Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevance of the NFC South Offenses
As optimistic as we may be about the fantasy fortunes in the AFC East, we are that cautious about the fantasy relevance of the NFC South. The AFC South will have one new head coach and two new offensive coordinators. No team in this division is known as an offensive powerhouse yet.
But this division will also have two first-round picks from the 2023 NFL Draft. Both men will be starting, and both men have the dreaded high fantasy ceiling and low fantasy floor possibilities. And then, two transplanted quarterbacks will alter the fantasy landscape.
So, is there any hope? There is always hope. Let’s see where it lies.
Atlanta Falcons and Dave Ragone, Offensive Coordinator
Ragone is the offensive coordinator, but head coach Arthur Smith calls the offensive plays. And that offense is dominated by Smith’s ground-and-pound philosophy.
Last season stats:
- Second in rushing attempts per game, 32.9
- Second in rushing yards per game, 159.9
- 31st in passing attempts per game, 24.4.
- 31st in passing yards per game, 158.8.
Last season the Falcons went 5-8 in games decided by one score. They were 6-3 at home and 1-7 on the road. In their division, they split with both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers. The New Orleans Saints swept the Falcons by only four points total.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Falcons have the second-easiest schedule this season. Yet PFF only projects the Falcons to win only 6.5 games. FanDuel Bets projects the Falcons to win 8.5 games. The over for 8.5 is -115, while the under currently sits at -105.
Acquisitions
Free Agency
The Falcons completely rehauled the defensive side of the ball in free agency, including acquiring Jeff Okudah in a trade before the free agency period started. On the offensive side, their free agents were less splashy and were acquired for depth.
- Quarterback, Taylor Heinicke
- Wide Receiver, Mack Hollins
- Wide Receiver, Scotty Miller
- Wide Receiver, Penny Hart
2023 NFL Draft
The 2023 NFL Draft is where the Falcons made the biggest offensive splash. The Falcons had six picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Two of the six picks went to the offensive side of the ball. Their biggest pick was their first pick.
Round 1, Pick 8: Bijan Robinson, Running Back
Round 2, Pick 38: Matthew Bergerson, Offensive Tackle
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Robinson was the pick that solidified the offensive philosophy of head coach Smith. It may have also muddled fantasy football strategy for those drafting running backs.
Fantasy Relevance
Quarterback, Desmond Ridder
Ridder played in four games at the end of last season. He went 2-2. Ridder had 115 passing attempts for 708 yards and a 63.5% completion percentage. Although he only had two passing touchdowns, he had zero interceptions.
Ridder finished as QB48 in fantasy football. He also had 16 carries for 64 rushing yards. Last season in Marcus Mariota’s 13 games, Mariota had 438 rushing yards on 85 carries. He also had four rushing touchdowns. Ridder should see more opportunities to be a dual-threat quarterback. For his collegiate career, Ridder had 501 rushing attempts, 2180 rushing yards, and 28 rushing touchdowns.
Wide Receiver, Drake London
Drake finished as WR31. On a team that was 31st in passing attempts and passing yards, London had a 29.4% target share. He was on the receiving end of 117 targets and 72 receptions. London had a 33.1%-win rate against man defenses and a 30.1% target rate against man defenses. Against zone defenses, he had a 45.1%-win rate and a 32.8% target rate.
The running back situation is where it gets interesting. The Falcons’ running back room has three viable fantasy running back options.
Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier finished as RB29. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry. On 210 rushing attempts, Allgeier finished with the Falcons’ rookie rushing record collecting 1035 rushing yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson finished as RB31. He played in 13 games and finished with 695 rushing yards and 122 receiving yards. That was after having 548 receiving yards in 2021. Patterson may be the odd man out with the drafting of Bijan Robinson.
Bijan Robinson was drafted in the first round. He also leads the betting odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300. Robinson is a three-down back who exactly fits Smith’s wide zone scheme. Since he was drafted as the eighth overall pick and has been described as “dominant in the run game but also has plus-level traits that positively affect the passing game as well,” he figures too, at the very least, be in a running back by committee situation with Allgeier.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts finished the season as TE33. He only played in 10 games. He was on the receiving end of 59 targets and 356 receiving yards. In two years, Pitts has had three total touchdowns. The disappointment for fantasy managers is real.
Jonnu Smith was acquired in a trade. He knows Smith’s system. Last season in 14 games, Smith was on the receiving end of 39 targets and 245 receiving yards. He had zero touchdowns.
