AFC West, Sleeper, Keeper, Drop ‘Em Like He’s Hot
The wild, wild West is gunslinger nation with Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. Every team is chasing the Chiefs and their off-season acquisitions just prove that.
How is wild West going to impact your fantasy team?
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
KEEPER: Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback: If I have to justify this to you…you should ask yourself if you really should be playing fantasy football.
SLEEPER: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Running Back: There was a brief time when Edwards-Helaire could be called a sleeper, that may not be the case anymore. There was always high praise and high expectations for the LSU star, but with Damien Williams opting out…well it’s on. His competition for the number one running back now includes Darrel Williams who was on IR in December but still out-snapped Darwin Thompson, Williams was on the field for 25.43 percent of offensive snaps, while Thompson was on the field for 10.19 percent of offensive snaps.
Edwards-Helaire was picked at the end of the first round by the Chiefs when they had Williams in the fold. Now that he is gone you have a three-down back playing in an offense where the defense has no chance of stacking the box. If Edwards-Helaire can get his blocking right…he is a top 10 fantasy running back this season.
DROP ‘EM: Ricky Seals-Jones, Tight-End: Seals-Jones has played three years in the NFL. His most productive season was his second year (2018), he played in 15 games, five of which he started. He was targeted 70 times for 34 receptions and one touchdown.
He is now the number two tight end in Kansas City? Can you name another tight end in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce? Exactly! The least amount of targets that Kelce has had was in 2014 when he was targeted 87 times. In the two seasons, Kelce has played with Mahomes he has been targeted 150 times (2017) and 136 times (2019). Last season he was the only tight end in KC to catch a pass. Pass on Seals-Jones.
DENVER BRONCOS
KEEPER: Drew Lock, Quarterback: Lock started the final five games of last season. In that stretch he had a 64.1 percent completion rate, throwing seven touchdowns to three interceptions. He averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game. The Broncos’ offense ranked 27th in pass attempts per game with 31.5. Clearly they are aiming higher.
The Broncos loaded up. In addition to Courtland Sutton, they now have Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Noah Fant. There are two hiccups: one is the shortened preseason may have the Broncos’ offense starting slow with two rookies and a second-year quarterback trying to get on the same page; and two their offensive line isn’t that good. Last season they ranked 25th in pass protection and allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked 43 times.
So Lock has to overcome the rookie malaise and a slightly better but still shaky offensive line. His schedule isn’t all that promising either. His first five games include match-ups against the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots. It will be a rough start but look for Lock and his bevy of weapons to make beautiful fantasy points.
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SLEEPER: Noah Fant, Tight-End: Last season as a rookie Fant played under three different quarterbacks (and a bad offensive line). He still managed 40 receptions on 66 targets and three touchdowns. Fant averaged 8.3 yards after catch which was the best among tight ends.
Fant is being overlooked because of the shiny new additions in the Broncos offense. Which is legit because it will impact his targets. But with the defense focusing on Jeudy, Sutton and Hamler, space opens up for Fant. As he showed last season he can make good things happen when given the ball.
DROP ‘EM: Philip Lindsay, Running Back: This is not a knock o the capabilities of Lindsay, on the contrary. Lindsay has had over 1000 yards in his two seasons. This is more of a questioning of the machinations of general manager John Elway. Last season Lindsay had 224 rushing attempts, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. He was also targeted 48 times for 196 yards, finishing the season with seven total touchdowns, all while not going above 50 percent in snap share until week seven of the season. In the last two years, eight running backs have more rushing yards than Lindsay and none of them are named Melvin Gordon. So the question is why is Gordon in the fold with a $13.5 million guaranteed contract?
Gordon will most assuredly be in for goal-line carries. He also has value in passing down situations, last season after holding out for four games, he was on the receiving end of 55 targets for 296 yards and one passing touchdown.
Gordon most definitely devalues Lindsay, in fantasy. Hence, the drop status. But if you can get him later rounds there is no shame in that game.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
KEEPER: Austin Ekeler, Running Back: Last season Ekeler was on the field by himself for the first four games. In the first five games, he had 227 rushing yards, 356 receiving on 39 receptions, and six touchdowns. Proving he can be the man. Ekeler gets most of his fantasy value catching passes out of the backfield. He will be a check-down option to Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, but neither is known for utilizing the running back in the passing game.
