Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 13 in the NFL
I assume most leagues have moved the playoffs back from Week 14 to Week 15 with the NFL adding an extra game onto the schedule this year. That means we are in the final stretch. Every single point counts. In all of my leagues, the standings tiebreaker is PF (points for) and in all of my leagues, I am going to lose that tiebreaker ha. Haven’t had the luckiest season this year, what can I say? But for a lot of you that are still in the hunt, the choice between picking the right flex player for those extra few points could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, or possibly getting that sweet first-round bye instead of having to play in Week 15. The stakes are high so I am raising the bar this week on my own standards. I promise that every player I write about this week in the Hot section is going to go off. And every Not player so deserves to be on your bench. No doubt about it, I am writing these games into existence this week. Oh, so you have doubts? Yeah… fair enough.
I wish all of you luck these next two weeks prior to the playoffs. If you have any start/sit questions, obviously I implore you to read the article to get some information on any players I may have written about, but otherwise, you can always send me a message on Twitter or wherever. I know how important fantasy is to me so I’m willing to lend a helping hand at this time of the season. Just remember, I charge $20 a question and I only take Venmo or cash.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesTom Brady, TB @ ATL (Consensus Rank: QB1, My Rank: QB1)
I don’t like thinking that Tom Brady is hot. Although there are times I do get lost in his eyes and perfect hair. I hate him. With a fiery passion. He has ruined football for me so many times and I want revenge. Therefore, I am placing him in the #1 spot in my QB rankings as a reverse jinx. I will tell you all of these amazing stats and reasons why he will be awesome on Sunday only so he can fall on his face. I AM AN EVIL GENIUS!!!
First I would like to point you to Exhibit A. A tweet by Scott Fish. Remember this tweet for later *obvious foreshadowing*.
Tom has destroyed the dirty birds in their few matchups since he has moved down to Florida. (Not to mention he also has this complex about the score 28-3 for some reason. Not totally sure what that is about.) Basically, he likes to beat their brains in. Those historical stats are nice, but there hasn’t been much from his most recent performances to suggest he is going to drop 4 or 5 touchdowns. He has no more than 2 touchdowns in any game since Week 8.
The opponents that he has played in the last few weeks haven’t necessarily been scary on paper either. The Giants were the only “tough” matchup on paper and ironically that is the game he scored the most points in over the last three weeks. The Colts and Washington are among the 8 easiest teams in terms of fantasy points to the QB position over the last five weeks. Atlanta is about ‘middle of the pack’ in that statistic.
So why will this week be any different from his average of 15.84 points since the bye? Because Tom Brady plays up for division games. It doesn’t matter how good or bad you are. These 6 games on the calendar he circles in sharpie and he prepares for them more than other games. That is how he dominated the AFC East for so long. They always won the division. Here are his fantasy points in divisional games since joining the Bucs.
26.2
28.64 (ATL)
31.26 (ATL)
23.4 (ATL)
31.84
5.36
8.68
21.46
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A couple of clunkers in there for sure. The 5 point game was the Saints Sunday Night Football game last year where Brees and Co got out to a nice lead and the defense just suffocated them the whole night. The 8 point game was against Carolina. He has the same amount of 30 point games as single-digit games in this stretch of divisional games. In a time where Tampa seems a little off, give me Brady to prove a point that he is one of the greatest on the road Sunday.
Joe Burrow, CIN vs LAC (Consensus Rank: QB10, My Rank: QB7)
Vegas and I agree on two things. #1 I am a chump. #2 This game in Cincy will be one of the highest-scoring games this weekend. Tied for the highest O/U total at 50.5, I am expecting fireworks between these 2020 first-round QBs.
The Chargers’ defensive statistics are a little bit skewed. They are in the top 10 for the toughest defenses against the QB position this year. However, only 2 teams in the NFL have FEWER passing attempts against them. Meaning that teams aren’t throwing the ball on them as much as other teams. Enter Joe Burrow, the QB with the 3rd highest yards per attempt this season. Joe has been incredibly efficient because of his playmakers Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and of course Ja’Marr Chase.
