The Best “No House Advantage” Prop Bets, Week 3

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I went 2-and-2 last week. Let’s get to my favorite props for this week…

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 302.5 Passing Yards

Mahomes has only gone over 300 passing yards four times over his last 16 games. I’d expect the Colts to run the ball and attempt to shorten the game to keep Mahomes off the field, and because of this, I think Mahomes won’t go over 300 yards this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 Receptions

This might be the easiest pick of the week. St. Brown has eight straight games with eight or more receptions. This game is tied for the highest game total on the slate at 52.5 points and with the Lions’ defense being as bad as it is, they will have to pass it to keep up with the Vikings’ offense.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 4.5 Receptions

McCaffrey has yet to hit this mark this season with back-to-back four-catch games, but I expect the Panthers to start to lean a little more heavily on him as they try to get their first victory of the season. The Saints have a good defense, so I expect Bake Mayfield to check it down more often than he has in the first two games.

Jaylen Waddle OVER 5.5 Receptions

The Bills are one of the best offenses in the league, and the Dolphins are going to need to score to keep pace. To do that, they will need to throw it a ton to their top two receivers in Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa threw it 50 times last week in a comeback victory against the Ravens, and I’d expect his pass attempts to approach that mark again.