Against the Spread: Betting NBA 8/18/2020

Yesterday’s review

3-1 ATS (+6 units)

Orlando vs Milwaukee -12 O/U 225

The Pick Milwaukee-12 (1 unit). I dont have a ton of reasoning behind this one other than the fact that I think Milwaukee wants to set the tone early that this is their year. In the 4 meetings this season the Bucks won by an average of 17.25 points per game and of course went 4-0 against the Magic.

Indiana vs Miami -4 O/U 216.5

The Pick Over 216.5 (1 unit). Again I dont love this pick, howver both teams find themselves getting healthy at the right time, Jimmy Butler and TJ Warren hate each other looks like a dog fight to me. Let’s talk about the health tho, the Heat are at full strength, and so are the Pacers outside of Damatas Sabonis who is their best player. The Pacers still have very talents wing players in Malcolm Brogdan, TJ Warren, and Victor Olodipo. This series has been split 2-2 on O/U, but people love recency bias and tha last 2 games played under. The more I talk about this game the more I like the over but we will leave it at 1 unit.

Houston vs Oklahoma City -1.5 O/U 227

The Pick Oklahoma City -1.5 (2 units). I will start off by saying that James Harden is unbelievable and even more so with Westbrook off the floor but his numbers don’t translate to wins. When harden sits in this game and he won’t much likely only 6ish minutes, the Rockets will get absolutely torched unless Eric Gordon starts shooting well, but we care about the betting. The Thunder actually are a very sound team which is surprising, but thats the Chris Paul effect. What if I told you that Chris Paul is number 14 in NBA history in win shares? You take Harden’s next best player off the floor that tells me its time to best OKC in this one

Portland vs Lakers -5.5 O/U 230

The Pick over 230 (2 units). I’m in on the over this game and I might have some bias on it. I have admittedly found myself rooting for the Portland Trailblazers this post season, but on thing I’ve found interesting is that the Trailblazers are 114-65 with Nurkic at 100% kind of a crazy stat. Lets get into why the over hits here. First off Anthony Davis has absolutely dominated in this matchup and your adding a motivated Lebron James to the mix that sounds like points to me. The Blazers top 3 (Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusef Nurkic) average 69 point per game between the 3. You can add guys like Melo and Gary Trent Jr and you would be at 100 points at the blink of an eye. The Blazers are super efficient team and Nurkic is the most over looked player in the Playoffs. Give me the over!

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