The issue recently with Joe is his TD numbers are down. His season started with 8 straight games of at least two touchdowns. However, he hasn’t hit that mark since because Cincy has really gotten Joe Mixon going in the ground game. I believe that if this game reaches the Over of 50.5 it will be because of Burrow’s arm rather than Mixon’s legs. Everyone knows the Chargers have a high-powered offense, it is up to Burrow to outscore them rather than the defense to stop them.
I do have one worry though. The Bengals have been leaning on Mixon a ton. The Chargers’ weakness on defense is stopping the run. If the Bengals aren’t ever in catch-up or ‘make sure we hold onto the lead’ mode, then they may just run it down their throats all afternoon. That isn’t what I expect to happen but it is definitely in the realm of possibilities.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesPatrick Mahomes, KC vs DEN (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB8)
Remember a few weeks back when I told you how dominating Mahomes was against the Raiders and then he went off for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns against them? Well, I am worried because this week, Denver is coming to town and they seem to know how to slow our favorite QB down.
Patrick only has one game above 24 fantasy points against Denver in his six career games vs the Broncos. When you have Mahomes on your team, 24 points is the expectation. Anything under that and you are disappointed. Outside of Week 10, we have been disappointed every week since back in Week 4. It has been tough sledding as a Mahomes owner. He is still throwing the ball 35+ times per game but his accuracy or timing is off on those famous off-script plays that always turned into these huge chunk gains. Not only that but in his seven games since Week 4, he has a total of 11 touchdowns. Five of those came in one game. Exclude that game and you have an average of one touchdown per game for the QB you drafted in the 2nd round of your draft.
Denver has the 2nd lowest completion percentage against QBs this season. I’m not sure if I am fading Mahomes this week because of the history, the tough matchup, or his own play just being down this year. The team has rebounded from an early-season skid as far as the wins and losses go but this team goes with Mahomes. If he can’t figure it out, they have no chance at trying to avenge last year’s Super Bowl loss.
Mac Jones, NE @ BUF (Consensus Rank: QB19, My Rank: QB19)
It is not necessarily shocking that Mac Jones is not a starting QB this week in fantasy but he has actually been playing some pretty cheeky football. No, the Patriots haven’t taken him off the leash yet. When he tugs away for a second, he does tend to make some mistakes. But for a young QB, he has impressed me more than I pictured. Screw you, Bill Belichick.
If you were considering starting or streaming Mac this week, I would find a better option. Last week against the Titans, he played the best game of his career to this point. 300 yards, 2 TDs, and only 9 incompletions. He got you 20+ fantasy points and you were happy. Unfortunately, that is only the 2nd time he has done that all season. Every other game has been in the teens or worse. The upside to Mac is totally capped and there are other options like Wentz or Taysom that I prefer this week as streamers.
Additionally, the Patriots are headed to Buffalo and this game is going to be bloody. The Bills have shown they know how to stop Tua’s underneath passing attack and I am sure they will employ a similar strategy in this game. They are the #1 defense in most categories for a reason. The loss of Tre White hurts a lot, but they still have an awesome front 7 and will bring the heat all night long.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesElijah Mitchell, SF @ SEA (Consensus Rank: RB8, My Rank: RB5)
I mentioned to you last week how Seattle gave up 10 fantasy points to 3 RBs in two games. Make that 5 RBs in three games and add JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson to that list.
For the first time in a long while, December in Seattle actually feels cold and wet because Russ and the Seahawks are not cooking. On defense especially. They are giving up over 175 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to RBs this season, second-worst in the league behind the Jets.
I’ve told you about how Seattle has sucked the past few weeks. But I haven’t told you how much a revelation Mitchell has been in over a month. Since the bye week, San Fran has made a renewed focus on the ground and pound model. In that six-game stretch, Mitchell was active for five of those games. In four of those games, he rushed for over 90 yards plus he has a touchdown in three of those.