Trust in Pitts at your peril. Will Smith be the sleeper here?
Carolina Panthers and Offensive Coordinator, Thomas Brown
The Panthers have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new rookie quarterback. The offensive coordinator, Brown, comes from the Sean McVay tree. The position with the Panthers will be Brown’s first time as an offensive coordinator. Head coach Frank Reich will do the play-calling for now.
The evaluation for last year’s Panthers is even more futile than most evaluations. Their leading passer was Baker Mayfield, their leading rusher was D’Onta Foreman, and their leading receiver was DJ Moore.
Mayfield is now in Tampa. Foreman is now in Chicago with teammate Moore. The new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new offensive players make the 29th-ranked team in passing attempts and passing yards last season a throwaway.
Acquisitions
The Panthers went all in on the offensive side of the ball. They almost had to with their losses.
In free agency, they acquired wide receivers Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Damiere Byrd. The running back room added Miles Sanders, and the tight ends got Hayden Hurst. The quarterback room gained Andy Dalton after the departures of Sam Darnold and Phillip Walker.
The Panthers only had five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, including the first overall pick. Their first two picks went to the offensive side of the ball. The Panthers acquired:
Round 1, Pick 1: Bryce Young, Quarterback
Round 2, Pick 39: Jonathan Mingo, Wide Receiver
Round 4, Pick 114: Chandler Zavala, Guard
Fantasy Relevance
So, in redraft, this is where it gets particularly interesting. Head coach Reich is known for his work with quarterbacks. His offensive philosophy of working out of the gun, using empty sets spreading the field out should help Young see what’s happening and get comfortable with the game’s speed.
In addition to a rookie quarterback, this will be Sanders, Chark, Thielen, and Hurst’s first time in this offense.
So, let’s evaluate their opponents’ by their 2022 fantasy points allowed ( I know things change, but this is as good a barometer as any right now).
September 10 @ Atlanta
Falcons will start the season with a completely revamped defense. Last season the Falcons allowed 25 passing and three rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position. They were giving up an average of 16.9 fantasy points to the position.
The Falcons’ defense was pretty stingy, with the running backs giving up only 10 rushing touchdowns and allowing only 17.7 fantasy points per game to the position.
Wide receivers and tight ends excelled against the Falcons. Wide receivers received the 10th most fantasy points, and tight ends the third most fantasy points against them (22.2 and 9.4, respectively).
September 18 v New Orleans
The Saints were not generous to any fantasy position last season. Running backs fared best, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. Quarterbacks averaged 14.9 fantasy points, wide receivers 19.9 (ninth fewest), and tight ends the second-fewest fantasy points with 3.8.
September 24 @ Seattle
On the other hand, the Seahawks gave up the most fantasy points to the tight end position, 11.5, and the fourth most to the running back position, 22.1. In contrast, they gave up the third-fewest to the wide receiver position, 16.7. Quarterbacks averaged 15.3 fantasy points.
October 1 v Minnesota
The Vikings gave up the seventh most fantasy points to the quarterbacks, 18.1, and the third-most to their wide receivers, 24.7. Tight ends averaged 7.9 fantasy points, while running backs averaged 17.9.
October 8 @ Detroit
The Lions’ 21.9 average fantasy points per game to the quarterbacks were the most, and their 24.7 to the wide receivers was the second most. The Lions also surrendered the second most rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position allowing seven. Tight ends averaged the sixth most fantasy points at 8.8. Running backs did about the league average, with 16.8 fantasy points per game allowed.
October 15 @ Miami
The Dolphins also surrendered an approximate league average to the running back position, with 16.8 fantasy points allowed. The quarterbacks received the second most fantasy points from the Dolphins, 19.6, and the Dolphins also gave up the seventh most passing touchdowns, 27. But the beneficiary was mostly the tight-end position. The Dolphins allowed 10 tight end passing touchdowns resulting in the fourth most fantasy points to the tight ends (9.1). Wide receivers only averaged 20.3 fantasy points against them (14th fewest), and with running backs hitting that league average, 16.8.
Week 7 BYE WEEK
Just a friendly reminder per BetMGM, Bryce Young is the second favorite to win AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. The odds are +450, behind Bijan Robinson’s +275 and ahead of Anthony Richardson’s +700.
And…
What does it mean? In the beginning, all teams are starting over. The Falcons will be doing so with a relatively new defense. The Vikings will be playing without Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and Eric Kendricks, to name a few. The Lions added Cam Sutton and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and the Dolphins resigned Justin Bethel and Nik Needham, added Deshon Elliott, and lost Eric Rowe.
