It is the “off-season,” so time to evaluate the offenses. We are going to start with the AFC East.
Last season the AFC East had three new offensive coordinators—Ken Dorsey in Buffalo, Frank Smith in Miami, and >ahem< Matt Patricia in New England.
This season the East will have two new offensive coordinators, Bill O’Brien in New England and Nathaniel Hackett in New York. In addition, there will be some interesting player additions and subtractions in the East. Let’s evaluate and project, shall we?
Thanks, teamrankings.com, and statmuse.com, for statistics
Last season was Dorsey’s first season as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. He was previously the quarterbacks coach. Dorsey was appointed offensive coordinator after Brian Daboll left to become the head coach for the New York Giants.
For the Dorsey offense, it was a tale of two halves. In the first half (before the Week 7 bye), the offense amassed more than 300 yards in four of six games. In the last 12 games (including the playoffs), they had 300 yards only two times. The offense had its lowest point total in their last playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals (10).
While the second half of the season was on a downward trajectory, the rushing offense improved the second half of the season. Before the bye week, the offense averaged 117.8 rushing yards per game. After the bye week, the offense averaged 152.5 rushing yards per game.
There were also improvements from 2021 in the offense. They went from 389.3 yards per game (5th in 2021) to 394.9 yards per game (2nd in 2022). Dorsey’s offense led the league in third-down conversion percentage (50.3%) and was second in total offense EPA (expected points added). Josh Allen 119.3 for the season) up from 110.8 the previous year.
2023 Offensive Additions and Subtractions
Before we get to the free agency additions and subtractions, remember the Bills have six picks in this year’s 2023 NFL Draft.
They have acquired wide receivers Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and running back Damien Harris. They lost the services of slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie and running back Devin Singletary.
Trent Sherfield WR87 2022
The Bills acquired Sherfield from Miami. He averaged 5.2 fantasy points in his 16 games. He had 52 targets, 417 yards, and two touchdowns.
Sherfield played 227 snaps out of the slot, a 42.7% rate. His average depth of targets was 10.2, and he averaged 2.3 yards after the catch per target.
Deonte Harty WR 212 2022
Harty was acquired from the New Orleans Saints, where he played four games last season.
In his 2021 season, he played 13 games and averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game with 59 targets, 570 yards, and three touchdowns.
His average depth of target was 7.7, and he played 67 snaps out of the slot, a 25.2% slot rate.
2023 Fantasy Relevance
There is little doubt that Stefon Diggs is the number one fantasy target after Josh Allen.
Diggs WR4 2022
Last season Diggs was on the receiving end of 155 targets for a 28.4% target share. He pulled in 108 receptions. Next on the team was a tie between Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox with 48 receptions.
As went the total offense, so did Diggs. He had two games below 15 fantasy points in his first seven games, both in back-to-back outings in Weeks 3/4 against the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens. Against Miami, he had 14.4 fantasy points and 10.2 against Baltimore.
In the last 13 games (including playoffs), he had seven games below 15 fantasy points, including four games with single-digit fantasy output.
However, there is no universe where you are not targeting Diggs in your fantasy drafts.
James Cook RB 44 2022
Cook’s year went in the opposite trajectory of the total offense. He had 35 touches for 243 scrimmage yards in his first eight games. In the last eight games, he had 75 touches for 444 scrimmage yards.
Cook was on the field for a 31.2% opportunity share and averaged 6.3 yards per touch.
Damien Harris RB48 2022
The Bills signed Harris from the New England Patriots, where he played in 11 games last season, averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game.
It is expected that Cook will be RB1 in Buffalo.
Harris averaged 4.0 yards per carry on third downs. Look for him to be utilized when the Bills need those short yards and in the red zone, where he had 17 touches in 2022, and 46 red zone touches in 2021.
Miami Dolphins
Offensive Coordinator-Frank Smith
Smith is the offensive coordinator, but head coach Mike McDaniel calls the offensive plays.
While winning the “cool coach award” in the 2022 season, McDaniel also improved the Miami Dolphins and rehabilitated Tua Tagovailoa’s performance on the field.