The one troubling thing about Mitchell is that he had been getting some touches stolen by Deebo and Jeff Wilson out of the backfield. Deebo is going to miss 1-2 weeks with an injury so that won’t be an issue this week. Mitchell might even run a few more routes because of this injury. Last week, he caught 5 of 6 targets. He had only three other games with a catch this season. If he can add a receiving floor to his fantasy output, he will no doubt be the best waiver add this season.
Alexander Mattison, MIN @ DET (Consensus Rank: RB17, My Rank: RB4)
The ranking of RB17 is not up to date on our site because someone has Dalvin Cook still ranked, but I don’t think there is any chance Cook plays in this game. Against Detroit no less. The Vikings don’t need him to win this game. The upside to putting him out there is nil.
That being said, with Cook out, Mattison becomes an instant top 5 player at the position. In his spot starts this year, he has scored 23 and 25 points respectively. They gave him over 30 touches in both games and wouldn’t you know it… one of those games was against the Lions. He also got over 150 scrimmage yards in both games.
The difference between Mattison being a top 10 play and a top 5 play will be if he scores a touchdown. The volume will be there for him to do so, but he has scored in only half of his games as the starter going back to last year. I believe he gets into the end zone this week. And if you are a Cook owner without Mattison, you snooze you lose.
Starting Eagles RB, PHI @ NYJ (Consensus Rank: RB?, My Rank: RB15+)
Start your RBs against the Jets. I know that telling you to just pick whoever the starter is and play them is not really rocket science but we do have some issues going on within the RB room. Boston Scott practiced once this week due to a non-COVID illness. Howard has an illness and is also nursing a knee issue (UPDATE: Jordan Howard is OUT this week.). Miles Sanders practiced but only in a limited fashion while he is trying to take it easy off his ankle injury that he picked up last week. The only fully healthy RB seems to be Kenneth Gainwell but he seems to be the pass-catcher out of the backfield and that is it. Got it? Good.
The reason you need to play the starting Eagles RB this week and go full steam ahead with them is twofold. First, they are playing the Jets. I have mentioned this a few times but the Jets are averaging over 2 touchdowns to RBs PER GAME! The Jets are also terrible at stopping the position in between the 20s. They are giving up the 3rd most rushing yards per game to the position and the 2nd most receiving yards. They truly cannot be helped.
The other reason is that the Eagles’ ground game commitment is not going to change any time soon. Not only is Jalen Hurts a little banged up (meaning maybe they trust the ground game even more to limit Hurts), but they are up to 3rd in the NFL with over 30 rushes per game. They had more rushing attempts than passing attempts in every game since Week 8 (and a few of those have double the rush-to-pass ratio). Hurts is a big part of that rushing attack. If he is limited, perhaps they hand a few more off to the RBs in this game.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
Javonte Williams is finally going to get his spotlight… we hope. Melvin Gordon is “50-50 to play this week” per Coach Fangio so we don’t know if Javonte will finally get his full time in the sun, but if he does he is a must-start against the Chiefs regardless of the strength of the matchup.
I look at this Monday Night game and just feel like it’s going to be a bloodbath. Two teams that don’t like each other fighting for the divisional crown. I don’t feel like the Patriots are going to lean on Mac much in this game, as you can tell from the Not list above, which means I believe that the law firm of Harris and Stevenson may get more work than usual in this game. The Bills rush defense is awesome, but they have been more susceptible on the ground in the last 5 weeks or so, where they are about average in terms of fantasy points against. If I had to pick one to start, I’d go with Harris.
