A Dynasty Guy’s Ultimate Guide to Redraft Sleepers: QB and RB

What’s this? I’m writing a redraft article? Yes, but only informed by my dynasty experience. Today I’m going to help you with your redraft sleepers – late-round flyers to take instead of scraping the bottom of the barrel for depth – by giving you some names that are currently mostly only on dynasty managers’ radars.

One disclaimer: These names are most relevant for deep leagues (more than 12 teams and/or larger rosters), but are worth looking into even in shallower ones. A second disclaimer: These names will be mostly rookies, including some lesser-known ones, since those are the players who most often will be on dynasty managers’ radars and not on redrafts managers’ ones.

I’ll be referencing current redraft ADP. While the sample size is small given how early in the redraft process we are, I’ll be using Fantasy Pros composite redraft ADP, which averages several sources. For quarterbacks (who are not affected by the level of PPR scoring), the average is calculated from five sources. For the other positions, a.5 PPR setting will be used since that seems to be the most common in redraft leagues, and that average is from four sources (Yahoo remains, while ESPN is removed).

Quarterback

A sizable majority of dynasty leagues use a Superflex format (one of the flex spots is open to quarterbacks), which essentially makes it a two-quarterback format, as a manager will most often use a quarterback in the Superflex spot. A growing but still small number of redraft leagues use the Superflex setting, so sleepers here might not be super relevant to your leagues. However, being the risk-averse manager I am, when I played redraft, I was in the minority of managers who took a second quarterback even in a 1QB league. So if you are like me in that regard, or you’re in one of the deeper leagues I alluded to above, or even if you want a name to monitor for waivers later, this section is still for you.

Embed from Getty Images

Kenny Pickett – ADP: 202 (17.10 in a 12-team league), QB 27.8

Redraft managers know just about any quality young dynasty quarterback worth mentioning here, so I went with one we all haven’t seen play an NFL snap. On Twitter and on Dynasty Fever, my NFL draft bold prediction/hot take was no QB before 20, and Malik Willis not a first-rounder. I was dismissed. It happened.

As I said many times, including in this profile, Pickett was easily the most NFL-ready of the 2022 rookie QBs. And as I said many times after the draft, such as in this article and this one, the NFL told us what they thought of Pickett with the huge gap in picks between him and the rest of the quarterbacks taken in April’s draft and that his landing spot was very good. All that remains true. Now, Mitch Trubisky is all that is in his way. Trubisky is underrated. He is mobile and suffered under bad coaching and bad offenses in Chicago. A year with the Buffalo coaching staff probably helped him. He will likely be the week 1 starter. However, I think Pickett sees the field sooner than people think and could be a draft-day steal for you. In a Superflex format, you probably want him as your QB3 at first, but I’m fine stashing him as a backup in a deeper 1QB league. He is worth a flyer versus a sixth wide receiver or perhaps even a declining veteran option like Carson Wentz in such a league.

Davis Mills – ADP 174 (15.06), QB 25.0

My legion of fans (lol) know my love for 2021 rookie Mills. It has grown into an inside joke of sorts. I’m under no illusion that Mills is elite, but I feel he is criminally underrated and overlooked. In 2021, while Tyrod Taylor was injured, and then after the team benched Taylor, Mills performed admirably, especially given his supporting cast. The Texans didn’t draft a top QB prospect and re-signed Brandin Cooks and Laremy Tunsil. For me, these mean a vote of confidence in Mills – at least for now. Beyond Cooks, Mills enters 2022 with an improved running back corps (helps the overall offense, draws defenses away from the pass, sets up play-action), underrated rookie wide receiver John Metchie, and second-year pass catchers Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan (both underrated, and both might possibly be in the wide receiver and tight end version of this article). It seems a lot would have to break wrong for Mills to not improve this season. He is a fine option if you wait on QB2 in a Superflex and a very good backup in a deeper 1QB league. I’d take him in such a league ahead of the aforementioned Wentz, Baker Mayfield, or maybe even Jared Goff.

Honorable Mention: Zach Wilson – ADP: 169 (15.01), QB 24.8

Running Back

The running back position in fantasy football, like in the NFL, is evolving. Between the increase in rotational/committee backfields, third-down specialists, more frequent injuries (especially versus other positions), and the growth of the PPR format, running backs are in flux it seems. While an elite workhorse is still worth an early pick for many managers, we have seen the “zero RB” strategy gain traction. We’ve also seen “robust RB” adherents know they need to grab backups and/or lesser-known backs late, especially given the higher rate of injuries at the position. No matter your approach, or how the draft unfolds for you, these names are worth a later-round flyer.