No offense improved more in one year than the Dolphins did in the 2022 season. The Dolphins were third in yards per play in 2022 (6.0). In 2021 they were 29th (4.8). They scored 23.8 points per game in 2022 (11th) and 20.1 points per game (22nd) in 2021.
Tagovailoa finished the season with a 64.8% completion percentage, throwing 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw for 3548 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa’s completion percentage in the prior season was higher (67.8%) but lower in every other category. He threw for 2653 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.
Yes, much of the improvement can be attributed to the pieces around him. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle slayed the year. But McDaniel’s wide zone attack, stretching the field with Hill and Waddle optimized Tagovailoa.
NFL 2023 Additions and Subtractions
The Dolphins added quarterback Mike White, wide receiver Braxton Barrios, and tight end Eric Saubert, and resigned their running backs from last season, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Myles Gaskin.
They let go of tight ends Mike Gesicki and Hunter Long. Also gone is slot wide receiver Sherfield.
The Dolphins do not have a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They do, however, have four picks after the first round.
Round 2, Pick 51
Round 3, Pick 84
Round 6, Pick 197
Round 7, Pick 238
2023 Fantasy Relevance
Don’t make me tell you what you already know. You are drafting Hill and Waddle and taking a flyer on Tagovailoa in the later rounds.
Mike White, QB38
There is, unfortunately, the real possibility that Tagovailoa does not play the entire season. Tagovailoa suffered two and most likely three concussions last season. He missed the 2023 Pro Bowl because he was in concussion protocol. Tagovailoa did not clear the concussion protocol until February 2023.
Do you remember White, the anti-Zach Wilson in New York? White’s first start last season had him throwing for 405 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 37-of-45 passing game. A massive rib injury derailed his fairy-tale year, but it is understandable the optimism he brings as Tagovailoa’s backup with McDaniel’s calling plays.
There is no shame in grabbing White in the later rounds of your fantasy draft.
Braxton Berrios, WR108
With Sherfield gone, Berrios should slide seamlessly into the slot position.
Last season in Miami, that only accounted for a 10.2% target share and 21.8 average routes run per game. In New York, Berrios received a 5.4% target share last season and ran 9.9 average routes per game.
The usage will be uptake for Berrios but don’t let the high-powered offense fool you. Miami is still the Hill/Waddle show.
Eric Saubert, TE60
Last season in Denver was Saubert’s best, and he still finished with only one receiving touchdown and averaged 2.2 fantasy points per game.
The tight end position in Miami is Durham Smythe’s playground, and Saubert is just visiting. *Also note that Smythe will be TE1 in Miami, but last season he only averaged 2.5 fantasy points per game.
See Hill and Waddle.
Raheem Mostert, RB25
Mostert finished last season with 181 rushing attempts, 42 targets, and 27 red zone touches.
The Dolphins were 31st in run plays per game (22.6). In a crowded backfield, Mostert is RB1. And maybe they will run the ball more to protect Tagovailoa.
But are they seriously going to waste Hill and Waddle? Everything worked last season until Tagovailoa got injured…so….
New England Patriots
Offensive Coordinator-Bill O’Brien
Welcome back, Mr. O’Brien. O’Brien was the Patriots’ offensive play caller from 2009-2011.
What we think we know is that this year will be a stark contrast to the Patricia experiment. Patricia attempted to make the game more vertical.
O’Brien and the Patriots’ offensive history is a between-the-numbers type of game. So, we know that O’Brien will return to having the team win in the middle of the field.
His timing-based passing system attacks the space the defense gives.
We will also see Mac Jones in empty set formations giving Jones more options. In theory, O’Brien’s schemes allow the quarterback to start on the vertical read and work back to the horizontal routes.
Jones’s obvious regression from 2021 is what O’Brien is here to fix. Jones went from a 67.6% completion percentage to 65.2%. His yards per attempt dropped from 7.3 to 6.8. He threw eight fewer touchdowns, and his average fantasy points per game dropped 1.1 points.
2023 Additions and Subtractions
The Patriots acquired, among others, tight end Gesicki, wide receiver Ju Ju Smith Schuster, and running back James Robinson. Meanwhile, they lost running back Harris, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, and tight end Jonnu Smith.