If you’re looking in the deep end of the pool for RBs this week. I’d take longer than a quick glance at Jaret Patterson of the Washington Football Team. He hasn’t played much this year, but with JD McKissic banged up with a concussion, there may be an opportunity for Patterson to get some looks. I don’t expect Gibson to go from his normal 55% snap share to 80% in this game if McKissic is absent. Patterson will be involved. What that looks like, I’m not sure.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesNajee Harris, PIT @ BAL (Consensus Rank: RB4, My Rank: RB10)
One day I’m gonna be old and gray and I’m going to tell my cats about the story of Najee Harris… *visualization fades in* “You know meowers… there was once this great RB. He was so great that he wasn’t just a running back, he was also a wide receiver. He caught so many passes! There was even a game where he caught the ball 14 times on 19 targets! Things were just bliss. And then the bye week happened and Najee Harris become ‘Nojee Harris’. Gone were the days of more than 5 catches per game. His 80% snap share? Snapped away by Thanos himself. It was a terrible tragedy. The end. Ok let’s go get some ice cream and I’ll let you lick the bowl.” What? It’s my visualization…
The last two weeks were the first since Week 2 that he did not touch the ball 20 times. Najee’s fantasy value is totally reliant on volume scoring. He isn’t efficient because his OL is so bad and Ben does so many checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage so there isn’t a lot of YAC to be had. There are only 3 games this season in which he has averaged 4 yards per carry or more. I will guarantee he will not hit that mark this week against Baltimore.
The Ravens are only averaging 70 rushing yards to the RB position. This may be the nastiest rivalry in pro football and it tends to get down and dirty, but even if he breaks 70 yards you need the volume of his pass-catching and a touchdown to pay off as a top 5 play. No chance it happens this week with the Ravens being the 2nd toughest to the position on the season.
Saquon Barkley, NYG @ MIA (Consensus Rank: RB11, My Rank: RB16)
I am a huge believer in Saquon normally. I am also normally a huge hater on the Dolphins rush defense. Therefore, Saquon probably goes off and I look stupid again, but the Not list seems appropriate this week. The best team over the last 5 weeks at stopping running backs? The Dolphins. The 2nd worst OL in all of football? The Giants.
Saquon probably isn’t going to run for 100 yards in this game, in fact, he hasn’t been at all close to that this year. His highest rushing total is only 57 yards. But his best plays come from his ability as a pass-catcher. The good news for Saquon is he was the 3rd most targeted Giant in the two weeks he has played since coming back from injury. He turned that into 10 catches… but only 44 combined yards. That number is not what we are used to seeing from him. I believe he is all the way healthy from his injury at this point, but it seems like opposing teams are determined to stop Saquon from hurting them and I believe Miami will do the same this week. I believe they will make Mike Glennon beat them the entire game and stack the box, trusting the secondary to make plays.
Another piece of bad news is that New York may be getting their most reliable pass catcher in Sterling Shephard back this week. If that happens, you can expect even less of a target share for Saquon. You are praying for a touchdown because I don’t think you can afford to bench him.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Chris Godwin, TB @ ATL (Consensus Rank: WR6, My Rank: WR5)
Remember that tweet I told you to remember from earlier?
With Tom Brady, Chris Godwin has scored 4 times in three games against Atlanta.
In all three of those games, Antonio Brown was on the field. AB had 248 yards and 3 touchdowns in those games. Antonio Brown will not be playing this week. AJ Terrell matched up against Antonio Brown on a large number of his snaps in these games and is one of the league’s best young corners.
Mike Evans runs more perimeter routes than Chris Godwin. AJ Terrell lines up on the perimeter on most of his snaps. Mike had 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in the past three games against Atlanta.
Those were some facts I thought you may like to know. Here is my thinking. No AB = positive for Godwin because he will get more targets. No AB = negative for Evans because he will get more 1v1 coverage with AJ Terrell. More 1v1 coverage on Evans = positive for Godwin because he will be working against two corners I have never heard of which says something because I know most teams’ 3rd and 4th corners.
Godwin is primed for a huge 20+ point effort this week.
Hunter Renfrow, LV @ WFT (Consensus Rank: WR17, My Rank: WR13)
Over the last three weeks, Renfrow has seen his snap share settle into a very nice range in the low 70s. Prior to that, it had been fluctuating from the 50s to the low 70s. This development is awesome news for his fantasy outlook not only this week, but the rest of the season.