We must see how it goes, but Hurst looks pretty good for the first few games.
New Orleans Saints and Pete Carmichael Jr., Offensive Coordinator
The Saints will have a new quarterback under center but still have questions in their offense. Will Alvin Kamara be suspended? Will Michael Thomas return to form? What will be the role Taysom Hill plays? He currently sits as TE3 in the Ourlads.com depth chart and has been taking quarterback snaps.
Carmichael has been the offensive coordinator in New Orleans since 2009. There was speculation about his job security as the Saints’ offense underperformed last season. The Saints finished 16th in passing yards (217.2) and 19th in rushing yards (116.6) last season. But Carmichael is back, and the offense has acquired more firepower.
In free agency, the Saints acquired quarterback Derek Carr, running back Jamaal Williams, tight end Foster Moreau and resigned wide receiver Michael Thomas to an incentive-laden contract.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Saints had seven picks. Three of the seven picks were spent on the offensive side of the ball.
Round 3, Pick 71: Kendre Miller, Running Back
Round 4, Pick 127: Jake Haener, Quarterback
Round 6, Pick 195: A.T. Perry, Wide Receiver
Miller will be essential, especially if Alvin Kamara misses games due to suspension. Perry had a third-round grade, and the Saints got him in the sixth round. Perry isn’t the best route runner but is a legitimate deep threat.
Fantasy Relevance
Quarterback-Derek Carr
Carr has all the weapons to be successful, including pass-catching tight ends and pass-catching running backs. But he had that last season two when optimism was high with the reunion of Carr and Davante Adams.
Last season Carr finished as QB17 in 15 games. He averaged 15.5 fantasy points a game. Carr had 502 passing attempts with a 60.8% completion percentage (the lowest since his rookie year) and a 7.0 yards per attempt (a five-year low).
But Carr was fifth in deep ball attempts (72). Yet he was 28th in deep ball completion percentage (31.9%). Carr was 12th in passing touchdowns with 24, but he also had 14 interceptions. His 2.8% interception rate was the highest of his career.
Carr has only finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback once in his career. In 2016 he finished as QB10 in fantasy.
Wide Receiver-Michael Thomas
In the last two seasons, Thomas has played in three games. Those three games were last season. In his three games, he had a 19.6% target share and a 33.3% end zone target share. Thomas finished the three games with 16 receptions, 117 yards, and three touchdowns.
It is unlikely that Thomas will be WR1 in New Orleans. He might not even be the second option. But if Thomas can sustain his end zone target share, he has a high floor. However, a high ceiling is currently overly optimistic.
Wide Receiver-Chris Olave
Olave’s strengths align with Carr’s strengths. Last season Olave was ninth in aDOT (14 yards), eighth in air yards (1670 or 11.3/g), fourth in deep targets (29), and third in air yards share (40.8%). Olave did this with a 26.7% target share on a 75.6% catchable target rate (53rd).
In 2020, Carr was eighth in deep ball attempts (65) with a 44.6% deep ball completion percentage (10th). In 2021, Carr was fifth in deep ball pass attempts (77) with a 36.4% completion percentage (22nd). It’s clear that Carr likes to throw the ball down the field, and it is an added bonus that he has 34.9 career pass attempts. Olave should be a top-15 wide receiver this season.
Wide Receiver-A.T. Perry
Perry is a sleeper pick. He was drafted in the sixth round but had a third-round grade. He isn’t the polished route runner. But he is a deep threat (ahem, an area where Carr excels).
Tight End-Juwan Johnson
Last season Johnson lead the team with seven touchdowns. It looks good for Johnson to be TE1 in New Orleans because the Saints traded away Adam Trautman. It also is good that Johnson has been studying and taking passes out of the slot. Last season Johnson had the seventh most slot snaps (185) of tight ends.
Last season Johnson finished as TE15. The acquisition of Foster Moreau and still having Taysom Hill in New Orleans slightly muddles Johnson’s fantasy value. But last season, he was TE15 playing behind Trautman. This season Moreau will be playing behind him (and who knows what Hill will be doing).
It seems that TE15 is Johnson’s floor.
Running Back-Alvin Kamara
In 15 games last season, Kamara finished as RB16. There is a chance he will miss substantial time this season due to suspension.