However, neither have had Ekeler type back in their backfield. Taylor played with LeSean McCoy in Buffalo, where McCoy was on the receiving end of 50 targets (2015), 58 targets (2016) and 77 targets (2017). Ekeler was targeted 108 times last season. That won’t be the case this year, but it doesn’t dampen the fact that he is the number one running back for the Chargers.
Ekeler will see a decrease in his PPR fantasy stats. In fantasy opportunity is paramount and he is the running back in this offense that will have the most opportunity.
SLEEPER: Tyrod Taylor, Quarterback: I am not down with the proliferation of Taylor hate that is spewing about. First, he managed in 2017 his last season in Buffalo, he had 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 427 yards. That season his offensive line was ranked 31st in pass protection and his leading receivers were Charles Clay and Deonte Thompson.
Yes, they drafted Justin Herbert to be the face of the franchise, but if Taylor has the Chargers winning will Anthony Lynn remove him just to give Herbert a chance? Taylor is playing with better receiving options and a better offensive line. His ability to scramble just adds a dimension to the fantasy points he can provide.
The wild-cards are of course Herbert and Taylor getting injured. Their schedule is conducive to the Chargers starting strong, their first five games against Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. The worst they should come out of that is 3-3, the worst! Before the bye week, they will see also Jets again, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders.
Taylor needs to lead the team to the bye week with a winning record. He has the talent around him on both sides of the ball. If he does he plays the full season and will finish as a top-10 quarterback.
DROP ‘EM: Mike Williams, wide receiver: In a fully loaded offense somebody has to be the odd man out. Last season Williams had the best year of his career with over 1000 receiving yards and he led the league in yards per catch with 20.4. Yet he only had two touchdowns down from 10 the previous year, and while he was targeted 90 times he caught only 49. And those numbers were with Philip Rivers who is a known gunslinger.
Now there is the efficient Taylor under center. Not only that there is Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Ekeler, all who have a better catch rate than Williams. While he may have the advantage of taking some of the targets that would have gone to Ekeler, this will be an offense that passes less and runs more.
Currently, it appears Williams ADP is 10th round. For a guy who is most likely the third or fourth option in a team that will pass less and run more that feels about right. But if you have waited on a quarterback or find yourself without a tight end then dropping Williams is a valid option.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
DROP ‘EM: Tyrell Williams, Wide Receiver: The ‘problem’ with the AFC West is that most of the clubs went into the NFL 2020 Draft and free agency looking for weapons to keep up with KC. Good news for the teams but bad news if you are just a meh receiver on the roster. Such is the case with Williams. Williams started off 2019 on fire. Then he injured his foot, sat out two games and was never the same on his return.
The Raiders for their part went out and got Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III. It is Ruggs that will knock Williams off the WR1 perch. The depth should look something like Ruggs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Edwards/Williams. That isn’t a place where you want to put your fantasy season.
SLEEPER: Derek Carr, Quarterback: Not sure why Carr doesn’t get the quarterback respect he deserves. In the last two seasons, his completion percentage has been 68 percent or better. Yes, he has checked down on 10.3 percent of those passes in the last two seasons, but that didn’t stop him from throwing for 4054 yards last season. He also threw for 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions. And while his receiving corps outperformed most expectations they were nowhere near the cream of the crop.
What they have acquired in the 2020 NFL Draft is an upgrade. Raiders schedule is not an easy one, in their first five games, they will face the defenses of the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Three of those defenses were top eight last season and one of those offenses was top three. And then there is the fear that he is on a short leash, with the making of Marcus Mariota one of the highest-paid back-up quarterbacks.
But if you imagine the Raiders playing from behind, Carr has the weapons to at least make a formidable attack. Last season he didn’t have those weapons consistently and finished with 21 touchdowns and 4054 yards. With Mariota breathing down his neck he should surpass those numbers.
KEEPER: Josh Jacobs, Running Back: With all the weapons the Raiders acquired it appears they are gearing up for a passing extravaganza. Last season the Raiders rushed the ball 44.2 percent of their plays.
Jacobs was the primary running back in this offense averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. He missed three games with a shoulder injury and still amassed 1150 rushing yards and 166 receiving yards on 20 receptions on 27 targets. Head coach Jon Gruden kept saying Jacobs would be used more in the passing game, that didn’t quite materialize.
This season Jacobs is surrounded by a better receiving cast. He (hopefully) becomes the primary check down option for a quarterback who isn’t afraid to check down. Add to that Jacobs has promised fantasy owners who draft him he will be better this season. That’s all I need.
Talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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