The Best Value RB in Fantasy at Their Current ADP

The Best Value RB in Fantasy at Their Current ADP

Every year there are those running backs no one saw coming, like in 2021, who had James Connor as a top 10 running back? Leonard Fournette? Yeah, me either. I asked a bunch of fantasy writers to give me their Best value RB at their current ADP. The following were their answers, enjoy…

*Underdog ADP was used in the Sub-Headings for context, but the writers may have cited different ADPs in their blurbs*

Kenny Gainwell (PHI) ADP 158.6 RB48

Gainwell’s selection by the Eagles in the 5th round of the 2021 Draft showed the purposeful move to build the offense in Nick Sirianni’s and Shane Steichen’s image. The Memphis back was a useful weapon early on in the season as a receiver and in the red zone, but he was pushed aside when Philly shifted to a more physical gap run-heavy philosophy. I expect the acquisition of AJ Brown to unlock a better passing attack with Jalen Hurts.

Gainwell is likely to be the go-to back in the event that the Eagles go uptempo and plan to put stress on the defense through exploiting matchups in space. He is currently being drafted as the 44th running back off the board, which trails his RB42 season as a rookie. Don’t be at all surprised if Gainwell is an RB2 in 2022. 50 targets came his way in a season where his piece of the offense disappeared in the second half. The ceiling here is a mile above where he is getting drafted. Bo McBrayer of Fantasy Pros @Bo_McBigTime

Rashaad Penny (SEA) ADP 116.0 RB37

This man was not worth a roster spot for most of the 2021 season. However, from weeks 13-thru-17, he averaged 18.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues, which is league-winner territory. Finally getting healthy during his fourth year in the league. Seattle picked up his fifth-year option and will want to see if they can rely on him in the future. I’m not sure if Chris Carson ever plays again and DeeJay Dallas is not someone to ever be worried about.

Newley drafted Ken Walker is all that stands between a healthy Penny being a true workhorse. Really hate it for those of you that waisted a draft pick on Walker in your recent rookie drafts, as he is already dealing with hammy issues and not someone that I am upset about passing on.

In a recent sleeper best ball draft I was able to draft Penny at 9.1, my RB4. Due to tons of great receivers in that area, his price could get even better. He stands out as a top target in the later rounds as an RB3 or 4. Even if he only gives you half a season worth of production, he would be a nice trade piece if he can avoid injury. Floyd Goodnight of Goingfor2.com @QuinnFloydG

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James Connor (ARI) ADP 33 RB15

Connor had a great turnaround year with the Cardinals, going for 1127 yards and 18 touchdowns and that was while sharing time with Edmonds. Connor finished RB9 on the season and will continue that workhorse running in 2022. He will have newcomer Darrell Williams as well as rookie Keaontay Ingram, but the dominant role and touches will be Connor’s, and according to Sleeper, he ADP RB 39.

Are you kidding me? He is an every-week plug and play who will yield RB2 numbers. I know folks are hesitant about Connor considering his injuries in Pittsburgh, but he fits better in Arizona. I will take Connor all day in redraft at that price. I expect him to have another great year as Kyler will use him as his ole’ reliable considering Hopkins’s suspension. Courtney Burrows of GoingFor2.com @luvtractor3 

Leonard Fournette (TB) ADP 23.2 RB11

If I told you that you could grab a top TE and 3 WRs before taking an RB, but still get an RB1, you’d take that, right? Well depending on what site you use for ADP, it is possible to do just that. Some sites have him going in the top 25, but I’ve seen other sites that have him going on average as the 5.02. Let’s split the difference and call him a late third, early fourth.

That’s insane value for an RB that finished as one of the top half dozen RBs in fantasy football last year! Will he finish that high again? Maybe, maybe not but even for a top 10 fantasy RB, that is amazing value. He is still just 27 years old and has plenty of tread left on his tires.

He impressed both Giselle’s hubby and the TB front office so much that he signed a nice little 3-year deal worth up to $24 million. I don’t always gauge upcoming performance by what a team pays a player, but with most of the pieces intact from last year’s squad, we can expect “Lombardi Lenny” to get plenty of touches and carries, likely very close to the 86% he got last year.

But it’s not just the volume. Fournette was efficient too, averaging a solid 4.5 yards per carry. Fournette’s stats are not limited to the rushing game either. Chris Godwin is likely out to start the season; plus Rob Gronkowski is currently a free agent and hasn’t signed with TB. Don’t be surprised to see Fournette get even more than the whopping 84 targets he saw last year, which he converted into 69 catches for 454 yards and two touchdowns.

Either way, you are looking at a top-ten RB that you can currently get after the first three rounds. Even if he costs you a mid-3rd-round pick, that’s still mind-boggling. Clearly, he is one of the best RB values on the board. Mark Strausberg of fantasysixpack.net @MarkStrausberg

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Elijah Mitchell (SF) ADP 71.7 RB24

I don’t understand the disrespect Elijah Mitchell is getting from the fantasy community. First off, in the 11 games played he averaged 17.25 attempts per game, only six running backs averaged more attempts per game; Derrick Henry (27.38), Jonathan Taylor (19.53), Dalvin Cook (19.15), Alvin Kamara (18.46), Joe Mixon (18.25), and Najee Harris (18.06). Of those top six running backs, only Jonathan Taylor had higher yards per carry average than Mitchell’s 4.7.

