The Obsession of the Perfect Dynasty Strategy (Part 2)

It is that time of year for dynasty players. The Playoffs have ended, and it is time for the evaluation of rookies and startups. The diversity of leagues and settings leads to many strategies for navigating your start-up. First, is it Superflex, Devy, One QB, IDP, or All 22? And then is it a snake draft, 3RR, Dispersal, or Auction? I have participated in one of those and will provide you with my strategy in this series of articles. And give me insight as to whether there is a “Perfect Dynasty Strategy” or it is just reacting to the behaviors of your league mates. And hopefully provide insight into any mistakes I have made and how I would fix them.

The Devy Dilemma

Leagues Winners Devy League

12 Team Superflex Devy League with separate Devy and Rookie Drafts with Kickers as placeholders

Devy is one of the faster-growing types of Dynasty leagues. It involves drafting college players either while still in college or as they are Seniors in high school depending on the league’s settings. They are then on your taxi squad until they reach the NFL. This is opposed to C2C where there are separate NFL and College rosters and you compete against your league mates in both disciplines. It is also harder to rebuild as most of the high-value assets are already on a roster. After the draft, my roster looked like this.

The Devy assets on the team as they are currently represented by placeholders are as follows:

USC QB Caleb Williams

Clemson QB Cade Klubnik

UNC QB Drake Maye

USC QB Malachi Nelson

Clemson RB Will Shipley

PSU RB Nicholas Singleton

Michigan RB Blake Corum

OSU WR Emeka Egbuka

Mizzou WR Luther Burden

Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

TE Duce Robinson

The Devy Dilemma

So as you can see I invested heavily in Devy within the draft. Coming into the draft I had the 12th position so I had the initial plan to draft the 1.01 in both the Rookie and Devy drafts and start my team with Bijan and Caleb Williams. The goal was a long-term success while sacrificing the first year or two while my team builds around its present core. This is a risky strategy as players in College don’t always translate the pros in the ways we would expect. But provides maximum upside as other teams will have fewer chances to reload on assets as their teams get older and the assets depreciate.

However, Bijan went 1 spot ahead of me so I drafted Caleb Williams and Ceedee Lamb at the turn. Lamb is my Dynasty WR3 and fits in the timeline with my team better than the older or injured QB prospects at that spot. The real choice there is Ceedee Lamb or Marvin Harrison Jr as he is the Devy 1.02. I chose Lamb due to its proven production. In a situation where you know you will likely not be competitive for a year or two you want to stay away from RBs as it is likely they will not fit the timeline of the team you are constructing.

All In on the Future

In the 3/4 turn, I picked one Devy(Drake Maye) and the 1.03 Rookie Pick which will either be Stroud or Bryce Young. However, with a team like this, I will consider Anthony Richardson if available because of the upside and not needing to win immediately. And with the strategy to compete in 2025, I simply worried about collecting valuable assets for the future and worried less about roster construction.

Unbalanced rosters will give the appearance of a lack of leverage when it comes to trading those assets away. But it will still come down to a person’s belief in that player and while one person may try to use the leverage that you can’t start 5 QBs there will be another desperate to win who will trade fair value.

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Leaning in on the Strategy

For my next selection at the 5/6 Turn, I had seen the shift away from the early Rookie and Devy frenzy as some of the owners believed there was a finite number of difference-making prospects in those pools worthy of early selections. People are also in most start-ups hesitant to completely give up in a year. So I grabbed another Devy selection that turned into Emeka Egbuka. Also drafted Javonte Williams as a high upside play who may not play in 2023 but will likely regain value as he returns to the field.

The next selections were also both Devy as I believe a lot of owners were only enamored with the top 4 prospects of Williams, MHJ, Maye, and Bowers. With my next selections, I selected Cade Klubnik and Nicholas Singleton. It was my goal to get my Top QB prospect every draft class. This gives me trade assets every spring to retool my roster as I need to. And Egbuka is a fantastic prospect who has been overshadowed by an excellent amount of talent at Ohio State over the past few years.

The USC QB Pipeline

As the other owners continued to fade Devy I selected Will Shipley and Malachi Nelson. Shipley provides me with a dynamic RB that fits the competitive window of my team. And Nelson is my top-rated QB of his class above Dante Moore and the much-heralded Arch Manning. This is the guy that Lincoln Riley chose to be the eventual successor to Caleb Williams.

He will sit for a year and learn but Lincoln Riley has a proven track record with QBs and I’m buying in on the talent even if he will sit on my taxi squad for 3 years. This consistent selection of Devy players likely confused my league mates. And would likely cause them going forward to select Devy players earlier than they had expected.

Exhausting all the Devy Players I had in that tier I selected the 2.04 which will likely be an RB given the depth of this class. Either Tyjae Spears or Sean Tucker would fit nicely there. Desmond Ridder who I believe will be the starting QB for the Falcons in 2023 and possibly beyond. To get a starting QB in the 12th round is a tremendous value. Ridder is probably one of the more overlooked dynasty assets at the moment. Someone I have picked up in most of my start-ups this year.

Buying on underutilized Talent

My next two selections were guys whose talent I believe in but due to injuries or being behind franchise players haven’t shown it yet. Giants WR Wandale Robinson and Vikings RB Alexander Mattison. Both will have larger roles and will likely provide excellent trade value in season. For a team with a window of a few years away, this is my go-to strategy. Package a few of these talents mid-season for Devy talent as owners compete for playoff position.

I did the same thing on the Devy side selecting Luther Burden from Mizzou. And Ja’Tavion Sanders from Texas. Both have immense talent. Sanders has been utilized better than Burden as I believe Burden has 1st round Rookie draft potential when he comes out. Which far outweighs the upside of the NFL players at this point in the draft. Also, the Tight End Premium nature of the league made Sanders more valuable.

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Late-Round Values: Getting Prospects you Believe in

Once I had reached the 18th round I began looking at high-upside backup QBs. I then drafted Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, and Matt Corral. This was before the Panthers traded up to 1st overall so likely Corral’s value had decreased from then. But Willis and Huntley are buy-lows for me at the moment. Huntley would require a specific offense to succeed. And Willis showed last year that he still isn’t ready. However, the rushing upside for both would make them viable starters if given the opportunity.

Similarly, for WR I drafted KJ Hamler and Jalen Tolbert. Given the trade buzz surrounding Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, I believe Hamler may have a significant role for the Broncos out of the slot. And Tolbert was before the Cowboys trading for Brandin Cooks but given the draft capital on Tolbert, I don’t believe the Cowboys will be eager to give up on him. And he could see a significant snap share in 2023.

Reflections and Thoughts on the Draft

Leaning further in on my strategy than I expected. The belief is my Devy core is an extremely valuable set of prospects. I probably given roster construction and scoring settings should’ve drafted Brock Bowers over Drake Maye at Devy 1.03. I will still have opportunities to trade for him but likely at a higher price than at a start-up.

Also probably should’ve gone MHJ over Lamb. But at the time it seemed a steep price. My team will almost certainly be the 1.01 in 2024 which will give me the chance to select Dylan Raoila if he is the QB1 of that class or draft someone who breaks out who wasn’t selected yet.

The Javonte Williams selection in hindsight also seems unwise given what we know now. Christian Watson would’ve likely been the selection otherwise.

Overall I stuck to my strategy and have a team that will be extremely competitive granted that the league lasts more than 2 years.

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