With Henry Ruggs no longer being in the NFL and Darren Waller getting hurt, Hunter is set to take over as the top target man on the team. Frankly, because there are no better options. Desean Jackson is on the team now but he is somehow already a little banged up. He also is mainly used as a deep threat. Bryan Edwards is still in the picture but he isn’t being targeted, nor getting onto the field enough. That leaves Renfrow and the RBs.
Washington’s defense may have been rediscovered over the bye week. Since then, they have beaten up on Tom Brady, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson like it was an all-out brawl from 2016. This defense isn’t a pushover like it was earlier on in the season. However, they are still just 16th against WRs in the past five weeks, so they aren’t a team I am fading my players against.
Hunter in the top 15 this week just comes down to a likely target share. If the Raiders intend to score this week, I have to envision that he will be heavily involved as he was last week in an upset win over Dallas.
Odell Beckham Jr, LAR vs JAX (Consensus Rank: WR39, My Rank: WR26)
Call me crazy… but I’m back in. I may have only been watching RedZone last week but what I saw from Odell was much improved from his time in Cleveland. He was gaining separation because his routes were at all areas of the field. He was completely involved in the game with a 98% snap share. But most importantly, he was targeted 10 times.
He only brought in five of those targets but in true vintage Odell fashion, he made them count. 19 fantasy points on the day mean he outscored Stafford’s precious Cooper Kupp on the day. Yes, he got the long touchdown which accounted for 63% of his total points on the day, but that is part of the business. Odell has always been a big play waiting to happen and the Rams are using him in all different ways. Van Jefferson has taken over DJax’s deep threat role and it looks like OBJ is running routes similar to what he did with the Giants. He can dip his toes into short and intermediate routes, but he makes his hay deeper down the field.
I like what I have seen from OBJ and I like what I see in this matchup. The Jags are the 12th most forgiving defense against WRs this year and I’m honestly surprised it isn’t worse than that. They have only held one team all year under 20 points and that was against the Bills in that weird 9-6 victory a few weeks back. The Rams need a get-right game and I think they might choose to bully Jacksonville for a couple of hours at home this week.
Keep an eye on his injury status going into this game. He logged a DNP on Thursday.
George Kittle, SF @ SEA (Consensus Rank: TE3, My Rank: TE1)
No Deebo Samuel. No problem. JimmyG’s favorite target is healthy and ready to take on a larger role. Yes, I think Brandon Aiyuk has a big chance to take advantage of those lost touches from Deebo’s injury, but the biggest beneficiary is George.
The 49ers are and were a run-first team even with Deebo going nuts this entire year. George is a big part of that as one of the best run-blocking tight ends. They will continue to be that this week against Seattle as I suggested by calling Elijah Mitchell hot. But when the 49ers needed a play this season where did they go? Deebo. Where had they gone in the past? You guessed it. Mr. Kittle.
I know… last week sucked. The positive is that he was on the field for 93% of the game and he is 100% healthy again. Last week was also the first game he didn’t catch a touchdown since returning from injury. When they get into the red zone, they are looking for the big man.
Seattle is serviceable on defense against the tight end position, but if they try to put Jamal Adams on him they are going to be in for a painful afternoon. Jamal is good enough to cover modest tight ends but not route runners like George.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
The Patriots have been shut down on defense as of late. Nothing is getting past them from the WR/TE spots. I am downgrading Diggs and Knox a bit this week, but I am actually upgrading Cole Beasley. I think there is a chance that Cole could get one of those 8 catch 64-yard performances whilst picking up like five first downs. This game is going to be scrappy, which will be perfect for Cole. He is one of the toughest slot WRs in the NFL today. New England is not as strong at nickel CB as they are on the outside.