And then there is this…

There were only 5 RBs in 2021 with an “average yards after contact per attempt” higher than 3 yards(min 200atts)
N. Chubb 3.74
J. Taylor 3.67
Javonte W. 3.24
D. Henry 3.1

…Elijah Mitchell 3.11

The first 4 are being drafted Top 36 in startup ADP (DLF). Mitchell is going 62nd 🤷🏻‍♂️

— Geoff Lambert 🄶 🄵 ² (@GeoffLambert77) June 13, 2022

Geoff Lambert of GoingFor2.com @GeoffLambert77

AJ Dillon (GB) ADP 73.8 RB25

Aaron Jones is back in Green Bay but AJ Dillon’s 2021 season was a success and fantasy owners can expect at least that level of production in 2022, likely more. Dillon totaled 1,116 yards while leading the Packers in carries (187) and rushing yards (803). He sported some receiving upside, catching 92 percent of his targets with two receiving touchdowns.
Davante Adams’ departure provides more value for the Green Bay running backs and Packer head coach Matt Lafleur loves to split the work between his running backs.

Aaron Rodgers is still in town, so the offense will still have plenty of scoring opportunities. Expect Rodgers to rely heavily on his running backs and for Dillon to build on his 2021 performance. Dillon possesses solid RB2 standalone value, with massive upside if Jones suffers an injury, which he has been prone to do in his professional career. As the 27th running back off the board, according to Fantasy Pros ADP, Dillon is a steal for fantasy managers. Jordan Arceneaux of GoingFor2.com @jarceneaux89

Nyheim Hines (IND) ADP 139.3 RB44

Entering the final season of his rookie contract last year, the Indianapolis Colts reached their make-or-break moment before the start of the 2021 campaign when it came to setting how they’d value Nyheim Hines in their future plans. What ended up being the verdict? Granting him a 3-year extension worth up to $18.6 million with $12 million guaranteed. At the time, it was the highest among all non-lead running backs. Coming into this season, Hines is earning the third-most amongst skill position players.

The team clearly sees him as a pivotal piece towards any type of run they can potentially make towards the playoffs and with only three players last year averaging at least 15 rush attempts per game in what can be considered a “bell cow” role (granted, one of them was fellow Colt and the 2021 RB1 overall, Jonathan Taylor), more and more teams are choosing the value in mixing up their backfield’s approach, switching out players on specific plays and situations, as well as the general longevity that comes when not overworking your RB1 too much.

Colts Head Coach Frank Reich has acknowledged how much they need to use Hines more in their offense and with Matt Ryan now behind center, Hines is expected to receive more efficient looks in the passing game, in addition to the few rushing attempts he will relieve Taylor for the sake of keeping each other healthy for the full season.

Hines has been on the field for an average of 36.4% of the team’s snaps. Though nominal, he did see a slight dip in that number last season at 31.6%, so you could expect that with not just positive regression, but also the team’s financial commitment to him, that should increase back to his ‘normal’. Then there’s the offense’s overall improvement in terms of efficiency.

As alluded to before, Ryan replaces the now Washington Commander Carson Wentz at quarterback, and the team overall should benefit with more trips downfield and more opportunities to score. Last year, Ryan was top 10 in completions, and Wentz was two yards away from barely making the top 20. Ryan was 7th best in terms of percentage of passes dropped per pass attempt, while Wentz was tied for the 12th worst.

Ryan will undoubtedly hit guys in stride and help the team stay competitive the few times they may be trailing in games. Hines could be considered one of those “match-up proof” running backs in that he either sees a moderate increase in being on the field, benefiting from a more accurate check-down passer in games they are winning while seeing garbage time and volume in passing downs over Taylor in games they are behind.

The current ECR for Hines is RB42, and I’d be comfortable taking him as a top 36 running back, especially should my draft take me down a road where I went with an elite wide receiver early, or even wanted some running back depth in deeper leagues where positional scarcity is that much more scarce. Erick Torres of GoingFor2.com @ErickT_FFB

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J.K. Dobbins (BAL) ADP 56.0 RB21

The triple-option in Baltimore gets one of its strongest pieces back this season in J.K. Dobbins. Currently, he’s being drafted as the 20th running back off the board and falling somewhere at the beginning of the fourth round overall. Many have forgotten that Dobbins led all Ravens running backs with 805 yards in his rookie season. He also rushed for nine touchdowns, which led the entire team. There is no doubt that Lamar Jackson will continue to get his in the run game. But, he’s not getting any younger and injury will begin to play a factor as it did last season.

This should lead to Dobbins shouldering more of the burden in that respect. With an extra game on the schedule, a 1,000-yard season is not out of the question for him in that run-first offense. In fact, he has a better shot of outperforming the likes of Aaron Jones or David Montgomery, both of which are in fringe RB1 territory. Neither reached even 850 yards last season. Getting a solid starting running back on a team built to run is what every fantasy player hopes to accomplish. Getting one in the fourth round of your draft is a steal. Rod Villagomez of SGPN (Sports Gambling Podcast Network) @rjvillagomez

Melvin Gordon (DEN) ADP 108.4 RB35

When Melvin Gordon was brought back to Denver on a 2-year deal this spring, you heard a giant groan from all Javonte Williams owners. 2021 showed that they can both coexist in the same backfield for fantasy owners. Javonte is still the shiny new toy that has the longer-term value in dynasty leagues but he costs about a whole 7 rounds earlier.

Anytime Gordon is on the field in the red zone, he’s a TD threat. And with Russell Wilson, they’ll be in the red zone a ton. With Gordon, you’re looking at a 230-plus touch back, with double-digit TD upside in the 8th round! If you know anything about roster construction, Gordon could be your team’s RB4 whole already having 2-3 WRs and a top-tier TE…Sign me up for that all day. Jerry Wilke of GoingFor2.com @JerryWilkeFM

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