Four Fantasy QBs Primed to Bounce Back in a Big Way in 2022
With the recent influx of Superflex leagues, it’s more important than ever to capitalize on QBs who might normally go undrafted in regular, 1QB leagues. Doing this allows you to flesh out your roster, allowing you to grab a few potential top-10 RBs, WRs, or TEs before targeting a second QB. While formulating this list, I’m going to look at a few factors: rookie QBs looking to make a second-year leap in production, new coaching staffs or offensive coordinators, improved offensive lines, and added weapons at skill positions.
Historically, the sophomore season for QBs is when they often find their groove, adjust to the league, and turn the flashes shown in their rookie seasons into a full year of solid, consistent QB play. A few recent examples are Joe Burrow rebounding after a season-ending injury in his rookie season, to being the most efficient passer in the league, according to PFF.
There is also Lamar Jackson, who in his rookie season only completed 58% of his passes, and finished with a QB rating of 84.5, according to FantasyPros. In his second season, Jackson went on to complete over 66% of passes and threw 36 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions with a QB rating of 113.3. This goes to show that given the right player and upside, large leaps can be made in year two. Here are a few second-year QBs I like to have a bounce-back season.
Embed from Getty ImagesTrevor Lawrence
To be blunt, Trevor Lawrence was just a bad quarterback in his rookie season, which in all fairness was not all his fault as the Jaguars were awful as a team. Lawrence was consistently missing easy throws and didn’t show the accuracy or intangibles that we saw from him when he won the Heisman trophy at Clemson. While some of this falls on Lawrence, a lot of the blame for the Jaguars’ ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball is due to Urban Meyer, who was arguably one of the worst coaches in NFL history.
It didn’t help that the Jaguars faced a plethora of injuries to key players, such as Travis Etienne, DJ Chark, and James Robinson. The Doug Pederson hire should do nothing but boost the passing offense in Jacksonville. During Pederson’s five-year tenure in Philadelphia, his offense finished outside of the top 10 only once.
Not only did the Jaguars upgrade the head coach, but they also bolstered the roster in a few other spots. Last year, Jacksonville’s offensive line ranked 24th according to PFF, and a rookie was the highest-rated lineman. The line should vastly improve with a new scheme and the signing of veteran Brandon Scherff.
With an improved offensive line, paired with Etienne and Robinson likely to be healthy, the Jaguars should be able to establish some semblance of a run game, with Etienne being an excellent dump-off option for Lawrence as well. If the Jaguars can stay healthy under Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence instantly becomes one of my favorite candidates for a breakout in 2022.
Zach Wilson
The Jets are one of the most improved offenses, adding rookies Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the draft, signing OG Laken Tomlinson, and adding two TEs who have proven to be good pass-catchers in CJ Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. Zach Wilson struggled greatly in 2021 and often showed signs that he wasn’t quite ready to be a starter as a rookie. It wasn’t all Zach Wilson’s fault for the Jets being near the bottom of the league in total offense.
They faced injuries throughout the year to key players such as Mekhi Becton, Connor McGovern, and George Fant on the offensive line, as well as Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, and Zach Wilson himself. This doesn’t completely excuse Wilson from blame, but it shouldn’t fall solely on his shoulders. That being said, he did have a habit of holding on to the ball for too long in certain situations, thus taking more sacks than necessary. That should be a fairly easy adjustment in his second season, and will greatly improve his overall play.
Already in 2022, Wilson is drawing praise through mini-camps and even before camp started for having a better work ethic and showing leadership by working with his receivers off-site in Miami. It is also reported that he came into camp weighing over 220 pounds when he finished last year at 208 pounds. It might not be much, but the muscle gain paired with his initiative to put in work when it isn’t mandatory shows a leap in maturity for the young QB.
