way the Football Team takes down the Seahawks. 

But we just might be wrong. Heinicke is coming off a three passing touchdown game and the rookie has only had three games this season with less than 200 passing yards. What’s more, Antonio Gibson and the WFT rushing game ranks in the top ten in yards per game over the last three weeks. And that was against some rather stout defenses, Tampa Bay and Carolina. 

Seattle has surrendered an average of 372 yards per game over the last three weeks, the majority of which have come through the air. Terry McLaurin outmatches Seattle’s secondary seven days a week. If Logan Thomas can’t suit up for this matchup, there unfortunately aren’t many options for Heinicke. However, Seattle has surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to the running back position over the last three weeks. This could be a great place for J.D. McKissick to break down the defense. 

Then again, if there ever was a redemption game for Wilson, this would be it. Washington is one of the worst defenses against passing yards per game and receiving touchdowns, ranked 29^th and 31^st respectively. If he can’t gain the upper hand here, our paradigms might permanently shift.

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