Foster Moreau is not Darren Waller. Trust me, I checked. But with Waller absent earlier this season in Week 7, Moreau subbed in and scored a touchdown, plus he added 60 yards on 6 catches. That 18 point PPR performance was better than every single game Waller had this year except two. I feel good about starting him with Waller likely out this week.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Jefferson, MIN @ DET (Consensus Rank: WR2, My Rank: WR9)
Man, it hurts to have my first mention of Justin Jefferson in this column with me putting him on the Not list. That just doesn’t feel right in my soul. I love this kid. He is so talented and deserves way more targets than he is already getting. Mike Zimmer wanting to run the ball so much is hurting the world!
Detroit is possibly the best matchup in football for an offense. Especially a WR because I don’t even know if the Lions line up with multiple corners on the field. I could be wrong but I’m not sure what I saw on Thanksgiving was actual football. My fear isn’t the matchup for Justin. My fear is that the Lions may not score and that Alexander Mattison is going to touch the ball 30+ times in this game. If that happens, we could see a game similar to how the 49ers have been playing. Possession of the ball for 40 minutes and they are just churning first downs with the short stuff. Jefferson is a big play waiting to happen. Sure, he has caught the ball near the line of scrimmage. Sure, he has a wonderful route running ability for the short and intermediate stuff. But with the possibility of a limited amount of targets, I am worried we won’t see a typical performance.
In their game against the Lions earlier this season (where Mattison also started), Jefferson had a typical performance. 7 catches for 124 yards. Well over 10 yards per catch. They only won that game 19-17… on a last-second FG by Minnesota. Meaning if they missed that kick they would’ve lost. Since that loss, the Lions have lost by 38, 23, and 9 points. They have played their more recent contests very closely, but now they are without D’Andre Swift and the teams they were playing against in that stretch all could not score more than 20 points. If the Vikings don’t score 20 this week I will be shocked. I hope Jefferson is the reason they do put up more than 20 points. But if they get up early and he hasn’t been involved, it could be a really quiet day.
Darnell Mooney, CHI vs AZ (Consensus Rank: WR20, My Rank: WR27)
Mooney has been something of a revelation the past few weeks. 120 yards in back-to-back games. This for a Bears team that has struggled on offense, he has been the sole bright spot. That streak ends this week. Arizona has been one of the strongest teams against WRs in the last 5 weeks. On the entire season? They have been exceptional. Giving up only 138 receiving yards to the WR position per game on a very modest 12 yards per catch.
That 12 yards per catch number is important. Mooney’s yards per catch this season is over 15. In these past two games, it is over 24. He did get sixteen and eight targets in his last two contests but only managed to haul in 5 of those passes in each game. Dalton is the QB again this week which could be considered good news, but I don’t think the yards after catch will be as available this week.
Travis Kelce, KC vs DEN (Consensus Rank: TE1, My Rank: TE4)
Let me stop you right there. You are starting him. You never bench Kelce. Not ever. But I gotta tell you… I’m worried. You know what I think about Mahomes already. Since Week 5 (when Mahomes and the offense started struggling), Kelce only has two weeks with over 75 receiving yards. Kelce’s receiving prop on my sportsbook right now is set at 72.5. I took the under.
Denver is one of the best teams in the NFL at defending the tight-end position. I have often picked on the tight ends playing against them in this column because it is just too easy. But Kelce is another animal. He is a WR1 in a tight end body so I know he will get his work. But how much will that be?
Well, his four most recent games against the Broncos are kinda all over the place.
6.1 (12)
27.6 (19.32)
10.4 (7.24)
25.2 (23.7)
He went over 100 yards twice and only scored one touchdown in those meetings. The numbers in the parenthesis are Mahomes’ fantasy outputs in those games as well. Typically, he goes how Mahomes goes in these matchups. Mahomes is QB8 for me this week.
Good luck this week! Also, if the Dolphins end the season 10-7 and are on a 9 game win streak, I might just die. Mainly because they will somehow still miss the playoffs. These are the things I think about.
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