NFL Week 9 Last Call Premium Play Start or Forget

Happy November, this will be a stressful week, but you know that you will survive it because let’s face it you survived the Zombie apocalypse and well… you are a badass. So, let’s make your fantasy lineup one less thing for you to stress about.

The drink this week is to celebrate the 19^th Amendment which was ratified in 1920. That means that this drink will be one that was popular in the 1920s and it is super easy to make with only four ingredients, let’s do this!

Side Car

You Will Need

Ice cubes

Martini glass or Coupe

½ ounce lemon juice

½ ounce Cointreau or triple sec

1 ounce Brandy

1 lemon wedge

You Will

Fill a cocktail shaker ¾ full of ice and then add the lemon juice, triple sec, and Brandy. Shake it well (usually until the outside of the shaker has a film of ice).

Then strain the ingredients into your martini glass. Add lemon wedge as your garnish and Proust!

There are two teams on a bye this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers, which will include some premium players and defenses.

Now for the premium, well and mat plays for this week…and remember just breathe.

Premium Play, Wide Receiver, Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos will take their 5-3 record to Baltimore to play the 5-3 Baltimore Ravens, which is more surprising?

The Baltimore Ravens secondary has been less than advertised in the past four weeks they allowed this to happen:

Player	Week	Target	Receptions	Yards/TD
Cedric Tillman	8	9	7	99y/2
*Cade Otton	7	10	8	100/0
Terry McLaurin	6	7	6	53/2
Ja’Marr Chase	5	12	10	193/2

Except for tight end Cade Otton in Week 7 who was “acting” as WR1 with no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, opposing WR1s have collected over 50 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens secondary.  

This includes wide receivers receiving passes from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and replacement quarterback Jameis Winston in his first start. Now enter obnoxious head coach and rookie quarterback Bo Nix throwing passes to Courtland Sutton.

For the season, Sutton has a 21.8% target share, and 97.4% route participation, he is seventh among all wide receivers in deep targets (13) and sixth in red zone targets (10). Last week against the Carolina Panthers, Sutton was targeted 11 times and collected eight receptions for 100 yards. He led the team in targets, receptions, and yards.

The Broncos are 12^th in pass attempts per game (32.9) but 21^st in plays per game (61.3), while the Ravens are tied for 10^th in plays per game (63.2) and giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (28.1).

The Broncos are an eight-point road underdog, and they will be playing a Ravens team who need to wash the stink from last week’s upset loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos run game is not an option.

Well Position, Wide Receiver, A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

This is an interesting play, you are not under any circumstances, for any reason whatsoever going to sit Brown, but you are going to be cautiously optimistic this week.

The Eagles are a 7.5-point favorite at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars will be without Christian Kirk and potentially Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, which means the Eagles may not have to do much.

For the season the Eagles are 30^th in passing plays per game (27.4) and first in rushing attempts per game (34.3). In his last three games quarterback Jalen Hurts has attempted 20, 14, and 25 passes, and while yes, they have resulted in 236, 114, and 264 yards, it is a reason for cautious optimism.

 So, this is strictly a volume warning, although no wide receiver in the NFL is better against man coverage DeVonta Smith is still there wanting to share in the spoils.

The optimism comes from @GrahamBarfield who has noted that Jacksonville has played man coverage on at least 40% of the opponent’s pass plays in 6-of-8 games.

A.J. Brown is absolutely demolishing man-to-man coverage with a ridiculous 9/182/2 receiving result (5.35 YPRR!) on 34 routes

Jacksonville has played man coverage on at least 40% of opponents pass plays in 6-of-8 games: pic.twitter.com/qRgXCmNAcl

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 31, 2024

Despite the passing volume (or lack thereof), you are cautiously optimistic because Brown is a beast and in Week 7, when Hurts completed 10 of his 14 pass attempts, Brown had 50% of the completions, 78% of the yardage, and 100% of the touchdowns per fantasypoints.com.

Choosing Brown is like ordering your first Negroni, it’s a premium cocktail that you know could be great, should be great, but just might be a little off from what you were expecting.

Mat Play (or just don’t), Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Miami Dolphins

I am thankful that Tagovailoa is back. I am equally thankful that he slid after his run last week. If I were a Dolphins fan, I would not be thankful that he is playing the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo this Sunday.

The weather should not be too much of an issue with a purported high of 56, it is Tagovailoa’s recent history against the Bills that is worrisome.  

In his eight games against the Bills, Tagovailoa has one win. He has seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions, has completed 61.8% of his passes, and has averaged 6.78 yards per attempt. That is in comparison to his overall stats since 2020 where he has a 67% completion percentage, averages 7.7 yards per attempt, and has 84 touchdowns to 40 interceptions.

But what might be most worrisome is that two of his concussions have come against the Buffalo Bills, and being human that thought has to be in the back of his mind.

This is Tua’s second game back against a defense that has had his number from the go…it doesn’t look good.

“Not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender.” ~ Keith Ellison

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