NFL Week 10 Last Call Premium, Start or Forget Plays
Here is what we know and what we think we know: this is Week 10 of the NFL season, not quite the last call, but the bartender is starting her cleaning duties and you are deciding what cutie gives you the best chance; there are four teams on a bye this week and some with viable fantasy assets, the Cleveland Browns (Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, and Myles Garrett), the Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love, Pick a wide receiver, Aaron Jones and the defense), the Las Vegas Raiders (Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers), and the Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba); and there were some meaningful trades at the deadline, most noticeably Marshawn Lattimore going to Washington and Mike Williams (not necessarily him but what he does for the offense) going to Pittsburgh.
So, buckle up my friends it’s going to be a bumpy ride, remember there are teams experiencing dysfunction and there are teams that are doing what appears to be a fire sale, and although we are talking about professionals here, we are also discussing players who may need to start making on-field “business decisions”.
As for the drink of the week, I could think of no better libation to consume than a
“Fuck Me Hard” recipe from Cocktail Builder.
What You Will Need
¼ ounce of triple sec
¼ ounce of amaretto liqueur or an almond liqueur
¼ ounce vodka
¼ ounce of Southern Comfort peach liqueur or a peach liqueur
½ ounce raspberry liqueur
Splash of cranberry juice
Splash of orange juice
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What to Do
Mix all the ingredients and shake well.
Serve over Ice.
Nah zda-ROVH-yeh! ==phonetic spelling Russian for Cheers!
Honestly this week a shot of anything strong and affordable is acceptable too. Let’s get to those players!
Premium Play, Tight End, George Kittle, San Francisco
All the talk this week is about the return of running back Christian McCaffrey, and rightly so but let’s not forget about Kittle, because in a shallow tight-end pool, Kittle is floating above the rest.
Kittle has a 25.9% target share and an 89.8% snap share. In his last three weeks (the 49ers had a bye in Week 9) he has:
| Weeks | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns |
| Week 6 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 2 |
| Week 7 | 7 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Week 8 | 7 | 6 | 128 | 1 |
For the season Kittle has run 185 routes with an 81.5% route participation, which is fifth and once again Kittle is dominating in yards after catch ranking sixth with 194. And while it is a fact that McCaffrey will become the focal point of the offense (at some point) in this game he will most likely be used to help the 49ers with their 30th red zone offense, having a 40.9% red zone efficiency without McCaffrey.
But the biggest reason for making Kittle a premium play is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers are bottom five in total coverage grade, passing yards allowed, and yards allowed to the tight end positions. Last week Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce collected 100 receiving yards against them, the week before Atlanta Falcons’ Kyle Pitts had 91 yards and two touchdowns and in Week 6 Baltimore Ravens’ Mark Andrews found the end zone twice against them.
Well Play, Sam Darnold, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings
Before the season started it was a general belief that Darnold was just a placeholder(or was that just me?) in Minnesota, then the season started and Darnold’s play dismissed those rumors as the Vikings entered their bye week 5-0, as Darnold passed for 11 touchdowns on three interceptions.
Then came two losses and the loss of offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw. This was quickly followed by the acquisition of left tackle Cam Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars and a Week 9 win against the Indianapolis Colts.
In last week’s victory, Darnold threw for 290 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His 34 pass attempts were the second most for the season and the 28 completions were the most.
Now the Vikings will play Robinson’s old team and there is reason to believe that Darnold may even be a step above well pricing. Per Pro Football Focus Darnold off play action is 51-of-69 for 713 yards and nine touchdowns. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards off play action. In addition, Darnold should have his full complement of offensive weapons back as tight end T.J. Hockenson made his debut last week.
The Jaguars are spiraling downward the Vikings are trending up, Darnold is a safe replacement for your bye-week quarterback.
Mat Play or Just Don’t Do It
I honestly cannot think of one player to put in this category, because even meh players have a wide range of outcomes this week.
The New Orleans Saints are worrisome, but will they get that new coach bump at home against the Atlanta Falcons in a divisional game? Quarterback Derek Carr didn’t look great but finished with 236 yards, one touchdown, and some serious smoke from former Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas.
The Carolina Panthers are participating in a fire sale and have put quarterback Bryce Young out there with no weapons, which last week had the Panthers finishing with a win against the Saints and Young throwing for 171 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
There are reports that rookie running back Jonathan Brooks may see the field this week.
And don’t even get started on the dysfunction that is currently the Chicago Bears who can quickly go from zero relevancy to them overcoming Matt Eberflus and beating the New England Patriots at home.
But for the props you want to play this week just listen to NFL Week 10 Pick ‘Em Prop Show…Show, this is top shelf.
“We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope.”~ Martin Luther King, Jr.
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