Breaking Down Week Three’s Most Baffling Bets

Week Three brings us four contests with point spreads of two or less. Let’s see if we can figure out which way to bet so you can spice up those parlays!

SPOILER ALERT: I’M CALLING ALL FOUR GAMES UPSETS THIS WEEK!!! Can you say $$$?!

San Francisco @ Denver

You should know by now that I love a good upset. While everything in me wants to go with the house on this one, I cannot believe that Russell Wilson will go 0-3; something he’s never done in his career. 

Last season, the playoff 49ers lost both games to the Wilson-led Seahawks. Denver’s defense hasn’t faced an offensive powerhouse this season, but still, they’ve yet to give up more than 253 total yards! Their top-ten run defense will stifle Jeff Wilson despite Justin Simmons’ absence and force San Francisco to beat them through the air. Jimmy Garoppolo has only topped 300 passing yards once in his last 14 games except for an OT contest Week 18 last season; and those were games George Kittle suited up for!

The 49ers defense is dangerous in theory but Geno Smith managed to support a 100+ yard receiver against them last week and although they rank in the top five in least rushing yards per game allowed thus far, that’s been against a couple measly offensive lines. Hapless Hackett jokes aside, Denver ranks in the top ten in total yards per game, an average of 391. I’m taking them on the money line this week. The under (44.5) looks fairly safe in this game with these stout defenses.

Atlanta @ Seattle

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Seeing the Atlanta @ Seattle odds makes me want to respond with the Jack Nicholson meme, unshaven and manically nodding his head in “yes” agreement. I’m all over Atlanta with points (+1) and the over (42). The point total has me scratching my head considering these are two of the worst defenses right now in terms of points and yards yielded. Seattle’s defensive front is just alright but both secondaries are paltry. Cordarelle Patterson, Drake London, and, yes, Kyle Pitts should put up monster games against the Seahawks, who are drowning without Jamal Adams.

While Geno Smith isn’t bad, his conservative mediocrity isn’t doing anything special for his talented receivers and Seattle can’t use a tight end properly to save their lives. The only reason Seattle is favored here is the obvious home field, 12^th man mumbo jumbo, advantage. Marcus Mariota has played in Seattle once before and the booming crowd didn’t faze him much with a 225-yard passing, two passing touchdown victory. 

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay

There was a time when the Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady contest would be the highlight of the NFL week, but really, any other one of the afternoon slate’s games are more enticing to me than this one. In my opinion, this is the hardest game to call this week, and I’m going to stick it to the man with another upset bet here. Why? It seems to me that the only dependable offensive player the Bucs have is Leonard Fournette. And while the Packers have been steamrolled by running backs thus far, they’re not going to have a Justin Jefferson or a mobile quarterback to focus on this game. Tampa Bay is just plain hobbled, including in their offensive and defensive lines. 

The Packers have their issues in the health department as well, but they have two times the rushing attack than that of the Bucs. What’s that? Teams don’t run against Tampa? Well, last week a Kamara-less Saints backfield put up 100 yards on them. I’m almost excited to see what Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion can do. Oh, and if you can find a prop on Robert Tonyan this week, take it. He scores. 

Dallas @ New York Giants

Can we go four for four with the upsets? YES. Why not when the underdog Cowboys are killing opposing quarterbacks and the Giants’ offensive line can’t protect theirs? Micah Parsons leads the league already with four sacks on the season.

Also, Danny Dimes disappoints against divisional rival New York; he’s only had one win against them in his career. Cooper Rush and CeeDee Lamb were intriguing last week, sparking more confidence than Jones and any of his receivers. Saquon Barkley will have a decent game too, but I don’t think he’s enough to carry the Giants through this one. 

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