The Most Polarizing QB Prospect In 2024 | JJ McCarthy

QB jj mccarthy – University of michigan
6-FOOT-3 | 219LBS
Career Stats: pass – 482 comp (67.6%) 6,226 YDS 49 TDS 11 INTS | rush – 161 att 632 YDS 10 TDS

*stats not linked are from sourced from PFF.com

Pros

JJ McCarthy does most of his damage between the numbers, with almost 65% of his pass attempts thrown to the middle of field in 2023. He was surgical this past season in this portion of the field with a completion percentage of 79%, in contrast to 61% and 68% on the left and right boundaries, respectively. McCarthy routinely threaded the needle on in-breaking routes where he had to get it on his receiver quickly and in a tight window.

Another strength of McCarthy is his effectiveness in play action, which accounted for nearly 24% of his dropbacks in 2023. Michigan’s offensive line and rushing attack helped to set up the play action, but McCarthy executed with his highest percentage of big time throws and completion percentage coming from this passing concept (excluding screens).

An element of his college play that will serve him well in the NFL is his rushing upside, whether it be on designed runs or scrambles. And in his two years as a starter, McCarthy accumulated nearly as many yards scrambling (362 yards) as he did on designed runs (380 yards). Much has been said about McCarthy’s ability to convert on third downs; however, what is also impressive is his ability to use his legs to keep drives alive. On 82 rushing attempts in 2022 and 2023 combined, McCarthy generated first downs more than half the time.

Cons

JJ McCarthy showed his ability to spin it with his second-in-class throw speed at the combine (61mph); however, he was inconsistent in his ability to layer passes outside the numbers. As previously noted McCarthy threw primarily to the center of the field, more specifically the short and intermediate areas. The same flat trajectory that McCarthy utilizes to get it on his receivers quickly across the middle of the field does not translate well when needing to drop passes over and between coverage.

McCarthy has displayed his ability to scramble but when he navigates the pocket he shows an inclination to scramble instead of maneuvering in the pocket and delivering the ball downfield. That is not to say McCarthy is unable to work on his “Spidey sense” in the pocket once he makes it to the NFL; however, I am concerned for him not being given time to develop and instead be thrust into the QB-1 role in Week 1.

The arm talent is certainly evident for McCarthy but the ball placement on off-platform throws has its ups and downs. I am not certain whether this is related to his mechanics; however, McCarthy is a younger prospect with much less starting experience in college than his fellow rookie quarterbacks so I believe this could be developed at the NFL level.

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Summary

JJ McCarthy was efficient with what opportunities he was given in his two years as Michigan’s starter, despite the volume being well below those of his fellow quarterbacks amongst the top of the 2024 rookie class. With some concern over McCarthy’s slight six-foot, three-inch frame, the quarterback bulked up for the NFL combine to 219lbs. The frame, arm strength and scrambling ability all present traits that NFL teams covet in a franchise quarterback, but McCarthy is still very much developing in some key areas.

When working from the pocket, McCarthy has room to grow in his ability to layer passes outside the numbers; as well as, navigating the pocket rather than scrambling too often/early. Additionally, McCarthy utilizes his mobility and arm strength to deliver passes from out of the pocket. When delivering the ball off-platform, however, McCarthy’s ball placement becomes a bit erratic. As previously noted McCarthy is a younger quarterback than the other top prospects which leaves dynasty managers with two conclusions that like his traits: 1) McCarthy has tremendous upside and will grow with NFL experience or 2) McCarthy requires the right situation or else he runs the risk of being a backup after his rookie contract.

As far as rookie rankings McCarthy is my QB-5 with the possibility to move up based on a landing spot that best fits his play style as he develops. I want to see McCarthy maximize his traits and develop; however, I know that rookie quarterbacks are not always awarded with the best of situations (front office, coaching, scheme, supporting cast, etc.). A few landing spots based on recent mock drafts from prominent analysts include the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.

Strengths

• Ball Placement Across The Middle
• Operates Well In Play Action
• Mobility To Rollout & Scramble

Concerns

• Layering Throws Outside The Numbers
• Navigating The Pocket
• Ball Placement Off-Platform

2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: Mid-Late 1st Round Pick

Ideal Role: Project With QB-2 Upside

Player Comp: Matt Corral & Brock Purdy

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