Darnell Washington is BIG. His Fantasy Upside Could Be, Too.

Pros

For better or for worse, I will forever be connected to Jelani Woods. I touted him as a “my guy” even prior to his standout performance at the 2022 NFL Combine. I acknowledged he was raw and needed a lot of work on his blocking, but still, many folks thought I was way off-base. Woods flashed in 2022, but the jury is still out on whether or not I was right. Well, imagine if Jelani Woods was a pro-ready blocker with perhaps better hands already as a rookie, and you kind of have one of my 2023 “my guys” – Darnell Washington.

Washington isn’t too well-known among dynasty managers who don’t watch much college football and/or don’t play much devy, but he should be on your radar for rookie drafts. Some people are presuming he will just be “an extra tackle” who will barely catch passes, and I think they are mistaken.

Washington was a 5-star recruit out of high school but didn’t wow us with college production. When we factor in 1. Georgia likes to run the ball at an above-average rate; 2. His blocking skills meant he’d be used that way on run plays and just run fewer routes overall, and; 3. Washington was playing with an elite college tight end on his team, Brock Bowers, it gives us some better context for that lack of production. When given the opportunity to flash, he looked very good.

Obviously, Washington’s size stands out, but he is also athletic for a big man like Woods is. He gets off the line of scrimmage well and has good ball skills. Washington uses his body well to position himself versus defenders covering him and holds the ball well through contact.

From an analytics perspective, there are many things to like about Washington. He easily crosses the size thresholds and is an early declare who will be 21 on draft day. His projected NFL draft capital of round 2 and his career average yards per reception of 18.44 meet the marks for those categories. Jay Stein uses a 4.71 for a tight end 40 time threshold and currently estimates Washington’s 4.69, which would cross the threshold and give him a weight-adjusted speed score of 112 and height-adjusted speed score of 129, both very good numbers. So Washington seems to check the athleticism box as well. For reference, Jelani Woods’ “haven’t seen a tight end that fast at his size in a long time” 40-yard dash mark was 4.61.

Cons

While it is fair to give Washington’s lower production the context it deserves, folks who look for elite production from a tight end prospect won’t find it with him and will ding him for that. I tend to say “case by case basis” with the “production vs. projection” issue, but I can understand some other people don’t.

While Washington’s size and athleticism are very good and he wins with those traits, he is not a very good route runner, and the type of NFL versatility he could have will demand he refines that part of his game.

Another possible concern for Washington is actually the excellent blocking ability. As Matt Hicks has discussed, this strength in his game may lead to his NFL team wanting to use him so much as a blocker that it slows his production and fantasy breakout. While I agree with Matt and others that eventually Washington will be used well as a pass catcher, this concern is valid, and we have to take into account how much the blocking prowess will be baked into his real-life draft capital. Furthermore, guys as tall as Washington can sometimes lose leverage when blocking in the NFL.

From an analytics perspective, Washington has very few flaws. Obviously, his overall production isn’t very good. His receiving yards per team pass attempt never broke 0.92, and his best season’s dominator rating was only 8%. I’ve contextualized this lack of overall production above, but also did not dismiss it as a concern. Either way, those two metrics are less important for tight ends than they are for other positions and less important than the yards per reception metric that he meets with ease.

Summary

Darnell Washington is a massive tight end prospect with more fantasy upside than many people think. He seems like a lock for day 2 draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft (and I’ve even seen him mocked in the late first round). Most dynasty leagues use a tight end premium now, and while I’ve seen naysayers pick Washington as late as the fourth round, even in that format, I’d be comfortable taking him much earlier if I like the landing spot because I believe in his upside.

The Texans (34th and overall), Panthers (40th and 62nd), Packers (46th and 79th), Commanders (48th), Lions (49th and 56th), Dolphins (52nd and 78th), Chargers (55th), and Bengals (61st) all seem like good fits. If the Cowboys (59th) move on from Dalton Schultz and don’t feel comfortable with Jason Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot as their top options, they could be a suitor as well.

Ideal Role: mostly blocking at first, eventual versatile NFL TE1

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: mid-2nd to mid-3rd

Player Comp: Evan Engram, Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods