Three Former 1st-Rounds Picks that Will Let You Down

These three receivers were drafted in the first round in 2020 by their respective teams.  Two have fantasy relevance and one isn’t even relevant to his team.  

The question is are you going to buy the hype?

Three Former 1st-Rounds Picks that Will Let You Down

JALEN REAGOR

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles, 1.21 Draft Pick 2020

2020 stats: 11 games, 54 targets, 31 receptions, 396 yards, 1 TD

2021 stats: 17 games, 57 targets, 33 receptions, 299 yards, 2 TD

First, let’s start with the obvious, the Eagles took Reagor instead of Justin Jefferson who was taken one pick later by the Minnesota Vikings, I think that speaks for itself. 

Second, in two seasons, Reagor has not managed to eclipse 400 receiving yards, and last season he was WR85 in your fantasy leagues.  Reagor sees most of his snaps on special teams, which may help the Eagles but doesn’t do anything for your fantasy team (unless you have the Eagles defense, and he breaks one for a touchdown). 

And now the Eagles have acquired AJ Brown, which will naturally vulture Reagor’s abysmal 12.2% target share and 66.8% snap share.

Reagor is currently behind not only Brown but DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Zach Pascal in the wide receiver room.  

To call him a disappointment for fantasy players is a massive understatement.  

BRANDON AIYUK 

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers, 1.25 Draft Pick 2020 Draft

2020 stats: 12 games, 96 targets, 60 receptions, 748 yards, 5 TD

2021 stats: 17 games, 84 targets, 56 receptions, 826 yards, 5 TD

It doesn’t help that Aiyuk is playing on a team that passed the ball 29.4 times on average last season, with a passing percentage of 51.61%.  Out of 32 teams, their attempts ranked them 31^st, only the Seattle Seahawks had fewer passing attempts.  Their passing percentage was 29^th in the league.  

Then there is the fact that Aiyuk is the third option in the limited passing game.  Last season Deebo Samuel led the team with 121 targets, 77 receptions, and 1405 yards.  And while playing two fewer games than Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle had 10 more targets (94), 15 more receptions (71), and 94 more receiving yards (910) than Aiyuk.

And in this season, there appears to be a change of quarterback with Trey Lance looking to be the starter.  Lance has a relatively small sample size, but again this is a run-first team.  In 2021 the 49ers’ game pass rate in neutral games was 53%, the fifth-lowest in the league.

It is unfair to label Aiyuk a disappointment, the skill set and glimpses of what he can do are there.  His current ADP is in the middle of the sixth round as WR28.  But per fantasyfootballcalculator.com his ADP 8.08 equals the eighth pick of the eighth round.  If you can pick the potential of Aiyuk up in the eighth your disappointment could be minimal. 

Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos, 15th overall pick 2020 NFL Draft

2020 stats: 16 games, 113 targets, 52 receptions, 856 yards, 3 TD

2021 stats: 10 games, 56 targets, 38 receptions, 467 yards, 0 TD

Seriously, it isn’t like I think Jeudy is a bust.  I mean he isn’t responsible for our expectations.  The fantasy community was salivating at his route-running skills and the fact that when the ball reaches him, he has already accumulated 2.45 target separation (first in the league).  

Part of the high expectations for Jeudy this year revolves around the fact that the Broncos not only acquired the services of new head coach Nathaniel Hackett but more importantly the services of quarterback Russell Wilson.  Now, or so the narrative goes Jeudy’s fantasy ceiling will not be hampered by sub-par quarterbacks.  He will be unleashed to erase prior disappointment and finally live up to expectations. 

Here is the thing though, in two years Jeudy has a total of three touchdowns.  Tim Patrick playing under the same quarterbacks has 11 touchdowns in the same two years.

Jeudy is currently the 24^th wide receiver with an ADP #61.  

The current theory is that Courtland Sutton and Patrick will play on the outside and Jeudy will man the slot (unless KJ Hamler overtakes him.  

Wilson in the past has had no problem sustaining two top-15 wide receivers.  But now there are three viable wide receivers, two able running backs adept at catching passes, and one great and one meh pass-catching tight ends.  Who will survive to disappoint you the least?

So, What Now?

Your disappointment level is directly correlated to your expectations.  All three of these gentlemen had considerable draft capital spent on them by their teams (so yeah, there may be some disappointment associated with their teams), but you my friend can temper your expectations.  Unless you are expecting something, anything from Reagor, then that’s on you.

Aiyuk

Aiyuk and the 49ers will enter the season with what fantasypros.com calls the 24^th hardest strength of schedule for wide receivers (32^nd is the hardest).  In standard fantasy leagues, he is the 40^th wide receiver off the board and in PPR leagues he is the 41^st (Per Fantasy Pros).  He is going behind DeAndre Hopkins (and his six-game suspension) and Tyler Lockett (without Wilson) but ahead of rookie Treylon Burks and Drake London (both who could end up as the primary target in their respective backfields) and Hunter Renfrow (feeling the Davante Adams slap down). 

Aiyuk is the third option on a team that runs first and asks questions later. Aiyuk ended last season a respectable WR35, especially considering the Kyle Shanahan shenanigans the first seven weeks of the season.  

Temper those expectations, run-first offense, new quarterback under center, Samuel and Kittle on the field and Mike McDaniel gone, it could be a rocky third year for the first-rounder.

Jeudy

This is a conundrum.  There is no doubt that Jeudy has talent.  Also, no secret that he is still feeling the tingling of a groin injury.  And of course, there is the bevy of talent that Wilson will have at his disposal. The Broncos wide receivers not only have Wilson but what fantasypros.com rates as the easiest strength of schedule for wide receivers.  Jeudy is the 32^nd wide receiver off the board in standard leagues and the 29^th in PPR leagues (per Fantasy Pros). 

In standard leagues Jeudy is five picks behind Sutton but a whopping 32 picks ahead of Patrick.  In PPR leagues he is two picks behind Sutton and 35 picks ahead of Patrick (there is some serious Patrick slander happening in standard leagues)!!

Jeudy has the potential to smash his rankings as they currently stand in PPR leagues.  But Jeudy has had the potential since he was drafted in the first round by the Broncos.  For Jeudy your disappointment is tied to your league scoring. 

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