Running Back-Jamaal Williams
Williams finished the season as RB13. He also led the league in touchdowns with 17. Williams carried the ball league-leading 41 times inside the 10-yard line. Those carries accounted for 13 of his rushing touchdowns. Last season Kamara had eight carries inside the 10-yard line. Hill had 12 carries inside the 10-yard line. If Williams shares goal-line carries, Williams will have a touchdown regression.
Williams averaged 4.1 yards per carry last season. Only 2.7% of his carries went for 15 yards or more. For the season, that was only seven breakaway runs. But Williams is RB2 behind Kamara and RB1 if Kamara misses time.
Running Back-Kendre Miller
Miller was drafted in round three of the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is recovering from a meniscus injury. When healthy, Miller is a three-down back who gets yards after contact. He is also relevant in the passing game. He had 233 receiving yards in two seasons and averaged 8.5 yards per reception.
If Kamara misses time, Miller moves up in playing time.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dave Canales, Offensive Coordinator
The Buccaneers will start the season with a new offensive coordinator and someone not named Tom Brady under center. Their coordinator Canales was the Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks coach last year. Under center will either be Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield.
Last season was indicative of having Brady under center. The Buccaneers finished first in passing attempts per game (45.4) and second in passing yards (273.3). The team was also 32nd in rushing attempts (22.1) and 32nd in rushing yards per game (75.6).
Gone
In addition to not having Brady under center, the Buccaneers will be without the services of running back Leonard Fournette, tight end Cameron Brate, and wide receivers Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller.
They added quarterback Mayfield and running back Chase Edmonds.
Fantasy Relevance
Quarterback-Baker Mayfield
Mayfield played in 12 games last season. He was on the roster for the Carolina Panthers, the Buccaneers, and the Los Angeles Rams. He finished his frenetic season with 335 passing attempts and a 60.% completion percentage.
His fantasy high came in Week 16 against the Denver Broncos. Mayfield had 28 passing attempts with 230 passing yards. His 85.7% completion percentage was his highest. He had two passing touchdowns and finished with 17.4 fantasy points.
Mayfield’s lowest fantasy week followed his highest. In Week 17 against the Los Angeles Chargers, he had 19 passing attempts with 132 passing yards and a 57.9% completion percentage. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and finished with 4.1 fantasy points.
Wide Receiver-Mike Evans
Let’s just state the obvious first, all receiving positions will have a lower ceiling without Brady under center. The question is, how much lower is their ceiling?
It is a legitimate question for Evans because his metrics were down last season. He was 37th in target share (19.7%) and 11th in air yard share (35.4%). His touchdowns decreased from 14 in 2021 to six in 2022. And of the six in 2022, three were in one week.
Evans scored 35% of his fantasy points in two games. In Week 4, his state line was 8-103-2. That accounted for 13.4% of his total PPR fantasy points. In Week 17, his stat line was 10-207-3. That accounted for 21.6% of his total PPR fantasy points for the season.
That’s not only a huge chunk of fantasy points in two games, but it is also a long dry spell for fantasy managers expecting WR1 or WR2 production from Evans.
Last season with the Buccaneers passing the ball an average of 45.4 times, Evans finished as WR13. That could be his ceiling this season.
Wide Receiver-Chris Godwin
Godwin averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game last season. He finished as WR15. In 15 games, Godwin was 31st in target share with 21.8%. He still had career highs in targets (142) and receptions (104).
There is talk that Canales intends on putting Godwin on the outside more this season. Godwin has been more productive in the slot. But per fantasy data, Mayfield throws 38% of his passes to the outside.
Running Back-Rachaad White
Leonard Fournette is gone. That leaves White as RB1 in Tampa Bay. Last season Mayfield only targeted running backs 19% of the time. That was the lowest positional target rate.
White played in 17 games last season. Until the final nine games, White did not have more than a 40% snap share.
He averaged 3.7 yards per carry on 129 rushing attempts. White also had an 8.9% target share. He was on the receiving end of 58 targets and had 50 receptions for 290 receiving yards.
The plus for White’s fantasy value is that he is no longer in a running back by committee.
Tight End-Cade Otton
Here is the problem, Otton will be TE1 in the Buccaneers’ offense. Last season Mayfield threw 23% of his passes to the tight end position (second most for him). However, there are many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, and we know the number of pass attempts will be reduced drastically. And, of course, there are the fantasy pros who forecast that the Buccaneers have the fourth-hardest schedule for tight ends.
It is hard to imagine investing draft capital in Otton in this current offense.
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