Is New OC in Washington the Answer for Your Commander Fantasy Shares?
We know the story…Kingsbury and his Air Raid system joined with Kyler Murray cannot be a miss, and it was good for a while. Then he went to USC and teamed up with Caleb Williams for one year. For a brief time, he was with this year’s incarnation of the Las Vegas Raiders and now he is the offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders.
This year’s Commanders appears to be a perfect fit for Kingsbury’s offensive schemes, ( better than what the Las Vegas Raiders had to offer him) and Patrick Mahomes has stated that Kingsbury, ‘did a great job of letting him be who he is, adjusting the offense to fit his skill set’,
and it does appear that Kingsbury molds offenses to his players, especially quarterback play.
So, what players in Washington will benefit fantasy football managers the most?
Kingsbury Offensive Scheme
Much has been made regarding the “Air Raid” scheme that Kingsbury utilizes. It appears that a lot of people are fixated on his college edition of the ‘Air Raid’, where he had an underutilized run game and used three or sometimes four wide receivers to attack downfield. That was then. The predominant use of the shotgun formation, bubble screens, and fast play.
That didn’t change much when he transitioned to the NFL, except for the running back play. The Cardinals utilized an up-tempo, gap scheme rushing attack that (when possible) used the running back as a receiver and blocker.
Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals
Kingsbury was the head coach in Arizona from 2019-2022, which included quarterback Kyler Murray’s rookie season. In Murray’s rookie season, the Cardinals were:
- 16th in points per game, 22.6
- 19th in yards per game, 324.1
- 21st in plays per game, 62.5
In Kingsbury’s time with the Cardinals, they led the league in playing 10 personnel but Kingsbury’s offensive “fantasy studs” changed according to his personnel. So, who can we count on to be the fantasy studs for the 2024 season?
3. Luke McCaffrey, Wide Receiver
McCaffrey was the 100th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and is currently listed as slot receiver one in both Ourlads and ESPN depth charts for the Commanders.
When he had the players, Kingsbury utilized his slot receivers. In the 2019 and 2020 seasons when he had Larry Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald was first and fifth in slot snaps.
Washington beat writers are reporting that McCaffrey is excelling in OTAs and rookie minicamp, although listed as a slot has been lining up outside also.
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McCaffrey went from Nebraska to Rice, where he switched from quarterback to wide receiver. When he switched from quarterback to wide receiver he began to excel. McCaffrey played wide receiver for two years, his stats for the two years combined included 1,715 receiving yards on 129 receptions and 19 touchdowns.
2. Austin Ekeler, Running Back
Brian Robinson fits the gap scheme that Kingsbury likes to run. Ekeler fits the receiving running back that Kingsbury likes to employ. Here lies the conundrum, in his first season with Kingsbury, James Conner finished as RB7. He was RB7 because he had 18 total touchdowns!
Many forget that Chase Edmonds was also on the team. Edmonds was targeted 53 times and had 43 receptions for 311 receiving yards. He also had 116 rushing attempts for 592 yards but only two touchdowns.
Conner had 202 rushing attempts for 752 yards and 39 targets, 37 receptions, and 357 yards.
Ekeler v Robinson
| Player | Year | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns |
| Ekeler | 2022 | 204 | 915 | 128 | 107 | 722 | 18 |
| Robinson | 2022 | 205 | 797 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 3 |
| Ekeler | 2023 | 179 | 628 | 74 | 51 | 436 | 6 |
| Robinson | 2023 | 178 | 733 | 43 | 36 | 367 | 9 |
Could this be an instance where there is no wrong answer? Of course, not in fantasy football redraft you want the most bang for your draft capital. Ekeler has the name value that most drafters love, and Robinson has the “younger legs” upside. And then there is the rookie quarterback added to the equation, that’s where Ekeler gets the slight edge. A dependable veteran in the backfield with the rookie who can also swing outside as a safety valve, Ekeler can return to his PPR stud value.
1.Jayden Daniels, Quarterback
The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner also received the Walter Camp Player of the Year, the Davy O’Brien Award (top quarterback in the Nation), the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and was a finalist for the Maxwell Award.
Daniels led the FBS with 11.7 yards per attempt and 8.4 yards per reception. He was ranked second with 40 passing touchdowns and four interceptions while leading all quarterbacks and establishing an LSU quarterback record for 1,134 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
The comparison between Murray and Daniels cannot be overlooked, not only because of their style of play but because both see Kingsbury in their rookie year. The major difference is that Daniels is surrounded by better weapons. But Murray’s rookie year with Kingsbury was good.
Kyler Murray 2019 Stats
| Pass Attempts/Rank | Pass Yards/Rank | Rush Attempts/Rank | Rush Yards/Rank | Pace of Play/Rank | Fantasy Finish |
| 542/9th | 3,722/15th | 93/3rd | 544/2nd | 2.39/3rd | QB11 |
Jayden Daniels Targets
Daniels has at his disposal (in addition to those already mentioned):
WRs: Terry McLaurin, who last year was eighth in deep targets (28), 13th in air yards (1,500) and had a 92.9% true catch rate.
Jahan Dotson who had 115 yards after catch on his 518 receiving yards; and
TE: Zach Ertz who knows Kingsbury’s scheme has been targeted 115, 108, and 86 times respectively in the last three years.
Schedule
While the schedule isn’t going to be a cakewalk, the Commanders will play the AFC North in addition to their divisional foes there is some optimism, as they also get the weaker NFC South.
All stats unless otherwise stated from Player Profiler and Teamrankings.com.
Who Do You Got?
You can only draft one Washington Commander on your fantasy team, who do you got?
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