Tank Bigsby: In Defense of a Fallen Devy Darling
Tank Bigsby
Auburn Running Back 6’0″ 213
2022 Stats: (rushing) 179 att 970 yds 5.4 ypc 10 td; (receiving) 30 rec 180 yds 6.0 ypr 0 td
Pros
Tank Bigsby has been a “devy darling” for a while. Unfortunately, we usually see that label used now when someone loses steam as a prospect as they approach the NFL draft. Bigsby’s production took a dip (adjusted for age and experience) after a very impressive freshman season, and some observers have soured on him as a prospect. There are concerns with Tank for sure, but I’m a believer; I think Bigsby will be a “better in NFL than college” player and pay off for dynasty managers.
Bigsby was a four-star recruit out of high school. He is a tough runner with good contact balance but also has above-average speed. He can beat defenders to the edge and gain yardage in chunks once in the second level. Bigsby has underrated footwork and agility. His 2022 PFF elusiveness grade of 137 ranked sixth among all 2023-eligible running backs with at least 100 rush attempts. Among that same group, he ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.16) and eleventh in missed tackles forced, and had the eighth overall run grade.
What critics such as Brandon Lejeune and Dallas Hyder bring up most with Bigsby is his vision and patience. They point out Tank rushing on plays but also being too patient and lacking urgency as well as not seeing the field well enough. Others, including Matt Hicks, Christian Williams, Kevin Coleman, and the Dynasty Rewind crew (and I’ll add myself to the list) argue Tank did the best he could in spite of both the coaching/scheming and offensive line at Auburn being lacking. Producing as much as he did in those circumstances is admirable, and if he can land somewhere with improvements in those external factors, Tank could thrive.
Additionally, while Auburn didn’t feature him much as a receiver nor ask him to run a variety of routes, Bigsby’s receiving skills are a bit underrated, and it’s a part of his game that could grow well on the right NFL team. In fact, his team receptions share in 2022 was 18.9%, an elite number for a running back. Tank has three-down workhorse well within his range of outcomes.
From an analytics perspective, the results for Bigsby are mixed but show some positives. He is an early declare. His BMI is a tick below the desired threshold of 29.0 at 28.9, but his weight easily checks that box. Bigsby’s current projected round 3 NFL selection checks the draft capital box. Jay Stein’s 40-time estimate for Tank of 4.48 would easily cross the 4.6 threshold and would give him a weight-adjusted speed score of 106, another check. Additionally, the aforementioned 2022 receptions share and his max dominator rating of 26% in 2021 also exceed common analytic minimum standards.
Cons
While I and others are willing to give Bigsby somewhat of a pass on the vision, patience, and production shortcomings, the fact remains he seems at times to have regressed since his freshman season and could have to unlearn and re-learn some habits now. While Tank is deceptively elusive, he still welcomes contact too much at times, opting to try to go through defenders instead of around them perhaps too often. Other criticisms of Bigsby include his lack of top-end speed and his lower body strength not matching what we’d want from a back his size and with his running style.
From an analytics perspective, the main shortcomings Bigsby has are in his production metrics. His rushing yards over expectation numbers were negative in years 2 and 3, and his dominator rating went down from year 2 to year 3. Also, his career yards per attempt of 5.4 is easily below the desired 6.0 mark, a number he only hit in year 1.
Summary
Tank Bigsby is another divisive running back prospect in this 2023 class. There is definitely the possibility that he doesn’t get day 2 draft capital in the 2023 NFL Draft and/or he doesn’t pan out in the NFL. At the moment, I’m betting on positive outcomes on both fronts. I believe in the right situation, Tank will show what is truly capable of overall, and develop as a receiver more specifically.
While NFL coaching staffs are increasingly flexible in order to beat a variety of defensive schemes and shape an offense around the talent they have on the roster, Bigsby would likely do best on a team that uses mostly zone blocking in their rushing, as most of his college snaps were in that scheme.
Based on team need, likely draft capital, and zone preference, the Bears (65th overall), Dolphins (52nd, 78th, and 85th), Bills (60th and 92nd), and Chargers (55th and 86th) seem like good fits. If the Raiders (71st), Cowboys (59th and 91st), and Eagles (63rd and 95th) move on from their big-name free-agent running backs, or if the Bengals (61st and 92nd) cut ties with Joe Mixon, they would also be in the mix. And I wouldn’t count out the Broncos (68th, 69th, and 109th) who will almost certainly cut Chase Edmonds and won’t have much besides Javonte Williams who is returning from a major knee injury.
Ideal Role: eventual 1A in a committee, three-down workhorse upside
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2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 2nd round
Player Comp: Josh Jacobs; a smaller Brian Robinson if the receiving doesn’t pan out, a potential Tony Pollard if it does
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