NFL 2022 Week 10 The Better Than a “Start/Sit Article” Start/Sit Article

It is Week10, and Week9 was incredible. The New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills, and the Las Vegas Raiders once again squandered a double-digit lead.

This week there are four teams on a bye. The teams are the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and the New York Jets. Remember also that the Seattle Seahawks play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Germany. That game will be at 730am mountain time, so set your lineup accordingly.

Chasing Cole Kmet’s points isn’t the worst, as his next two games are against the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons. The Lions are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the tight end position (8.9), and the Falcons are the 10^th most fantasy points to the position (7.9). Count on Joe Mixon making your fantasy dreams while Ja’Marr Chase is out.

Fantasy Pros Week 9 Leaders PPR

QUARTERBACKS

1. Justin Fields, 42.72 fantasy points v Miami
2. Patrick Mahomes, 35.14 fantasy points v Tennessee
3. Josh Allen, 26.80 fantasy points v New York Jets
4. Tua Tagovailoa, 24.08 fantasy points v Chicago
5. Geno Smith, 21.80 fantasy points v Arizona
6. Jalen Hurts, 20.02 fantasy points v Houston
7. Joe Burrow, 19.14 fantasy points v Carolina

RUNNING BACKS

1. Joe Mixon, 55.10 fantasy points v Carolina
2. Kenneth Walker III, 27.90 fantasy points v Arizona
3. Travis Etienne Jr., 26.60 fantasy points v Las Vegas Raiders
4. Kenyan Drake, 24.90 fantasy points v New Orleans Saints
5. Austin Ekeler, 24.10 fantasy points v Atlanta
6. Derrick Henry, 23.50 fantasy points v Kansas City Chiefs
7. Cordarrelle Patterson, 18.30 fantasy points v Los Angeles Chargers

WIDE RECEIVER

1. Davante Adams, 36.60 fantasy points v Jacksonville
2. Tyreek Hill, 27.30 fantasy points v Chicago
3. Cooper Kupp, 26.80 fantasy points v Tampa Bay
4. Justin Jefferson, 25.50 fantasy points v Washington
5. Christian Kirk, 21.60 fantasy points v Las Vegas Raiders
6. Mecole Hardman, 19.90 fantasy points v Tennessee
7. Jaylen Waddle, 19.50 fantasy points v Chicago

TIGHT ENDS

1. Dallas Goedert, 24.0 fantasy points v Houston
2. Cole Kmet, 22.0 fantasy points v Miami
3. Travis Kelce, 20.6 fantasy points v Tennessee
4. Cade Otton, 17.8 fantasy points v Los Angeles Rams
5. TJ Hockenson, 16.0 fantasy points v Washington
6. Zach Ertz, 15.0 fantasy points v Seattle
7. Noah Fant, 14.6 fantasy points v Arizona

So, let’s see who our bye week/injury replacements for this week will be. Or you are just who we will put in for fun and a splash play.

QUARTERBACKS

MUST START

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears v Detroit Lions

I’m not sure why I am still telling you. Fields is a “must start,” but here we are. In Fields’ last four games, he has rushed for 408 yards, the fourth-highest total in the league in any position. In his last six games, Fields has averaged 22.9 fantasy points.

And since this is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of league, he rushed for 178 yards, the most by a quarterback EVER, and he passed for 123 yards with three passing touchdowns.

This week he plays the Detroit Lions (not going to lie, I would love this game more if it were played in Detroit), who have surrendered the most yards per game (417.3) and allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (20.95).

SHOULD START

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins v Cleveland Browns

Since returning from his concussion, Tagovailoa is (has been?) a must-start. In his past two games, he has thrown for 302 and 382 yards and three touchdowns in each game.

The Browns’ defense is better against the pass, allowing 208.3 average passing yards per game (15^th) than the run. The Browns are 22^nd against the run giving up 123.1 average rushing yards per game. But this is just what the Dolphins’ offense is built to exploit. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson utilize the run game to open it up for the formidable weapons in the passing game.

When you have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, is there any doubt that the person throwing them the ball should start?

MEH

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

This game has the highest implied total of the week (50.5), with the Chiefs favored by -9.5. The Chiefs allow the ninth-most passing yards per game (249.5), while the Jaguars give up the 11^th-most passing yards per game (238.3).

We know that Lawrence is going to have to put up points. Malik Willis is the only quarterback who has not put up at least two touchdowns against the Chiefs.

Lawrence isn’t the most consistent quarterback, so you are not sure what you will get from week to week. In his last three games, his completion percentage went from 51.2% to 58.1% to 80.6%. His yards per attempt waffled from 7.2 to 4.3, back to 7.6. His fantasy scoring has from 6.7 (Week 4 v Philly) to 25.2 (Week3 v Los Angeles Chargers) to 16.7 last week against the Raiders.

Hope is somewhat buoyed as the Chiefs are giving up an average of 19.5 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions.

LONG SHOT

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

This is a cautionary tale for Murray and DeAndre Hopkins (see below). But first things first, monitor Murray’s hamstring injury as he did not practice Wednesday with the injury.