With an above-average offensive line and two good backs, the Jets should be able to run the ball efficiently, thus setting up better opportunities for play action and big plays in the passing game. The 2022 Jets will only go as far as Zach Wilson will carry them, and with their improvements around him, I think he’s destined to exceed his ADP of QB24 by a considerable margin.
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Fields
The Bears’ passing attack under Matt Nagy was anemic at best. In 2021, the Bears averaged only 188.6 passing yards per game, and only scored 18.3 points per game. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise seeing how since 2018, Matt Nagy’s offense has failed to finish within the top-20 in offensive yards in a season. The Bears recently hired Matt Eberflus as Head Coach and Luke Getsy as the Offensive Coordinator. The Getsy hiring should be a great move for the Bears since he has coached quarterbacks during his tenure with Green Bay.
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The narrative going around is that Fields doesn’t have much improvement to his situation, but I would rush to argue otherwise. I think the impact of Matt Nagy and his play-calling was immense and was one of the main factors in Justin Fields’ failed rookie season. This does not take the blame completely off his shoulders, as he still threw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (7).
While Fields definitely underperformed last season, there was also a great deal of flashes of his potential. According to FantasyPros, over the last four full games, Fields was a top-12 quarterback averaging 21.7 points per game and rushing for 56 yards per game. Fields possess elite athleticism and has proven to be an accurate passer with a cannon for an arm at Ohio State. According to PFF, Fields was the most accurate college passer of the PFF college era (2014-present).
The offensive line leaves much to be desired, but with smart, innovative play-calling mixed with a solid run game and more designed read option or draw plays, the Bears offense should be poised for improvement. There are enough weapons in the passing game with the impending breakout of Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney, and the signing of Byron Pringle to aid Fields in his quest to prove himself.
It’s also impossible to ignore the rushing upside that Fields possesses. In his rookie season, he averaged 35 rushing yards per game. The other three rookie quarterbacks to do this were Josh Allen, Robert Griffin III, and Cam Newton. All three players went on to finish as top-12 quarterbacks in their sophomore season. The sky is the limit for Fields.
Embed from Getty ImagesMatt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the clear outlier on the list. He is a former MVP and entering his 15th season as a professional. That being said, he is the benefactor of a massive upgrade in situation. The Falcons’ offense in 2021 ranked 29th out of 32 teams in offensive yards per game. There are a few different factors that contributed to a down year for the signal caller. The offensive line allowed pressure at the sixth highest rate (40%) according to PFF.
The issues only compounded with the loss of Calvin Ridley and the off-season signing of Mike Davis ultimately not working out. Despite the lack of help and no time to throw the ball, Matt Ryan still proved he can play at a high level. According to PFF, Ryan ranked 12th in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, 9th in throwing on early downs, and 2nd in hitting intermediate targets.
The Colts will provide Ryan a vastly improved offensive line from his time in Atlanta and a Frank Reich system that relies heavily on running the ball and using screen passes to get the ball in the hands of talented backs. Not only will the offensive line be an improvement, but Ryan is also walking into the second-best run game in the league behind feature-back Jonathan Taylor. Reports out of the Colts’ mini-camp have been full of positive signs, citing that Ryan is bringing intensity and urgency that the Colts have yet to see, urging them to work quicker between snaps.
With this added intensity and urgency, as well as an improved offensive line and top-5 run game, there should be ample opportunities for Ryan to thrive in both the play-action passing game, as well as throwing deep passes to better receiving options in Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and rookie Alec Pierce. There has been some talk recently questioning Matt Ryan’s ability to push the ball down the field. Last season Matt Ryan proved to be a much better deep passer than critics are giving him credit for.
According to NFL.com, on deep throws, Ryan had a 3:1 TD to INT ratio, a 107.7 passer rating, and completed 47.6% of passes when he was only expected to complete 29.9% (xCOMP). Matt Ryan is a much better quarterback than Carson Wentz, and is in line for a huge improvement upon his 2021 numbers, especially since he is being drafted as the 22nd QB off the board in fantasy.
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