Snoop Conner – ADP 327 (28.03), RB 84

Every time I see/hear this rookie running back’s name, I hear the “Snooooooooopp” from Drop It Like It’s Hot. I can’t help it. Conner may not have that much swag, but he is being severely underestimated going into 2022. Conner was not an elite prospect entering the 2022 NFL Draft. He is not very fast (4.59 40 time) or elusive, and won’t beat guys to the outside, but he is a bruiser. He is decisive, makes good cuts, and finishes well. Conner is a perfect two-down back in a committee and will make a good goal-line back.

What gets Conner featured in this redraft sleepers piece? A good landing spot. (Yes, landing spot matters.) Fact: James Robinson will very likely not be ready Week 1. Fact: Travis Etienne has not seen the field in the NFL, and is not built best for between-the-tackles duties. Fact: Carlos Hyde is gone from Jacksonville, and the remaining competition appears to be Ryquell Armstead. Fact: He may have been a fifth-round pick, but the team traded up for him. Fact: Doug Pederson notoriously uses multiple running backs. Conclusion: Conner has a good chance to produce early and has good touchdown upside.

Chances are you’re not in a 28-round redraft draft, so you’ll be taking Conner above his incredibly low ADP. But you won’t be reaching. Here are some names going well ahead of Conner that I would definitely take him ahead of: Chris Carson (ADP 148, RB 46), Chuba Hubbard (187, RB 62), Trey Sermon (207, RB 60.5), Jerrick McKinnon (243, RB 75.5), Myles Gaskin (238, RB 62), Damien Williams (234, RB 67), Dontrell Hilliard (264, RB 68), and Jaret Patterson (294, RB 73). (By the way, the teamless David Johnson has a higher ADP.) If you’re going five and six deep at running back (and you should be), you need to give Conner’s upside a try, even if just to flip him after a few touchdowns before J-Rob returns.

Keaontay Ingram – ADP 246 (21.06), RB 67

There are a number of other rookie running backs worth talking about in an article like this. Some like Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Hassan Haskins have already gotten some buzz, but others remain off many redraft managers’ radars, including the Cardinals’ Keaontay Ingram.

As a prospect, Ingram wasn’t very highly touted. He’s not super fast (4.53 40 time), and has been dinged for his vision. However, Ingram has NFL running back size (6’0″ 221 lbs.) and a well-rounded skill set. He also changes direction well and has very good contact balance. Among 2022 rookie class running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, he had the second-highest PFF rushing grade last season (91.6). Like Conner, Ingram – a 6th-round pick – landed in a good spot for 2022 production.

The Arizona running back position has produced at least 1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns two years in a row. Chase Edmonds has departed to Miami, leaving only Eno Benjamin as Ingram’s main competition for the number two role behind James Conner. Conner himself had an uncharacteristically durable year in 2021, and an unlikely to repeat a total of 15 rushing touchdowns. Ingram will have stand-alone value, but can fill in that spot RB1 role and goal-line work better than Edmonds did, and better than Benjamin can. All of this points to a good possibility that Ingram can contribute pretty much right away in 2022. He will almost certainly outperform not only his current ADP but also where you wind up taking him.

Like with Snoop, I would take a shot on Ingram before Carson, Hubbard, Sermon, Gaskin, and Damien Williams. I’d also be comfortable selecting him ahead of Rachaad White (159, RB 56) and Kenyan Drake (206, RB 61). I would also not be surprised if Ingram outperforms Khalil Herbert (188, RB 53.5), Darrell Williams (151, RB 54), and Kenneth Gainwell (146, RB 51). Like with Snoop, the bottom line is that Ingram will likely give you the type of bang-for-your-buck value you want in late-round picks.

Honorable Mentions: Brian Robinson – ADP 222 (18.06), RB 57; Chris Evans – ADP 271 (22.07), RB 66

Honorable, But No ADP Data: Abram Smith, Isaih Pacheco, Kennedy Brooks, Jashaun Corbin

So have some fun this redraft season. Roll the dice. Throw a dart. Take some big swings. High upside is what you want out of your late picks. If it doesn’t work out, you can very likely get the production of the vet you skipped later, from the waiver wire.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.