Now, Murray is the leading rusher for the Cardinals this year. He has rushed for 359 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Sounds good, except when you realize his last three games, he has gained 60, 36, and 30 rushing yards. He has also passed for 175, 326, and 204 passing yards in those games, with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

He has been decidedly better with Hopkins on the field. Murray has had 26.6 and 19.0 fantasy points in his last two games with Hopkins.

Now for the bad, the Rams look like a team in flux (because they are), but their defense is legit. They allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position (14). And opposing quarterbacks have only nine passing touchdowns and five interceptions while accumulating only 84 rushing yards against them.

In addition, this game has one of the lowest implied totals at 41.5, with the Rams -2.5-point favorite. I’m no math whiz, but I believe that means the powers that predict Arizona to score 8.25 points.

RUNNING BACKS

MUST START

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

I am not sure what is going on with D’Andre Swift, but even at the beginning of the season, a healthy Swift did not deter Williams.

Williams has 18 carries inside the 10-yard line. That is while only being on the field for 63.8% of the offensive snaps. Last week against Green Bay, he had 24 carries, five of which were in the red zone.

The Bears have allowed 39 touches in the red zone this season while giving up the third-most rushing touchdowns. Both of those are right in Williams’s wheelhouse.

SHOULD START

D’Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers v Atlanta Falcons

This was a rematch from Week8 when we discovered all the possibilities of Foreman. Do you remember when he rushed for three touchdowns and 118 yards?

There is talk that Chuba Hubbard could return for this game, but don’t fret. The Panthers need this win to get the dirty taste of last week’s blowout out of their mouths. That should mean leaning on the man who wrecked the team two weeks ago.

And, of course, the Falcons are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the running back position. 32.4 a game is pretty delicious.

MEH

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders

What is the name of Johnny Walker Blue going on in Indiana? First, the offensive coordinator gets fired, then Sam Ehlinger is named the starting quarterback for infinity. The head coach gets fired, Jeff Saturday gets named head coach (yep, that Jeff Saturday) and now Parks Frazier is the new offensive play caller.

The good is that the Raiders have allowed 28.8 fantasy points per game to the running back position. The bad is that Taylor is coming off an ankle injury, capping his explosiveness behind a suspect offensive line. The ugly is, well, everything else about the Indianapolis Colts presently.

LONG SHOT

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers v New Orleans Saints

Honestly, he is probably a sit candidate, but are you going to sit someone that costs you so much draft capital?

Also, Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, so you hope that most…some…a few of the problems have been corrected.

Harris is currently averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. He has a 2.8% breakaway run rate (42^nd), 2.16 yards created per touch (44^th), and his EPA (expected points added) is -34.3 (141^st).

None of that is good; worse, Jaylen Warren is creeping up on him.

Additionally, Warren is averaging 5.9 yards per touch with +8.2 EPA. Yes, on fewer carries, but I’m just saying.

WIDE RECEIVERS

MUST START

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Close your eyes and think back to the Pittsburgh v Buffalo Bills game. Do you see Gabe Davis running down the field for a 99-yard touchdown? Does it bring you sadness or joy? Now wake up!

Olave has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game. Olave has 1062 air yards (2^nd), 41.4% air yards share (4^th), and a 14.8 average depth of target (5^th) with Andy Dalton!! And led the team in targets (9), catches (6), and receiving yards (71) on ESPN Monday Night Football last week.

The Steelers have given up the fifth-most yards on passes of 20-plus air yards allowing a league-high six touchdowns on said passes. They also give up the most fantasy points to receivers, 45.8 per game this season.

SHOULD START

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Believing in Kirk has been a mini roller coaster ride this season. But I feel like this might just be the up portion of the ride. Last week he had a 31% target share and a 37% air yard share. He was targeted nine times for eight receptions, 76 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

For the same reason you are playing Lawrence, you are playing Kirk. Plus, the Chiefs are giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to the wide receivers this season (36.4), and that doesn’t hurt the analysis.

MEH

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

This is less about Jeudy and more about his quarterback and head coach. First, let’s talk about Jeudy. Jeudy owns a 20.8% target share and a 24.3% air yard share. In his last two games, he has been on the field for 88% and 83.3% of the offensive snaps. Jeudy has 11 and seven targets in those games finishing both with double-digit fantasy points.

Now for the competition, the Titans have allowed 40.5 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. On passes of 20-plus air yards, they have given up 674 yards (most in NFL) while also allowing a 142.6 passer rating, 17 completions, and four touchdowns on those passes.

And now for the quarterback,  Russell Wilson has 14.5 points per game, is 18^th in yards (1694), and has six touchdowns for the season. He is also 26^th in EPA+CPOE composite, 21^st in EPA per play, and 31^st in success rate.

So, the wide receiver is good, the matchup is great, and the quarterback is mediocre. Meh.

LONG SHOT

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

We will make this short and sweet; you will not sit Hopkins after what you have seen. But remember that Hopkins has struggled against the Rams. Since being a wide receiver with the Cardinals, he has not had a game with more than 67 receiving yards. Also, the Rams have held him to an average of 10.7 fantasy points per reception in four games.

Now you also have to contend with his quarterback being hobbled by an injured hamstring.

 You aren’t going to sit him but temper your expectations.

“And I will strike upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.” ~ Pulp Fiction

It’s good to have friends. Play nice.

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