The Patriots also currently hold 11 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Round 1, Pick 14
Round 2, Pick 46
Round 3, Pick 76 (from Carolina Panthers)
Round 4, Pick 107 (from Los Angeles Rams)
Round 4, Pick 117
Round 4, Pick 135 (compensatory pick)
Round 6, Pick 184
Round 6, Pick 187
Round 6, Pick 192
10 Round 6, Pick 210 (compensatory pick)
11 Round 7, Pick 245 (from Buffalo Bills via Atlanta Falcons)
2023 Fantasy Relevance
There is a reason for optimism, but come on, it’s a low bar after last year’s fantasy fiasco.
Mike Gesicki, TE23
Start with Gesicki because he has the highest ceiling. The Patriots have traditionally relied on a two-tight end set, where both had fantasy value. Gesicki was criminally underutilized last season in Miami.
After posting 73 receptions on 11 targets in 2021, Gesicki had 52 targets and 32 receptions in 2022. He did snag five touchdowns in 2022, one less than his high of six touchdowns in 2020. And he averaged 5.8 fantasy points per game, down from 9.7 in 2021 and 10.6 in 2020.
Gesicki is better when allowed to work out of the slot and maximize his mismatches. Here’s hoping.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – SEPTEMBER 19: Quarterback Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots directs the offense on the move against the New York Jets in the first half of the game at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR27
A slight upgrade of Meyers without the connection (as of yet) Myers had with Jones. Smith-Schuster averaged 5.9 yards after the catch last season. Meyers averaged 3.6 yards after the catch.
Smith-Schuster will be WR1 in New England. But the question remains is Smith-Schuster better as WR2 in an offense?
Personally, I would draft Gesicki before Smith-Schuster in redraft.
James Robinson, RB50
Robinson played 11 games in 2022. He finished with five touchdowns and 476 yards in those 11 games.
He joins Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong, and Kevin Harris in a backfield where Stevenson is RB1, and the rest will fight it out for playing time.
New York Jets
Offensive Coordinator-Nathaniel Hackett
While there are obvious questions regarding Hackett’s head coaching chops, there are no questions regarding his offensive coordinator abilities.
The #Jets are hiring former #Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett as their offensive coordinator, per sources.
Hackett previously called plays in Buffalo and Jacksonville, where he worked with Robert Saleh, and was widely revered during his tenure as Green Bay’s OC. A big hire. pic.twitter.com/XfP2LtNuYz
Rodgers had his back-to-back MVP wins with Hackett as offensive coordinator. Rodgers threw for 85 touchdowns and nine interceptions in those two years.
Remember that even will all the Rodgers talk, Hackett’s offenses prioritize the run. With Hackett, the offensive coordinator in 2020, the Packers had Aaron Jones post 1459 yards from scrimmage and Jamaal Williams 741 scrimmage yards.
2023 Additions and Subtractions
Currently, the Jets have acquired wide receiver Mecole Hardman, and wide receiver Alan Lazard, while losing both quarterback White and wide receivers Berrios and Elijah Moore and running back Robinson.
The Jets have six picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Round 1, Pick 13
Round 2, Pick 42 (from Cleveland Browns)
Round 2, Pick 43
Round 4, Pick 112
Round 5, Pick 143
Round 6, Pick 207 (from San Francisco 49ers via Houston Texans)
2023 Fantasy Relevance
In addition to the running back Breece Hall, Lazard is the clear winner here, even if the Jets somehow don’t acquire the services of Rodgers.
Lazard has familiarity with Hackett, and his ability to pass block will keep him on the field.
Garrett Wilson is, of course, in play, more so if Rodgers signs up. But less optimistic about Hardman.
Hardman went surgery for a core muscle injury in April. He missed nine games last season, including the Super Bowl and playoffs. Hardman is the clear slot guy, replacing Moore if he makes it back. But he will be in a new system, will most likely miss preseason recovering from surgery, and will have a new quarterback to get in sync with. None of that feels good (looking back on Rodgers’s timing with his receivers in Green Bay last season when the time was missed)
Wilson and Lazard feel like the obvious redraft choices but don’t sleep on Tyler Conklin (TE16 with 87 targets in 2022).
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